Sorry this is so lengthy, but it brings a little perspective to this BCS Thang.
Prefer not to see The Rematch of the Century? I've been saying it might be hard to make an argument for Oklahoma State to jump Alabama and into the BCS title game (lower case intentional).
The consensus argument in favor of an all-SEC title game: Alabama’s only loss came to the clearcut No. 1 team, and Oklahoma State’s loss was “a bad loss.†I think the “badness†of Iowa State is exaggerated, but it’s hard to argue against the logic.
But if anyone thinks it’s foregone conclusion to put Alabama in the title game, a few things show it isn’t cut-and-dried.
We could go straight to the Sagarin numbers, but it's even more telling to look at what wins (and losses) truly entail.
First, let’s compare resumes of Alabama and Oklahoma State.
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams
Alabama 6-1
OSU 7-1
Record vs. double-digit win (FBS) teams
Alabama 1-1
OSU 2-0
Winning percentage of FBS opponents
Alabama .550*
OSU .559
*Alabama played one FCS team (Georgia Southern, 10-2; OSU played all FBS)
Record vs. current Top 10 BCS
Alabama 1-1 (Arkansas)
OSU 1-0[a]
[a] (OU is likely to drop out of top 10 after that 44-10 loss — which is strange, since OSU beating OU would seem to actually boost the resume, but that’s another topic)
Record vs. current Top 25 BCS
Alabama 1-1
OSU 5-0
That brings us back to the "most important" point, of course: “quality of loss†for Alabama & Oklahoma State. No-brainer, right? Alabama lost in OT to what’s clearly the top team; OSU had a bad loss (in 2OT!) to a mediocre team.
OK. I'm not about to argue that Iowa State could touch LSU head-to-head. But how much more forgiveable is Alabama's loss to LSU, vs. ISU-OSU upset?
Here's a comparison of the opponents of LSU and Iowa State, the teams that kept ‘Bama & Okie-State from going unbeaten.
Record of opponents (not including one FCS)**
LSU .603 (88-58)
ISU .591 (78-54)
** Including FCS would actually favor ISU, so I feel no guilt dropping it
Number of bowl-eligible opponents:
LSU: 7
ISU: 8
"But," the SEC fanatic says, "Alabama plays in the SEC West — that requires playing LSU and Arkansas. Oklahoma State didn't have to deal with that double-whammy."
How about comparing the resumes of each team's most impressive win? (OSU: Oklahoma; Alabama: Arkansas)
Winning pct vs. FBS:
OU: .590
Arkansas: .526
Winning pct, removing the best opponent from each (OSU & LSU)
OU: .560
Arkansas: .475
Wins over bowl-eligible teams:
OU: 9
Arkansas: 4
Losses to non-bowl eligible teams:
OU: 1
Arkansas: 0
Oklahoma State also had to play Kansas State (and won) meaning it had to face two de-facto Arkansas teams. KSU opponent pct.: .560. Record vs bowl teams: 5-2 (6-2 if you count Miami, bowl-eligible but self-imposed sanction)
Prefer not to see The Rematch of the Century? I've been saying it might be hard to make an argument for Oklahoma State to jump Alabama and into the BCS title game (lower case intentional).
The consensus argument in favor of an all-SEC title game: Alabama’s only loss came to the clearcut No. 1 team, and Oklahoma State’s loss was “a bad loss.†I think the “badness†of Iowa State is exaggerated, but it’s hard to argue against the logic.
But if anyone thinks it’s foregone conclusion to put Alabama in the title game, a few things show it isn’t cut-and-dried.
We could go straight to the Sagarin numbers, but it's even more telling to look at what wins (and losses) truly entail.
First, let’s compare resumes of Alabama and Oklahoma State.
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams
Alabama 6-1
OSU 7-1
Record vs. double-digit win (FBS) teams
Alabama 1-1
OSU 2-0
Winning percentage of FBS opponents
Alabama .550*
OSU .559
*Alabama played one FCS team (Georgia Southern, 10-2; OSU played all FBS)
Record vs. current Top 10 BCS
Alabama 1-1 (Arkansas)
OSU 1-0[a]
[a] (OU is likely to drop out of top 10 after that 44-10 loss — which is strange, since OSU beating OU would seem to actually boost the resume, but that’s another topic)
Record vs. current Top 25 BCS
Alabama 1-1
OSU 5-0
That brings us back to the "most important" point, of course: “quality of loss†for Alabama & Oklahoma State. No-brainer, right? Alabama lost in OT to what’s clearly the top team; OSU had a bad loss (in 2OT!) to a mediocre team.
OK. I'm not about to argue that Iowa State could touch LSU head-to-head. But how much more forgiveable is Alabama's loss to LSU, vs. ISU-OSU upset?
Here's a comparison of the opponents of LSU and Iowa State, the teams that kept ‘Bama & Okie-State from going unbeaten.
Record of opponents (not including one FCS)**
LSU .603 (88-58)
ISU .591 (78-54)
** Including FCS would actually favor ISU, so I feel no guilt dropping it
Number of bowl-eligible opponents:
LSU: 7
ISU: 8
"But," the SEC fanatic says, "Alabama plays in the SEC West — that requires playing LSU and Arkansas. Oklahoma State didn't have to deal with that double-whammy."
How about comparing the resumes of each team's most impressive win? (OSU: Oklahoma; Alabama: Arkansas)
Winning pct vs. FBS:
OU: .590
Arkansas: .526
Winning pct, removing the best opponent from each (OSU & LSU)
OU: .560
Arkansas: .475
Wins over bowl-eligible teams:
OU: 9
Arkansas: 4
Losses to non-bowl eligible teams:
OU: 1
Arkansas: 0
Oklahoma State also had to play Kansas State (and won) meaning it had to face two de-facto Arkansas teams. KSU opponent pct.: .560. Record vs bowl teams: 5-2 (6-2 if you count Miami, bowl-eligible but self-imposed sanction)