Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

"When Big 12 presidents and athletic directors begin meeting Thursday at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport Grand Hyatt, might as well bring your popcorn.

On the agenda is Gonzaga's potential membership in basketball. That alone has realignment implications beyond the Big 12. There will also be some discussion about the possible early exit of Texas and Oklahoma for the SEC."

Gonzaga's candidacy, Pac-12's future, Texas and Oklahoma exit plans on deck with Big 12 brass set to meet

There are a lot of moving pieces for the Big 12 to consider at its upcoming meeting

www.cbssports.com

I have heard a few people mention that OUT leaving before next season is still on the table even though the schedule for the Big 12 and SEC is out. The RUMOR is that both conferences have a second tentative schedule ready to go in the event that OUT is negotiated to happen before next season.

Whether this is just more spin, who knows, but there is at least that possibility out there.

It appears there are some stress fractures starting to appear out west. So we will see if that forces some movement, whether that be their own expansion, or collapse, or them taking a deal that is not as good as they expected.

Reports are that SDSU is starting to use the Big 12 as leverage against the Pac10 as well, to gain a beneficial entry into the Pac. And some are still talking that Oregon and Wash still are pushing for unequal revenue and no GOR, so if that is really true, it would seem difficult to get a deal done with everyone. But who knows. These things work out in strange ways sometimes. And again the way some of these reports come out they are usually very embellished.

 

[KnappShack]

I have heard a few people mention that OUT leaving before next season is still on the table even though the schedule for the Big 12 and SEC is out. The RUMOR is that both conferences have a second tentative schedule ready to go in the event that OUT is negotiated to happen before next season.

Whether this is just more spin, who knows, but there is at least that possibility out there.

It appears there are some stress fractures starting to appear out west. So we will see if that forces some movement, whether that be their own expansion, or collapse, or them taking a deal that is not as good as they expected.

Reports are that SDSU is starting to use the Big 12 as leverage against the Pac10 as well, to gain a beneficial entry into the Pac. And some are still talking that Oregon and Wash still are pushing for unequal revenue and no GOR, so if that is really true, it would seem difficult to get a deal done with everyone. But who knows. These things work out in strange ways sometimes. And again the way some of these reports come out they are usually very embellished.

We live in a world where San Diego State (yes. THAT San Diego State) has leverage.

This has to be part of Nostradamus' end of the world quatrain.

A small, forgotten tribe emerges from the swells to find a land barren and void.

They use this new strength to shake the lands and rearrange the plates of power

 

[cyclones500]

We live in a world where San Diego State (yes. THAT San Diego State) has leverage.

This has to be part of Nostradamus' end of the world quatrain.

A small, forgotten tribe emerges from the swells to find a land barren and void.

They use this new strength to shake the lands and rearrange the plates of power

I like! Well-done.

And, as with all of Nostradamus writing, it can't be interpreted any other way.

 

[HFCS]

"When Big 12 presidents and athletic directors begin meeting Thursday at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport Grand Hyatt, might as well bring your popcorn.

On the agenda is Gonzaga's potential membership in basketball. That alone has realignment implications beyond the Big 12. There will also be some discussion about the possible early exit of Texas and Oklahoma for the SEC."

Gonzaga's candidacy, Pac-12's future, Texas and Oklahoma exit plans on deck with Big 12 brass set to meet

There are a lot of moving pieces for the Big 12 to consider at its upcoming meeting

www.cbssports.com

I'm stealing this from CW's various podcasts...but it seems basketball does matter at least somewhat.

If it didn't, they wouldn't be putting so many key games on ESPN+ from the best conference in the country. You wouldn't put any KU games on ESPN+ if you didn't think it was driving money, I'm sure they also probably know that ISU has the second most diehard fan base in terms of watching and buying.

In my opinion the real long term meat of all of this move to streaming is how many actual passionate fans will actually pay to watch the collective programs of a conference. I think with Big 12 basketball that # is pretty substantial and will grow further with Cincy/BYU and potentially Gonzaga. Houston tbd. I really think we're increasing basketball fans quite a lot whether we add Gonzaga or not given how little OU and UT care about basketball. There's also obviously a core "real fan" who will pay for football at nearly all of our new Big 12 programs.

Those bottom line core numbers are really weak for Pac and even pretty weak for ACC. Big 12 is the only league outside of SEC/Big Ten that really has that.

 

[HFCS]

Reports are that SDSU is starting to use the Big 12 as leverage against the Pac10 as well, to gain a beneficial entry into the Pac. And some are still talking that Oregon and Wash still are pushing for unequal revenue and no GOR, so if that is really true, it would seem difficult to get a deal done with everyone. But who knows. These things work out in strange ways sometimes. And again the way some of these reports come out they are usually very embellished.

If Oregon/Washington get unequal rev with no GOR it's 99% guarantee Arizona will end up in Big 12 quite soon. Harder to say on the others but I think AZ will go it alone if they were getting a raw deal...I'm not totally convinced Big 12 would even want ASU unless they came as package.

A 14 team super elite basketball conference to shame all others. 13 for football but Big Ten was fine with uneven 11 for a long time.

