Predictions - Football

[BvK1126]

Having no experience with Iowa State football until this year, it is hard for me to understand this attitude. Excellence will result in wins. In what other area of life are things judged by qualitative improvements rather than quantitive? Why should anyone be satisfied with moral victories or unmeasurable improvements in competitiveness, determination or effort? When you take the field in football there is only one measure of success. Wins!
I'm not talking about running anyone out of town. I'm talking about evaluating the coaching staff based on performance.
I know that Coach Chizik will not be satisfied with a 5-7 record or one conference win. He is planning to be in a bowl game and not in Shreveport or Houston.

wyckoff9, I want those things, too. And I want them sooner rather than later. If Chizik can give those things to us this year, I will be overjoyed. If he doesn't, does that mean you will consider him a failure?

Let's look at a few of the best coaches in the profession and see how they did with first year or two:

Joe Paterno went 5-5 with his first Penn State team in 1966.

Frank Beamer was 5-17 his first two years at Virginia Tech.

Mack Brown was 2-20 with his first two North Carolina teams before turning things around and getting lured away to Texas.

Barry Alvarez's first team at Wisconsin was 1-10. He didn't put a winner on the field until his fourth year.

Even Pete Carroll's first team at mighty USC was 6-6 and lost to an inferior Utah team in the Las Vegas Bowl.

I could cite plenty of other examples, if you want me to... What's your assessment of these coaches? Are they "failures" because they didn't post winning records in their first year? Should we expect Chizik to do better than any of these coaches with a team that was 4-8 last year and (as ISUFan22 has pointed out) just four plays away from being 0-12?

Like I said, building a program is not something that is done overnight. The coach has to change an entire culture and has to bring in players to fit his system -- or at the very least, convince the players on his roster who were recruited by his predecessor to buy into his system.

Realistically, we don't have the players or the talent to make it to a bowl game better than Shreveport or Houston this year -- if we can make it to one of those bowls at all. As Chizik changes the culture and brings in his own players, the wins should come. They just might not come in droves his first year. I, for one, am not ready to call this year's Cyclone team a "failure" if they don't finish with a winning record. I'm willing to be patient and let Chizik build the program he needs to build to get the kind of wins that you and I both want to see.

 

[AirWalke]

What if you offered it to Tony Stewart and he took it and was excited about it. And he told you, "I plan on making it into a winner. I have won with every car I have ever driven. I have not made any bad car choices. I plan on winning the Daytona 500 with this car." Then after realistically evaluating the weaknesses of the car went out immediately to upgrade it into a winning car.
At what point would you tell him, "Forget it, I'll just be happy if you can make it to qualifying?"

Not one person here is wishing their predictions would come true... it's just how they see it. After the 4-8 season last year, the only way you can go is up, and 6-6 this year would make a lot of people happy. Next year, that would not be the case. What you're describing is a complacent fan base that doesn't mind getting 6 wins every year, and doesn't expect much more.

There will be a time where we expect greatness.

That is not this year.

 

[ISUFan22]

We have a very limited level of Big 12 talent. Did I list 11 players on each side? Not even close. Last year we were both poorly coached and lacked talent. This year we still lack talent (I'd contend, depending on how the JUCO's do, we lack more talent in '07 than in '06 by a little bit) and our players will be learning a new system while getting to know a new staff.

wyckoff9 - seems clear to me you're affiliated with either a new player or a member of the new staff, being you are a new Cyclone fan and seems you're from Texas. I don't want any of the things I'm saying or others are saying to be taken personal by you toward any of our players/staff. We're just telling it how we see it after watching this team last year.

FYI Bryce - we have more than one of the five you listed. Banks is still here also.

 

[BryceC]

Whoops, got a little overzealous there. Still, two defensive playmakers. My point still stands.

 

[RedStorm]

I completely disagree. I'll give you a few names...

Curvey
Jackson
McKinzie

I didn't even include the offensive linemen who are on NFL rosters. We certainly did not lose the weakest players.

Curv is the only one that really hurts. What O'lineman are you talking about? The only one from last year on an NFL roster is Brant. Our Defense is going to be fine. We return a lot of starters and d-line and LB's are going to be better. Mckenzie was not irreplaceable. I think our defense keeps the game close in a lot of games this year and gives us chances to win.

ISU's D did not look so good sometimes last year, but they did pull it together and hold some teams to 3 and outs to give us a chance. Unfortunatley our offense was really bad and could not get any first downs and the defense was on the field all game and worn out by the 4th quarter....I see a much improved defense this year.

 

[wyckoff9]

I don't remember using the word "failure" at all. This thread is about expectations. I am not going to label this coaching staff anything. My point is if you expect mediocrity, that is what you will get.
Coach Chizik took this job knowing the personnel at Iowa State. He coached against them, watched them on film, and knew their strengths and weaknesses. I have personally heard him say, more than once, that he expects to go to a bowl game this year and in the not too distant future (which I took to mean next season) to be in the hunt to win the Big 12 North.
All I am saying is, if those are his expectations then a lot of the people posting here need to reevaluate their picks and find a few more wins.

