Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

isuska

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Jun 22, 2011
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Ankeny, IA
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in seriousness, what is the difference that these two are graphing? i see a 50.7 and a 40.4.
 

FDWxMan

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Jan 31, 2009
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Des Moines
NAM only runs out 84 hours into the future. Also has a finer grid resolution.

GFS runs out 384 hours. Runs a coarse resolution for the first 168 (7days) and then even coarser, through the end.

Other "under the hood" differences in model physics.
 
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FDWxMan

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Jan 31, 2009
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so since both have Des Moines in the 8-9 range, is that a fair estimate for snowfall for us?

i assume the snow compacting isn't taken into account?

We'll see as we go through this evening. Storm coming on shore tonight. First few model runs tomorrow will be crucial and likely where we would see any major shifts.

8-9 I would say is pretty close to the top end at this point.

Still fairly comfortable with my 5-8" from earlier.
 

mkadl

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Mar 17, 2006
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Cornfield
so since both have Des Moines in the 8-9 range, is that a fair estimate for snowfall for us?

I think everyone is afraid to answer that question, after the discussion this A.M. But here I go--- I have no professional training in meteorology. BUT when there is a big *** L in the middle of Kansas heading toward southwest Iowa. Chances are with ample moisture, precipitation will occur in varying amounts in the areas that receive precipitation.
 

NorthCyd

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Aug 22, 2011
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i assume the snow compacting isn't taken into account?

For some reason, I feel a threshold has been crossed with this question and the absurdly thorough anal examination this storm has undergone in this thread. I feel like the inmates have abused this fish enough.
 

VTXCyRyD

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Sep 2, 2010
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Wow... I knew exactly what was coming. It pays to watch the most accurate forecast 5 years in a row on ABC 5. They were never this wrong. They make channel 13 look like amateur hour.

Just kidding.... I think??

Does channel 5 still use paper flip charts to do the weather?
 

cyfanatic

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Oct 18, 2006
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa
KCRG (Cedar Rapids) just put out their first predictions at snowfall with a strong caution that the totals could change. They are saying pretty much 3 to 6 inches across their viewing area.
 

dmclone

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Oct 20, 2006
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11 inches at the airport on Saturday March 2nd


As far as the snow, 4.2 inches at the airport by Friday.