Yeah maybe so. Not sure how they calculate "normal". I would think there would be more weight assigned to recent years as opposed to 100 years ago.
***Official 2024 Weather Thread***
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Maybe they're using the climatological average, where they average a 30-year span and update that every decade? I think we just moved into a new 30-year window recently.
We are pretty short on accurate, widespread regional data, and it seems that we operate by extrapolating more recent accurate data and then making some assumptions based on what we do know. The "1 in a thousand years" or "1 in 500 years" events could well be much more common that we think.
It's true that we have only had really accurate widespread weather data for a relatively short period of time, but the take home message is that relative to that time we have had accurate data the last ten plus years in Iowa have been incredibly dry. Who knows, this year could be a start of a 10 to fifteen year pattern of wet weather, but if current trends hold up its a definite concern.
I know, but these ponds aren’t running anywhere.
Also checked and USGS had groundwater at 19 inches from ground surface. That would be pretty close to completely full in my book.
I could be mistaken but I thought I read the "normal" for rain, temp, etc. is the average of the previous 5 years, so in effect a floating average
No one seems to know for sure. Not saying they aren't doing it that way but a 5 year floating average would seem to be to short a time period.
I shouldn't have said "normal", how about the average since 1895, when we started keeping official climate records, is in the ball park of 33 to 34 inches for the state. Most people are going to consider normal for Iowa anywhere from 32 to 36 inches based on data, but it varies quite a bit from NW (drier) to SE (wetter) in the state.
U.S. Climate Normals
The U.S. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide information about typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States. Normals act both as a ruler to compare today’s weather and tomorrow’s forecast, and as a predictor of conditions in the near...
This is correct. The current window is 1991-2020. The next window will be 2001-2030.
Yep. The top layer is too saturated so water runs off into collection areas. Hence why rivers, ponds, and lakes are filling up
There still is a slight drought for Story County, but it has improved quite a bit this year. But even with all the rain, the rain is falling too hard and fast for it to seep down deep enough to fully end the drought as of right now. If the same volume of precipitation fell over a longer period of time, the drought likely would be officially over by now
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If it gets to mid June with no planting window there could be the opportunity for prevent plant payments.
If my memory serves me correctly, 1993 was predicted to be a drought year and ended up as one of the wettest in my farming days. Seems as if there were only two "good"days to plant: Mother's Day and Memorial Day. (I know this is a weather thread and not a planting progress report thread
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I think these are just kind of tiny tornadoes. The kind girls point and laugh at.
Just seems weird that if conditions are favorable for a tornado and they tell you to seek shelter that watch wouldn't be issued
Not sure about that. It happens every so often though. Kind of like a “funnel cloud” watch. If that one documented up in Northern IA hadn’t of gotten close to the ground or touched down I bet they wouldn’t have included the take shelter language.
