Illinois matchup

[1TwistedCyclone]

It's not just that the Cyclones play great defense, it's they have played with a deep bench all conference season. I like the odds of Watson and Ward being the key factor in this game. Gilbert gets the assignment on Shannon, but the Watson/Ward combination is what really can set the Cyclones up to shut Illinois down.

 

[Halincandenza]

I think based on a combination of history of coaches who have made the Final Four, history of how teams have fared in conference tournaments in correlation to whether they made the Final Four, and historical KP data, these are the teams that really have a legit shot at the at making it.
Purdue
Gonzaga
Tennessee
UNC
Arizona
Houston
Marquette
UCONN
ISU

 

[Cyhig]

Fair. However I think people are reading too much into turnovers. For example, Illinois had 17!!! TO @ Rutgers and still won by 18 and put up 76. Rutgers obviously isn’t near ISU’s level, but against Tennessee they only had 9 and put up 79. I think this game comes down to Iowa State’s offense more than their defense to be quite honest. If you can score consistently I think y’all win this game. (Probably will need to hit at least 75)

17 turnovers? ISU has forced two conference opponents to over 25 turnovers in a game, both on the road, too.

Illinois is a great team. But Illinois has about the identical metrics as the 2015-2016 Iowa State team. ISU made the sweet 16 that year as well. They faced Virginia, who was rated in the top 5 defense. The game vs Virginia wasn’t really close. Virginia could do pretty much anything on offense as the ISU defense was porous, and their defense suffocated ISU’s offense.

So we have seen this script before, albeit from the Illinois perspective

 

[GlenviewIllini]

They have in my observations a little bit of a "University of Iowa Football" vibe, thinking they are an elite program one small step short of a blueblood.

well, in some ways, they are one of the vey best historic programs to have NOT won a Natty. That is what fuels it.

 

[CycloneErik]

Orange. Cannot recall the last time we wore blue. Would post a picture of the uniforms on here but it is an ISU site after all.

We can handle it.

 

[qwerty]

Here is one....to divert us...outside of ISU, who is your most hated team left and why? and if ISU goes out who are you pulling for?

Down with: Purdue, Duke, UNC

Root for: Houston, NC State, Arizona-kind of. I have lots of friends in NC who are all NC State fans, plus they are the Iowa State version in N. Carolina.

 

[RezClone]

Fair. However I think people are reading too much into turnovers. For example, Illinois had 17!!! TO @ Rutgers and still won by 18 and put up 76. Rutgers obviously isn’t near ISU’s level, but against Tennessee they only had 9 and put up 79. I think this game comes down to Iowa State’s offense more than their defense to be quite honest. If you can score consistently I think y’all win this game. (Probably will need to hit at least 75)

I do think it plays well for Illinois that they aren't really a ball screen offense. I'll tell you right now, nobody not named UConn is doing anything with ball screens or handoffs or weaves against this team.

At the same time, it's not like ISU won't embrace the opportunity to play a team that isn't going to try to gimmick their way a victory. It's like a fastball hitter knowing he's gonna see all fastballs after working hard to hit all the junk thrown at him out of necessity. This team will be excited to get back to basics for once. They are a very prideful individually talented defensive group above all else.

At the risk of going around in circles, you WILL be turning it over 17 times, so that... Rutgers... example you gave will have to hold up against ISU for sure. You can go ahead and pencil that in and throw away the eraser. That being said, I don't doubt Illinois is certainly capable of still beating us with 17 turnovers, and it might not end up mattering all that much if we don't hit shots, to your point.

 

[RezClone]

We can handle it.

I would actually welcome it.

 

[ClubCy]

Here is one....to divert us...outside of ISU, who is your most hated team left and why? and if ISU goes out who are you pulling for?

Pulling for Arizona. They are due and work with a lot of UA alums and they are good people who are excited about joining the Big 12. Creighton due regionality and family ties. Houston due to the Big 12. If we can’t get out of the East it might as well be UConn.

Any of the ACC + Purdue can go lose by 30 for all I care. Not due to the Net comments, I'm just sick of the ACC fans complaining why they didn’t get more teams in. Purdue because they are soooooo brutal to watch.

 

[qwerty]

Illinois averages 84 ppg. I think ISU holds them at least 12 under that. Illinois will score, just not like they are used to against our defense.
ISU averages 76 ppg. I think ISU gets at least that as Illinois defense is average at best.

I believe the score will be something along 78-72 Iowa State.


Illinois is 1-4 against ranked teams this year. A. they have only played 5 games against ranked teams B. they have only won 1 of those (FAU on Dec 5th)
By comparison
Iowa State is 7-5 against ranked teams this year. A. they have played many more “tough” games B. they win over half of those games

Both Illinois and Iowa State are 9-1 in last 10 games. Illinois best win out of those 10 (no ranked wins) is probably at Wisconsin, but Wiscy was not exactly a hot, giant beater to close out the season. They beat 2 double digit seeds to get Sweet Sixteen.

