Strength of schedule

[KennyPratt42]

Just did some looking this morning at SOS rankings and Iowa St. is anywhere from mid 20s to upper 30s depending on the ranking system you look at. Just for informational purposes for the 'it took an easy schedule to win 11 games' arguments we've been hearing and will continue to hear in the off season.

College Football Ratings Page

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

2024 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

We also pretty clearly played a harder schedule than Iowa, per usual.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

ISU will never get credit until they win a natty.

 

[Sigmapolis]

ISU will never get credit until they win a natty.

I'm sure the SEC fanboys would still say the best non-playoff SEC team would destroy the Cyclones.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

I'm sure the SEC fanboys would still say the best non-playoff SEC team would destroy the Cyclones.

Fragile egos.

 

[0u812]

At this point I just hope the SEC takes a dump in the playoffs....and ASU wins against the shorthorns.

 

[AuH2O]

It’s pretty crazy how light a solid 25-30 SoS feels after the round Robin Big 12 days.

 

[KennyPratt42]

For those interested, here is what the SOS for the last 15 years looks like.

2024​	27​
2023​	30​
2022​	18​
2021​	14​
2020​	9​
2019​	21​
2018​	24​
2017​	20​
2016​	49​
2015​	39​
2014​	52​
2013​	45​
2012​	19​
2011​	26​
2010​	41​

 

[Cyhig]

The big flaw with SOS is it doesn't take into account quality of wins. For example, a team could have a SOS of 15 and went 10-2. But the two losses were against top 10 teams (including a top 5 team) and the 10 wins were against teams in the 35-70 range.

The SOS looks strong, as does the 10 wins. but who did they actually defeat?

This is just a generalization of SOS. Each metric will have their own inherit strengths and flaws

 

[hoosman]

I would like to know how 2024 compares to next year. Are there any numbers for that?

 

[cyfanatic]

The big flaw with SOS is it doesn't take into account quality of wins. For example, a team could have a SOS of 15 and went 10-2. But the two losses were against top 10 teams (including a top 5 team) and the 10 wins were against teams in the 35-70 range.

The SOS looks strong, as does the 10 wins. but who did they actually defeat?

This is just a generalization of SOS. Each metric will have their own inherit strengths and flaws

Serious question then...could you just do a SOS based on teams you beat?

 

[Cyhig]

Serious question then...could you just do a SOS based on teams you beat?

I'm not sure if there is an official metric for strength of wins, but I did come across this (dated Dec 7, 2024)

Strength of Victory for All 134 College Football Teams

CFN's Strength of Victory aims to quantify just how good your favorite team's victories are this season. Find every team's ranking from 1 to 134 in 2024.

collegefootballnetwork.com

 

[KennyPratt42]

Strength of Record is an attempt to adjust for the phenomenon you describe. It attempts to rank you based on how you did against your schedule versus how other teams would perform against your schedule. Iowa State has had a higher Strength of Record than SOS most of the year.

2024 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

 

[rosshm16]

But we only played one Big 10 team and no SEC teams, how can it be good???

 

[MeowingCows]

But we only played one Big 10 team and no SEC teams, how can it be good???

Hey, we crushed our OOC games. Undefeated in those this season and postseason!

 

[CascadeClone]

But we only played one Big 10 team and no SEC teams, how can it be good???

See, its like this... Alabama is actually really good and should have been in the CFP. Sure they lost to 6-7 OU and 7-6 Vanderbilt - but you have to excuse those losses, because both those teams are REALLY good. You know they are good because they both beat Alabama!

 

[rosshm16]

Iowa State had a stronger SOR than 14/18 Big 10 teams and 10/16 SEC teams, and was #15 overall vs. #38 for EIU.

The weakness of SOS is demonstrated well by the fact that Purdue was #7 in ESPN's SOS metric. Who cares about your football SOS when you go 1-11?

 

[CascadeClone]

I always thought a really simple way to do a SOR would be this:

• you get all the wins of the teams you beat
• you get all the losses of the teams you lose to

So ISU gets 8 wins for beating Iowa, but only 4 for beating Houston.
Iowa only takes 2 losses for losing to ISU (lets ignore post season) but only gets 6 wins for beating Wash.

It gives you more credit for beating good teams, and less for beating bad ones. And the reverse on the losing side. But it still gives you credit for wins and losses overall.

Say you are 10-2, but all your wins are against mid or bad teams, so maybe you get 50 wins. But your losses are also to mid teams, so say 12 losses.

Another team is 10-2 but has 2 really good wins, 8 mid/bad wins, and their losses are to good teams. They might be 60 wins and 7 losses.

ISU was 60-11.


Without doing the entire FBS its hard to say how good/bad this system is really, and its too much work for me to sort out. But at least it is simple.

 

[awd4cy]

Surprising the 2014 SOS was worse considering that team played at least 3 teams better than anyone this year. (12-1 TCU, 11-2 Baylor, 9-4 Kansas State) also Oklahoma was decent and Toledo was a 9 win G5 team. Iowa was pretty much the same then as now.

 

[ClonesFTW]

At this point I just hope the SEC takes a dump in the playoffs....and ASU wins against the shorthorns.

ASU doesn't necessarily need to win (hopefully they do) but they sure as hell need to put up a good fight otherwise we'll continue to hear the BS about strength of the Big 12.

 

[acoustimac]

Just did some looking this morning at SOS rankings and Iowa St. is anywhere from mid 20s to upper 30s depending on the ranking system you look at. Just for informational purposes for the 'it took an easy schedule to win 11 games' arguments we've been hearing and will continue to hear in the off season.

College Football Ratings Page

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

2024 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

We also pretty clearly played a harder schedule than Iowa, per usual.

Look at who is right there with us. The rest of the Big 12. If you look at the top 20 or even who all is ahead of us…it’s the SEC and BIG. That means the Big 12 is pretty average in comparison. The only ranked teams lower than us are teams like Miami, Syracuse, Navy, and Army. The SOR def looks better, but when I think of the teams we beat…there are only 2-3 (Miami, KSU, Iowa) that are decent teams this year. Most of the rest were pretty poor. Baylor developed as the season went on and could be added to that group.