Serious question for the weather nerds. If weather can change from predictions so easily what is the purpose of making those predictions so early? What direct outcome comes from it?
Because it's our job. The forecasted general pattern here hasn't changed much since this thread was first started, but small changes make a difference. The cool weather has been expected for a couple weeks - that's nice to plan for instead of sweltering heat. If the situation had been reversed, and well above average temperatures were expected, I'm sure you would want to know about that too.
Also, having an idea of model forecast trends over time is quite useful for us. Forecasts in the medium-long range aren't going to be constant... but if there's an observable trend in forecasts over time, we can use that to extrapolate and/or get a feel for confidence in a particular solution.
For this weekend... the trends are headed towards a more rainy solution. One of the more reliable forecast systems (Euro) produces an ensemble of 51 different "members". Two nights ago, about 50% of the members had rain Saturday. Yesterday it was about 75%. Now it's closer to 95%. On the other hand... the American model and its ensemble have remained constantly dry. Last night's run has only about 25% of its members producing any rain during the day at all.
To answer the original question posed here... the point of long range forecasts is to give a "best guess" based on the pattern and then hopefully gain more confidence as time progresses. Here, our pattern suggested cool (but probably dry)... but trends in the forecasted pattern suggest more potential for rain. If those trends continue over the next day or two... rain will become much more of a certainty.
This. If the grass lots close that would really suck. I just hope the filed doesn't get all torn up right out of the gate. That could make for some crappy field conditions the rest of the season. If that would be the case I will all but guarantee that CMC gets turf put in.
I'm certainly not a turf management expert, but given the relatively dry weather we've seen the last month or so, I don't think one day of rain would wreck the field. The only way that would probably happen is if we get 2+ inches of rain during the game