Iowa State has beat 4 ranked teams in last 10 with best game by far the beatdown of Houston for Big 12 tournament title. Iowa State had to beat 7 seed Wash State (ranked #25) to get Sweet Sixteen.

 

[CycloneErik]

I would actually welcome it.

Me ,too. I mean, why not? It adds something different. It's not exactly threatening.

 

[Halincandenza]

His spread offense is credited to Johnny Orr interestingly enough.

 

[ClubCy]

I wasn't talking about the 3's though, because I was referring to the number of 2's/tough shots they kept hitting after we were playing solid defense. That was the frustrating part.

They made some tough shots no disagreement there.

 

[RezClone]

well, in some ways, they are one of the vey best historic programs to have NOT won a Natty. That is what fuels it.

I like you @GlenviewIllini , so for your sake, I really hope you are referring exclusively to Illinois Basketball and NOT in any way to iowa football.

Otherwise, things are gonna get very hairy very quickly! There will never, in any circumstance, be any kind of positive squawk-talk tolerated around here, my friend lol.

 

[rosshm16]

See, I don't think they can hit 70. The defense will wear them down and the pressure will force them into mistakes.

Here are the teams this year that held Illinois to 71 points or less, and their kenpom Adjusted Defense and Adjusted Tempo rankings:

• vs. Oakland (#160, #248), Won 64-53 (Shannon played)
• vs. Marquette (#21, #93), Lost 71-64 (Shannon played)
• vs. Michigan State (#11, #309), Won 71-68 (no Shannon)
• vs. Maryland (#12, #301), Lost 76-67 (no Shannon)
• vs. Indiana (#82, #124), Won 70-62 (Shannon played)
• vs. Purdue (#15, #174), Lost 77-71 (Shannon played)

Interestingly, these were all home games. Their most recent offensive clunker was a 73-61 win at Iowa (#157, #19). Iowa is kind of an outlier here, a high-tempo, bad-defense team that kept Illinois well under 80 points.

We are #1 in Adjusted Defense and #205 in Adjusted Tempo.

I'm not confident we will hold them to < 70, but we have the analytics profile of the teams that have typically done that.

 

[GlenviewIllini]

Illinois averages 84 ppg. I think ISU holds them at least 12 under that. Illinois will score, just not like they are used to against our defense.
ISU averages 76 ppg. I think ISU gets at least that as Illinois defense is average at best.

I believe the score will be something along 78-72 Iowa State.


Illinois is 1-4 against ranked teams this year. A. they have only played 5 games against ranked teams B. they have only won 1 of those (FAU on Dec 5th)
By comparison
Iowa State is 7-5 against ranked teams this year. A. they have played many more “tough” games B. they win over half of those games

Both Illinois and Iowa State are 9-1 in last 10 games. Illinois best win out of those 10 (no ranked wins) is probably at Wisconsin, but Wiscy was not exactly a hot, giant beater to close out the season. They beat 2 double digit seeds to get Sweet Sixteen.

Iowa State has beat 4 ranked teams in last 10 with best game by far the beatdown of Houston for Big 12 tournament title. Iowa State had to beat 7 seed Wash State (ranked #25) to get Sweet Sixteen.

last 10... illinois best wins are tOSU, Nebraska and Wisky. tOSU was playing tournament level hoops surprisingly at the end. The other two are tourney teams, albeit nothing on the level of the teams that are still playing. Illinois has bascially played 5 straight tourney games and won them all...but again, NOTHING on the level of Houston or teams still in it.

 

[GlenviewIllini]

I like you @GlenviewIllini , so for your sake, I really hope you are referring exclusively to Illinois Basketball and NOT in any way to iowa football.

Otherwise, things are gonna get very hairy very quickly! There will never, in any circumstance, be any kind of positive squawk-talk tolerated around here, my friend lol.

you are right...all hoops. We dislike, in varying orders, Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana the most.

 

[GlenviewIllini]

@RezClone who do you think the bears grab at #9?

 

[RezClone]

last 10... illinois best wins are tOSU, Nebraska and Wisky. tOSU was playing tournament level hoops surprisingly at the end. The other two are tourney teams, albeit nothing on the level of the teams that are still playing. Illinois has bascially played 5 straight tourney games and won them all...but again, NOTHING on the level of Houston or teams still in it.

That's technically correct and not completely unfounded, but there are some caveats to be found in there.

It's actually a shame from a CBB standpoint we didn't get to see BYU Illinois. But from a strictly ISU perspective, you won't see any of us complaining about that.

 

[rosshm16]

BYU this year was like a team designed specifically to beat Iowa State.