Illinois matchup

[madguy30]

Yeah, from what I've seen of this booty ball, I don't think it will work well against this Iowa State team. I am a homer, though.

What's...booty ball?

 

[CY9008]

an option for DSM folks wanting a game watch with Ames Lager available.

 

[bawbie]

Just trying to gage the Illinois mindset here, many turnovers do you expect Illinois will committ against ISU? More or less.

Edit: for comparison, last 5 games Illinois committed:
Duquesne 7
Morehead State 9
Wisconsin 9
Nebraska 9
Ohio State 10

Iowa State forced (last 5 games):
Wazzou 12
South Dakota St 15
Houston 12
Baylor 13
K State 20

They also had 15 against Marquette and Rutgers early in the season - and 21 against Southern. More recently they had 18 in a bad loss at Penn State. Those are the only games over 13 on the season. ISU's season average is forcing 17.3.

I think 18 is a good number - we win if we force 18. 15 would be okay. Under 13 would be problematic.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

What site is this and is there a way to find the last 5 games?

I got it off reddit and it comes from the twitter page of https://x.com/CBBAnalytics/

CBB Analytics - College Basketball Stats and Analytics Platform, Scouting & Research

cbbanalytics.com

 

[Cyinthenorth]

What's...booty ball?

I had never heard the term before Sunday nights Pardon My Take podcast. They talked about Marcus Domask and this booty ball thing, which near as I can tell and as @bawbie explained is Domask will get the ball near the 3 point line (maybe a little less, like 15-17 ft away from the basket) and back a smaller defender down into the block which he'll either then turn and shoot over a smaller opponent or when the double comes pass to the open teammate. It works because he is a 6'6'' wing usually posting up a 6'3'' or shorter 2 or 1 from the opposing team.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

It is too long of a thread for me to go back and check, but does anyone remember that we brought Domask in for a visit during the past offseason? Dude could have been a Clone, but for reason($) probably chose the Illini.

 

[CycloneErik]

I've just completed my amateur analysis of the game, and ISU wins 74-70.

I think it's more ISU 74, Illinois 63.

It's gonna be a long 35 hours waiting for this one.

 

[moores2]

I hope this game plays out like our sweet sixteen game against Virginia in Niang's last year. We had a great offense, but not much defense. Virginia had a great defense and was efficient on offense. Now the roles are reversed, I hope that means State will come out on top.

Guess that means Shannon (Niang) is going to pick up 3 awful foul calls in the first half and his 4th foul call early in the second.

 

[moores2]

Marcus Domask is no stranger to a double team, as he, for the most part, is the only one on the team who likes to post up. Morehead State doubled him all game(literally like 17 feet away from the basket) and he ended up with a triple double. I’m sure they’ll be ready for that.

I watched those Morehead State double teams. Domask won't just be able to dribble away from our double teams. we take that middle dribble away and the baseline defender actually does something vs. standing in no mans land on the baseline.

 

[CY9008]

I think it's more ISU 74, Illinois 63.

It's gonna be a long 35 hours waiting for this one.

I’d be SHOCKED if we held them to 63. 78-72 good guys if we’re shooting well and Mommy is wet.

 

[bawbie]

I had never heard the term before Sunday nights Pardon My Take podcast. They talked about Marcus Domask and this booty ball thing, which near as I can tell and as @bawbie explained is Domask will get the ball near the 3 point line (maybe a little less, like 15-17 ft away from the basket) and back a smaller defender down into the block which he'll either then turn and shoot over a smaller opponent or when the double comes pass to the open teammate. It works because he is a 6'6'' wing usually posting up a 6'3'' or shorter 2 or 1 from the opposing team.

That's my understanding mainly from youtube clips of people talking about the game. It's their adjustment for not having a true PG on the team.

I just am not imagining it working against Lipsey - he's so strong and almost always makes the offensive player go where he wants them to go. He's going to have to really work to move Lipsey off his spot, in which case either Lipsey "flops" and draws an offensive foul, swipes the ball and its a runout the other way, or he forces him to the sideline/baseline where the trap is waiting.

 

[RezClone]

They also had 15 against Marquette and Rutgers early in the season - and 21 against Southern. More recently they had 18 in a bad loss at Penn State. Those are the only games over 13 on the season. ISU's season average is forcing 17.3.