 

[aeroclone]

I have heard a few people mention that OUT leaving before next season is still on the table even though the schedule for the Big 12 and SEC is out. The RUMOR is that both conferences have a second tentative schedule ready to go in the event that OUT is negotiated to happen before next season.

Whether this is just more spin, who knows, but there is at least that possibility out there.

It appears there are some stress fractures starting to appear out west. So we will see if that forces some movement, whether that be their own expansion, or collapse, or them taking a deal that is not as good as they expected.

Reports are that SDSU is starting to use the Big 12 as leverage against the Pac10 as well, to gain a beneficial entry into the Pac. And some are still talking that Oregon and Wash still are pushing for unequal revenue and no GOR, so if that is really true, it would seem difficult to get a deal done with everyone. But who knows. These things work out in strange ways sometimes. And again the way some of these reports come out they are usually very embellished.

SDSU isn't leveraging anybody, neither league needs them.

 

[FerShizzle]

I'm stealing this from CW's various podcasts...but it seems basketball does matter at least somewhat.

If it didn't, they wouldn't be putting so many key games on ESPN+ from the best conference in the country. You wouldn't put any KU games on ESPN+ if you didn't think it was driving money, I'm sure they also probably know that ISU has the second most diehard fan base in terms of watching and buying.

In my opinion the real long term meat of all of this move to streaming is how many actual passionate fans will actually pay to watch the collective programs of a conference. I think with Big 12 basketball that # is pretty substantial and will grow further with Cincy/BYU and potentially Gonzaga. Houston tbd. I really think we're increasing basketball fans quite a lot whether we add Gonzaga or not given how little OU and UT care about basketball. There's also obviously a core "real fan" who will pay for football at nearly all of our new Big 12 programs.

Those bottom line core numbers are really weak for Pac and even pretty weak for ACC. Big 12 is the only league outside of SEC/Big Ten that really has that.

Of course basketball matters. College football happens on thursdays and saturdays for 13 weeks plus bowl games. Plus a couple additional days. Maybe approx 40-50 days of games.

College basketball is nonstop 7 days a week for 4 months. 120+ days of game. Plus, upsets are more frequent in basketball, the pacing is better with timeouts and commercials, it competes with less activities during the winter when people watch more TV, etc…

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I have heard a few people mention that OUT leaving before next season is still on the table even though the schedule for the Big 12 and SEC is out. The RUMOR is that both conferences have a second tentative schedule ready to go in the event that OUT is negotiated to happen before next season.

Whether this is just more spin, who knows, but there is at least that possibility out there.

It appears there are some stress fractures starting to appear out west. So we will see if that forces some movement, whether that be their own expansion, or collapse, or them taking a deal that is not as good as they expected.

Reports are that SDSU is starting to use the Big 12 as leverage against the Pac10 as well, to gain a beneficial entry into the Pac. And some are still talking that Oregon and Wash still are pushing for unequal revenue and no GOR, so if that is really true, it would seem difficult to get a deal done with everyone. But who knows. These things work out in strange ways sometimes. And again the way some of these reports come out they are usually very embellished.

I actually think San Diego State DOES have a ton of leverage. The PAC, especially the Arizona schools and Utah for general student recruiting, HAS to have a presence in Southern California and they're the only option. The PAC needs them more than they need the PAC and as long as the Big 12 is still expanding/interested they should use that to get a full media share from whichever league wants to give it to them.

I could see the PAC with an unequal/tiered revenue sharing model that basically ensures it dies in the early 2030s.

Tier I- Washington, Oregon, Stanford
Tier II- Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Cal, San Diego State
Tier III- Washington State, Oregon State, 12th School (Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico)

One other rumor that I've heard kicked around in Valley circles is that Air Force has asked the Valley how feasible it is for them to move their Olympic Sports to the Valley if they could get into the PAC for football only and Gonzaga is the 12th Olympic Sports member. The Valley has done site visits with Air Force in the past when they were a candidate when Loyola was added. The Valley would then add UT-Arlington as it's 14th member to get into Texas. The private schools in the Valley (Drake, Bradley, Evansville, Valpo) are hemorrhaging enrollment right now and need new areas to recruit regular students.

 

[CascadeClone]

SDSU isn't leveraging anybody, neither league needs them.

Yeah, replace "leveraging" with "bluffing". Can't blame them for trying.

 

[CascadeClone]

If Oregon/Washington get unequal rev with no GOR it's 99% guarantee Arizona will end up in Big 12 quite soon. Harder to say on the others but I think AZ will go it alone if they were getting a raw deal...I'm not totally convinced Big 12 would even want ASU unless they came as package.

A 14 team super elite basketball conference to shame all others. 13 for football but Big Ten was fine with uneven 11 for a long time.

I think Big12 would take up to four P10 schools to get to 16 (the right ones, that is), including ASU.

I think that is more likely than AZ and the Zags and "all in" on basketball. But then, maybe Yormark is all in on basketball and that IS the play. Maybe he can talk Phil Knight into it as well, who knows.

 

[exCyDing]

SDSU isn't leveraging anybody, neither league needs them.

