The countdown to college football season is officially on, and with it comes one of the most entertaining offseason traditions—predicting win totals. The Big 12 looks vastly different in 2025, with new faces on the sidelines and fresh rivalries brewing across an expanded conference. Let’s dive into the numbers and see which teams are poised to overachieve—and which might fall short. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arizona – Under 5.5 wins (-150)
The Wildcats are in full rebuild mode in Year two under Brent Brennan, having lost most of their offensive firepower from a season ago which included a top 10 draft pick in wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona limped to the finish line last season, dropping seven of its final eight games, with three of those losses coming in blow out fashion. To make matters worse, many of their most winnable matchups this fall will come away from home, adding another layer of difficulty to an already uphill climb. Even though junior quarterback Noah Fifita returns again this season, I can’t see the Wildcats being bowl eligible.
Arizona State – Over 8.5 wins (+104)
Arizona State’s rise to College Football Playoff contention was one of the most surprising—and impressive—storylines of last season. Projected to finish last in the Big 12, the Sun Devils defied expectations and stormed their way to a Big 12 Conference title—the first time a preseason cellar-dweller has done so since the Big 12’s beginning in 1996. Their overachieving success means the core of that team, including star quarterback Sam Leavitt, is back for another run. Replicating last year’s magic won’t be easy, but with continuity on their side, hitting nine plus wins again feels more than doable. Oh, and they also have one of the best wide receivers in the country coming back in Jordyn Tyson. The Sun Devils will once again be competing for a CFP birth.
Baylor – Over 7.5 wins (+104)
If there was one team that could hammer their over on wins, it would be the Bears. Baylor closed out last season on a six game tear courtesy of quarterback Sawyer Robertson and enters 2025 with plenty of momentum—and a legitimate shot to contend for the Big 12 crown. Despite the strong finish, oddsmakers were hesitant to fully buy in, leaving the Bears just outside the group of teams pegged with an 8.5 total. Key non-conference clashes with Auburn and SMU loom large early and could define their playoff hopes before October hits. If Dave Aranda and the Bears can weather that storm, a favorable home-heavy stretch in November sets the stage for a potential statement finish and a chance at another Big 12 title.
BYU – Over 8.5 wins (+138)
BYU flew under the radar in 2024, quietly putting together an impressive 11-win season, which should have put them in the CFP last season. It looks like they’re being overlooked again heading into 2025. With most of their key contributors returning on both sides of the ball, the Cougars look poised to build on last year’s success. Oddsmakers have set the bar at just eight wins, a number BYU could be flirting with by midseason. If they handle business early, a 6-0 start heading into a high-stakes rivalry with Utah isn’t out of the question. Don’t be surprised if the Cougars are in the Big 12 title conversation again come November.
UCF – Under 5.5 wins (+102)
Scott Frost is back in Orlando, tasked with reviving a UCF program that missed a bowl for the first time since 2015—the same year he first arrived and engineered a rapid turnaround from 0-12 to 6-7. But this time, the challenge is steeper. The Big 12 is a far cry from the AAC, and Frost inherits a roster that could feature as many as 15 transfers in year one. While there’s talent on hand, cohesion takes time, and the rest of the conference is simply more seasoned. A quick rebound isn’t out of the question, but UCF may need a year to find its footing especially with Frost coming back.
Cincinnati – Under 6.5 wins (-140)
Cincinnati took a modest step forward last season, bumping its win total from three to five—but a five-game losing streak to close the year kept the Bearcats home for bowl season. Unfortunately, the 2025 schedule doesn’t offer much breathing room early, with tough matchups against Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa State all packed into the opening stretch. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby gives the offense a glimmer of hope, but unless the defense takes a significant leap, even matching last year’s win total could be an uphill climb.
Colorado – Under 6.5 wins (-178)
Year three of the Coach Prime era kicks off in Boulder with a very different look. With Shedeur Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter off to the NFL, Colorado enters 2025 without the star power that defined last season. Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and star freshman Julian Lewis offer promise under center, but it’s the defense that may have to carry the load this time around. While a return to bowl eligibility is within reach, the Buffs are navigating major roster turnover—and without proven game-breakers, a serious run in the Big 12 feels like a long shot.
Houston – Over 5.5 wins (-205)
Another team I think has a chance to surprise a lot of people is the Houston Cougars. Houston found its footing in Big 12 play last season, picking up three conference wins and nearly pulling off upsets against Baylor, Oklahoma, and BYU—all in Willie Fritz’s first year at the helm. Now, with former five-star quarterback Conner Weigman coming over from Texas A&M and taking over a more manageable non-conference slate, the Cougars have a realistic path back to bowl eligibility. A pivotal Week 4 trip to Oregon State could serve as an early test, but if things click quickly, Houston could be one of the league’s more intriguing risers in 2025.