I think 18 is a good number - we win if we force 18. 15 would be okay. Under 13 would be problematic.

IMO, any opposing fan unwilling to spot us 12 minimum is not worth engaging with.

And keep in mind, that's the bare minimum that should be expected, so a good faith argument would be something more like 15 realistically, which is still below our Big 12 average alone.

 

[bawbie]

It is too long of a thread for me to go back and check, but does anyone remember that we brought Domask in for a visit during the past offseason? Dude could have been a Clone, but for reason($) probably chose the Illini.

I remember the transfer thread really wanting both Domask and the guy that went to Tennessee and tore it up, but I didn't remember that he'd visited.

I like the guys we got, personally

 

[CycloneErik]

I’d be SHOCKED if we held them to 63. 78-72 good guys if we’re shooting well and Mommy is wet.

See, I don't think they can hit 70. The defense will wear them down and the pressure will force them into mistakes.

 

[bawbie]

IMO, any opposing fan unwilling to spot us 12 minimum is not worth engaging with.

And keep in mind, that's the bare minimum that should be expected, so a good faith argument would be something more like 15 realistically, which is still below our Big 12 average alone.

Exactly right.

We've forced < 12 turnovers in 5 games all season - all blowouts or clunkers

@ Oklahoma - clunker
@ BYU - clunker
TCU - blowout
@Houston - clunker (kinda)
Houston in KC - blowout

 

[GlenviewIllini]

Two ESPN writers pick Iowa State. The bolded part is something I hadn't seen yet...

Gasaway: The Cyclones are excellent on D in part because they force an astounding number of turnovers. The Fighting Illini value the ball -- until they don't. An early-season loss to Marquette and one in February at Penn State both suggest the Illini can on occasion be pressured into coughing up the ball. ISU wins a close one.

Prediction: Iowa State 80, Illinois 78

Medcalf: We all know these two teams are excellent in contrasting ways. But what about the other elements of this matchup? Illinois has been a sub-100 team (163rd to be exact) in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, per barttorvik.com. Teams with those numbers don't usually advance deep into the tournament. And the Illini now have to stop an Iowa State squad that has made 47% of its 3-point attempts over the last four games. I'll take the Cyclones' elite defense and improved shooting here.

Prediction: Iowa State 73, Illinois 70

I think this is fair. Will be a fun game!

 

[madguy30]

I think it's more ISU 74, Illinois 63.

It's gonna be a long 35 hours waiting for this one.

They should make the NCAA tournament a double elimination/play back type of format where the losers play one another during the days of each round so we as totally not spoiled selfish sports fans can be entertained while we wait for our teams.

 

[GlenviewIllini]

It's ridiculous. I've watched about 15 or so videos. I'm not exaggerating when the only ISU pick I've seen is one guy in a betting video who said he's taking Iowa State to cover the spread.... IN THE THE FIRST HALF!

His partner said we can't score and Illinois will win the game by 9. Lol.

so i am pretty connected and those there do not feel that way. armchair emotional types are unfortunate

 

[bawbie]

While I agree with the fact that your smaller guards will be feisty, I think Marcus will be able to get his way onto the block if no double comes. He’s been doing it all year with bigger defenders. However, he doesn’t start from the 3 point line, more like the 17-15 foot range.

But has he done it against a national defensive player of the year finalist - inarguably one of the two best defensive guards in the country (Jamal Shead has him edged out) - who is 4th nationally in steals, second in Defensive Win Shares and 1st in Defensive Box +/-?

That's the challenge. Domask has never faced anyone like Tamin. The closest would be Ace Baldwin at Penn State - and that didn't go well for Illinois.

 

[GlenviewIllini]

I will say, Illinois fans are by far the easiest to troll I've ever encountered. They really fancy themselves as some juggernaut program that's just caught a few bad breaks here and there. 19 years of disappointment hasn't diminished their confidence one bit.

Now the whole world is telling them how great they are. I think we have to factor in that that this is setting up nicely for a massive letdown. This Illinois team doesn't strike me as a group that keeps itself insulated and immune from the noise.

ummmm...their best player has had some major legal issues. regardless, most normal fans that follow the Illinois program respect ISU hoops HIGHLY and frankly would rather be playing Gonzaga. Illinois hoops as a tradition program has been one of the best in the country to have NOT won the title. It is what it is.