The PAC needs them if/when they drop below 10. Until then, adding SDSU would be counter productive.

 

[2speedy1]

SDSU isn't leveraging anybody, neither league needs them.

Currently, I dont think they have much value for the Big 12. But the Pac I think they do.
Here is what I think they can go to the Pac and say.....whether it is true or not, they have the benefit of the current climate.
1. They can go to the Big 12 and get a deal for entry at full share....or full share at time of start of new contract.
2. SDSU to the Big 12 further broadens their reach into the west and the pacific time zone, late window.
3. SDSU to the Big 12 further opens west coast recruiting for that conference.
4. SDSU is now the only major program available in South Cal.

plus others.

Do I think SDSU is a great get for the Big 12. No, not at least at this time. But they are one of the best gets for the Pac and the above reasons would be significant reasons for the Pac to grab them to prevent them from joining the Big 12.

Again them actually joining the Big 12 could and probably is a Bluff on their part, but the Pac probably does not have the luxury of calling their bluff at this point.

Edit: keep in mind I dont think SDSU brings all these things to the Big 12.... I think this is how they may try to play it with the PAC to increase their perceived value. Which is somewhat already how their AD is already trying to spin it.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Currently, I dont think they have much value for the Big 12. But the Pac I think they do.
Here is what I think they can go to the Pac and say.....whether it is true or not, they have the benefit of the current climate.
1. They can go to the Big 12 and get a deal for entry at full share....or full share at time of start of new contract.
2. SDSU to the Big 12 further broadens their reach into the west and the pacific time zone, late window.
3. SDSU to the Big 12 further opens west coast recruiting for that conference.
4. SDSU is now the only major program available in South Cal.

plus others.

Do I think SDSU is a great get for the Big 12. No, not at least at this time. But they are one of the best gets for the Pac and the above reasons would be significant reasons for the Pac to grab them to prevent them from joining the Big 12.

Again them actually joining the Big 12 could and probably is a Bluff on their part, but the Pac probably does not have the luxury of calling their bluff at this point.

Except besides your last point of their location none of those things are true. If the Big12 thought SDSU had value they would have been included already. SDSU has zero compared to the existing programs in the Big12

 

[MugNight]

We live in a world where San Diego State (yes. THAT San Diego State) has leverage.

This has to be part of Nostradamus' end of the world quatrain.

A small, forgotten tribe emerges from the swells to find a land barren and void.

They use this new strength to shake the lands and rearrange the plates of power

I can see the 30 for 30 now.

The Death of the PAC: Montezuma’s Revenge

 

[aeroclone]

Except besides your last point of their location none of those things are true. If the Big12 thought SDSU had value they would have been included already. SDSU has zero compared to the existing programs in the Big12

Agreed.

And as far as the P12 is concerned, I think they are better off holding at 10 the same as we did before adding G5 schools. They can get SDSU whenever they want. Wait and see if you need them before you dilute the league.

 

[t-noah]

Re-visiting thread now. Wow, 561 pages.

Yeah, this conference reaignment stuff doesn't strike any nerves.

 

[Gorm]

Re-visiting thread now. Wow, 561 pages.

Yeah, this conference reaignment stuff doesn't strike any nerves.

@ChrisMWilliams did mention once that the orginial realignment "megathread" was so large that it was causing performance issues with the forums platform.

 

[alarson]

@ChrisMWilliams did mention once that the orginial realignment "megathread" was so large that it was causing performance issues with the forums platform.

Yep

Alert: - MEGATHREAD --- It's dead

Fanatics - With much regret, I have to inform you that I've closed the megathread regarding conference realignment. This was not an easy decision for me to make. In fact, megathread was like a child to me. But after doing some research, our team found that based off of the way...

cyclonefanatic.com

 

[2speedy1]

Except besides your last point of their location none of those things are true. If the Big12 thought SDSU had value they would have been included already. SDSU has zero compared to the existing programs in the Big12

You are right...SDSU has no value, Never said they did, )this is just what they are attempting to say,) to anyone but the PAC, but from some of the comments out of SDSU AD etc. they are at least attempting to make it appear that they are at least a prospect for the Big 12, in order to strengthen their position to get into the PAC. I think most believe it is mostly just posturing for admittance to the PAC or a better deal when they do gain entry.

Yes it is most definitely a Bluff, that they have a shot at the Big 12, but can the PAC afford to actually risk it? I'm not sure. I do think if the PAC does decide to add no matter what the circumstance, (from their current position or they lose more teams) SDSU will be the first one they add.

But I also dont think they help the PAC much at all either, Im not sure anyone available really does. I have been pretty vocal in my opinion on how little value I believe SDSU has. But the only conference they do at least have the most impact for would be the PAC. No other conference they move the needle, except for down. But they would at least portray that they do, and from some of what I have heard that their AD is saying this is what they are attempting to do.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Yep

Alert: - MEGATHREAD --- It's dead

Fanatics - With much regret, I have to inform you that I've closed the megathread regarding conference realignment. This was not an easy decision for me to make. In fact, megathread was like a child to me. But after doing some research, our team found that based off of the way...

cyclonefanatic.com