 

[BryceC]

We return a lot of starters and d-line and LB's are going to be better. Mckenzie was not irreplaceable.

This is exactly what I'm talking about, not to pick on you. McKenzie had 129 tackles and was one of the most athletic guys on the team. But oh, just toss a totally unproven JUCO or a guy that got extremely limited playing time in there and we'll be fine.

We'll get better on the D-line by losing Moorehead (ISU sacks record holder) and Curvey? You're counting on a lot of "if's", and big "if's" to happen to have this even remotely come to fruition.​

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[ISUFan22]

Curvey is the only loss that hurts???

Jackson was a great player for us and the only reason he wasn't drafted is the injury.

Moorehead was a better-than-average defensive linemen for us. Did you not see what McKinzie did for us last season? He can be replaced, yet we don't have that same talent here yet - at least not developed.

And Stephenson is the other offensive lineman on an NFL roster.

As far as the defense being improved...eh...maybe. Chizik runs a form of the Tampa 2. That defense depends a lot on good safety play. Do we have good safety play? Notsomuch.

So we will either get hurt on defense or Chizik won't be able to install his true defensive system until he gets the right personnel (I'm betting on the latter). Even then, we're still going to get hurt on defense. I didn't even mention what we lack in the trenches.

Someone will undoubtedly say "Why do you keep talking about all this talent we had last year and is gone when you say we don't have talent."

Well, we had limited talent - clearly. Curvey was made to look like a average at best defender last year in most games. He had little-to-no help around him and often fielded double-teams. Then, for some games, he played out of position (see Mike Taylor).

We had some skilled linebackers yet they were constantly compensating for the D-line and secondary. Talk about being trapped between a big leak and a broken dam.

This is not a defeatist attitude or one accepting of mediocre play. It's realistic. This will be a good transition for ISU yet it will be a bumpy one in the first year or two. To say any different is either very naive or predicting a truly remarkable season.

 

[mj4cy]

Here is this years football schedule. Lets here some predictions on how the year will go.

Kent State
Northern Iowa
Iowa
at Toledo
at Nebraska
at Texas Tech
Texas
Oklahoma
at Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado
at Kasas

Kent State W
UNI W
Iowa W
Toledo L (we get complacent)
NU L
TTech W (Chizik pulls it out in his previous state)
Texas L
OU L
Mizzoui L
KSU W
CU W
KU W

6-6: of course this is my opinion and its a little wishful

 

[Tweedt4Cy]

This is my gut feeling

Kent State W
Northern Iowa W
Iowa W
at Toledo W
at Nebraska L
at Texas Tech L
Texas L
Oklahoma L
at Missouri L
Kansas State W
Colorado L
at Kansas W

6-6

 

[BvK1126]

I don't remember using the word "failure" at all. This thread is about expectations. I am not going to label this coaching staff anything. My point is if you expect mediocrity, that is what you will get.
Coach Chizik took this job knowing the personnel at Iowa State. He coached against them, watched them on film, and knew their strengths and weaknesses. I have personally heard him say, more than once, that he expects to go to a bowl game this year and in the not too distant future (which I took to mean next season) to be in the hunt to win the Big 12 North.
All I am saying is, if those are his expectations then a lot of the people posting here need to reevaluate their picks and find a few more wins.

I'm not expecting mediocrity. I am being realistic. I expect Chizik to win. I suspect that it will take him at least a year to turn the team into a true contender. That doesn't mean I'm "satisfied with moral victories." It just means I'm being patient and trusting that Chizik's team is making progress. Expecting Chizik to contend for a major bowl bid and a division title in his first year is not "high expectations." It borders on delusional.

I'm curious to know what context you have heard Chizik say those things. Was it in a public forum? Was it to a group of boosters? I expect him to say the right things to get the supporters excited. If you have his personal confidence and he told you these things in private, then that might be a slightly different story. But I have feeling that Chizik took this job knowing full well what it would take to rebuild Iowa State's football program, and that overnight success was not necessarily in the cards.

 

[wyckoff9]

"Do or do not, there is no try" -Yoda
This is what I would expect from the football team.

 

[darts180]

There's a ghost in the machine. "Don't have expectations, you're just Iowa State after all."

The toughest part about this job, at the end of the day, isn't the budget or facilities (we have what we need to win), it's not even the horrible job of recruiting that has been done en masse over the years, it is the lowering of expectations, and the numbing of the masses due to the spin and excuses that we have heard for the past 6 years especially.

JP knows it, and you can be damn sure that Gene was warned about it.

I love you all.

 

[BvK1126]

"Do or do not, there is no try" -Yoda
This is what I would expect from the football team.

I can support that. I certainly expect Chizik to have his players focused, ready, and expecting to beat every team they face. That's what a good coach does. If it doesn't translate into a W every single week, well... that's where my patience comes in. :yes4lo:

 

[wyckoff9]

There's a ghost in the machine. "Don't have expectations, you're just Iowa State after all."