Iowa State – Over 7.5 wins (+110)
Iowa State is coming off a historic 11-win season and a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game—the kind of season fans in Ames have dreamed about for decades. But with standout receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel gone to the NFL, replicating that success won’t come easy. Third year starter Rocco Becht will be the key for the Cyclones, implementing transfer receivers Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend in the mix. The spotlight will be on a high-stakes showdown with Kansas State in Ireland, a game that could shape the Big 12 title race in Week 0! Still, the real key to hitting the over will be how the Cyclones handle tricky road tests at Colorado, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati. With all the one possession games they played last season, it may very well come down to if the ball bounces Iowa State’s way again.
Kansas – Under 7.5 wins (-184)
Kansas enters the 2025 season with a surprisingly high win total considering it missed a bowl game last season—but Vegas might be onto something. While the Jayhawks lose a chunk of their offensive playmakers, the return of Perry Ellis in the form of dynamic quarterback Jalon Daniels and several key linemen gives them a solid foundation. This team is going to live in the margins, with one of the highest numbers of true toss-up games on the schedule. None looms larger than a marquee non-con clash with the Missouri Tigers—a win there wouldn’t just boost bowl hopes, it could mark a turning point for the entire season.
Kansas State – Over 8.5 wins (+102)
Kansas State has cemented itself as a Big 12 mainstay in the last 10 years, and 2025 looks like a bounce-back year after an up-and-down debut season for quarterback Avery Johnson. To give him a boost, the Wildcats reloaded at wide receiver, adding proven targets like Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford to complement returning starter Jayce Brown. Chris Klieman’s defenses have been a model of consistency, giving K-State a reliable backbone once again. As with Iowa State, the early showdown in Ireland will set the tone for the season—and with improved offensive weapons and a steady defense, I’m siding with the ‘Cats to make a statement this season.
Oklahoma State – Under 5.5 wins (-152)
The old saying goes that Mike Gundy’s teams thrive when the expectations are low—but 2025 might put that theory to the ultimate test. Oklahoma State is coming off of a winless run in conference play and saw an exodus of impact talent on both sides of the ball. On top of that, Gundy is replacing both his offensive and defensive coordinators, adding even more uncertainty to an already cloudy outlook. For the first time in his tenure, it’s fair to ask not just how the Cowboys will compete—but who on the roster is ready to step up as even a solid Big 12 starter. The road back to relevance looks longer than usual in Stillwater. Gundy, who once was the class of the league in terms of coaches, is fighting to keep his job.
TCU – Over 6.5 wins (-170)
TCU had one of the more interesting seasons in the Big 12 last year—racking up nine wins, yet falling to rivals Baylor and SMU in games that stung. Still, there’s plenty of reason for optimism in Fort Worth. Especially with quarterback Josh Hoover returning with valuable experience, and a defense that’s trending in the right direction. If the Horned Frogs can navigate a challenging non-conference stretch that includes North Carolina and a rematch with SMU, they’ll be well-positioned to make a real push in the Big 12 race.
Texas Tech – Over 8.5 wins (-118)
Texas Tech has gone all-in on 2025, landing a top three transfer class loaded with difference-makers—especially along the offensive and defensive lines. The Red Raiders are coming off three straight winning records in Big 12 play, a feat the program hasn’t pulled off since 1997. Now, the challenge is turning steady progress into national relevance. With a conference slate that includes just three teams coming off winning seasons, the door is wide open for Texas Tech to finally make its move toward the top of the Big 12. But is there a coach who has done less with more in the Big 12 than Joey McGuire? I don’t know, but this might be the season to flip that narrative.
Utah – Over 7.5 wins (-160)
Utah enters 2025 in a compelling spot—still talented, still tough, but looking to bounce back after two straight underwhelming seasons that saw them go a combined 13-12 despite being picked to win their conference each year. Longtime head coach Kyle Whittingham rolled the dice, bringing in New Mexico duo in quarterback Devon Dampier offensive coordinator Jason Beck in hopes of jump-starting an offense that was borderline incompetent last season. If Beck can recreate the magic he’s shown elsewhere, the Utes have the pieces for a swift rebound—especially with key home games against Arizona State and Kansas State on tap.
West Virginia – Under 5.5 wins (-180)
West Virginia comes into 2025 as one of the Big 12’s biggest wild cards with Rich Rodriguez back in charge of the program he once helped build. Rodriguez brings a proven track record of winning, but he inherits a roster still very much in transition after three losing seasons in four years led to Neal Brown’s exit. The road back won’t be easy—especially with a brutal home schedule featuring conference heavyweights Utah, TCU and Texas Tech. There’s potential for a spark in year one, but it’ll take more than just Country Roads to get the Mountaineers back on solid footing.