Yes! Somebody gets it!

 

[BvK1126]

There's a ghost in the machine. "Don't have expectations, you're just Iowa State after all."

Here are my expectations for Gene Chizik: I expect him to put a consistent winner on the field in Ames, year in and year out. I expect him to have Iowa State contending for the Big 12 North title -- and the overall Big 12 title -- in relatively short order. I expect that in the (unlikely) event that the program is not appreciably better in four or five years, I will be calling for a coaching change, just like many of you. Does that mean I'm a "dumbed down" fan because I am willing to be patient and give Chizik more than just this season to turn the program around?

 

[AirWalke]

Here are my expectations for Gene Chizik: I expect him to put a consistent winner on the field in Ames, year in and year out. I expect him to have Iowa State contending for the Big 12 North title -- and the overall Big 12 title -- in relatively short order. I expect that in the (unlikely) event that the program is not appreciably better in four or five years, I will be calling for a coaching change, just like many of you. Does that mean I'm a "dumbed down" fan because I am willing to be patient and give Chizik more than just this season to turn the program around?

Quoted for emphasis.

 

[darts180]

Here are my expectations for Gene Chizik: I expect him to put a consistent winner on the field in Ames, year in and year out. I expect him to have Iowa State contending for the Big 12 North title -- and the overall Big 12 title -- in relatively short order. I expect that in the (unlikely) event that the program is not appreciably better in four or five years, I will be calling for a coaching change, just like many of you. Does that mean I'm a "dumbed down" fan because I am willing to be patient and give Chizik more than just this season to turn the program around?

I may be presuming too much, and I don't want to put words into Wychoff's mouth. But the point that, I think, he is trying make is that if you expect to go 4-8, then more than likely, you are going to go 4-8 (or worse, rarely better).

And I am not saying the fanbase is dumb, by any stretch, Iowa State has one of the most educated fanbases in the country. However, and this is just an aside I will get back to the argument, we had a coach that spent, literally years telling us that we were damn lucky to go to Shreveport. And that every opponent was "tremendous." That they didn't accept losing, and then following that with 6 different excuses as to why we didn't get it done.

The wear of that, eventually trickles down, from the coaches, worried about keeping their jobs, to the players (which explains the starts we got off to on the road against anybody good), to the administration (well we get bowl bids, we can sell that to boosters, and we really don't have to commit that hard to the program), and finally to the fans.

I won't single out anybody on here, but reread through this thread. There are people that argued tooth and nail for Dan McCarney. "At least he gave us hope," they said, then get on this thread and plan to fail for this upcoming season. If you were given hope, then it shouldn't be that big of a stretch to have some expectations. And if you were given all of this hope, then why would you give up before we even see a snap.

The simple answer is that we were given a lot of lipservice over the years, and then the North, and the Hawks, went through down cycles, so we could eek out those 6-7 wins. I think, and I may be wrong, that is what is holding people back. The knowledge (smart fans) that nothing truly remarkable happened here, and that a good coach (not a pr machine) would have won a heck of a lot more than Coach McCarney did in his time here. That all comes back to faith, and people invested so much of their hearts into the guy because he was a great public persona, and worked the crowd like no other, they wanted to see him succeed. When he failed, repeatedly, he shook more hands, kissed more babies, did more interviews to talk of the impossible situation he was in, and the constant bombarding of this lowered the self esteem of this fanbase.

People would start these threads with national people talking about 6 win bowls was what we should expect, and people would be INDIGNANT. How dare he say that??? Then there were the real kool aid drinkers that would come on, and explain that's how we are perceived, let's not rock the boat and fire the coach. Be content to go 3-5, 4-4, maybe have a miracle 5-3 year, schedule lousy non-conference opponents for 3 wins and Iowa (the Save McCarney Bowl), maybe win that one, and win 7 games (getting it done for Iowa State). It worked for 4 of the past 6 years.

Now don't think that I am arguing for the unattainable. I look at the talent available, and I am having a hard time finding many wins on this schedule. But, if you take a look at the resume of Gene Chizik, everything has been done to get to this moment. Do you really think that he took the Iowa State job to go 6-5??? I think he is here with a purpose, and will refuse to let all of the obstacles that exist at Iowa State (and there are many), stop him from being successful.

 

[ISUFan22]

Not for a second do I think he took the job to lose games. Yet even he knows winning a bunch of games with the personnel he has is a big stretch.

The man has been around enough to know there is a big talent gap between what is in Ames right now and what is around the rest of the Big 12.

 

[ketelmeister]

Let's face it, we have a tough schedule this year. Improving over last year won't be easy. I see wins over:
Kent State
UNI
Kansas
Colorado
K State
With Mizzou a tossup
And loses to
Iowa
Nebraska
Tech
Texas
Oklahoma
As much as I want to see us beat both Iowa and Nebraska, if the games were later in the season, it would help us. We'll be lucky to be clicking by the Iowa game with new players and coaches. 6-6 would sound awful good to me.