I understand why others have mentioned regret/s as the primary reason last night stings. The way I see it, games in which a team plays so poorly on offense in the first half yet is able to not only take a lead in the second, but keep it until the clock hits 0 are just extremely rare. "What if Gilbert had dunked the breakaway to tie the game?" (just one example) Sure, the game could've swung in favor of Iowa State. Or Shannon could've upped his game yet more and scored another 15, having not picked up his fourth foul. We don't need to agree on how many variables affect outcomes, just that there were still a lot of ways things could've gone even if Iowa State had tied the game or taken a lead.
What I saw was, really, the only thing that gave Iowa State trouble all year--size and skill/spreading the floor. BYU had multiple skilled guards and forwards, could spread the floor, and could shoot very well (in spurts, at the least), but wasn't particularly big at multiple positions. Washington State had length and size at nearly every position, but their lack of skill was ultimately their undoing; they weren't able to maintain/find scoring for a full 40:00. Illinois has both. Yes, Domask and Hawkins were largely kept in check, but it ultimately didn't matter, as they were able to see over/through traps. And, while we saw some unbelievable "scrambling" from Iowa State this year, Illinois 1) had enough skill to avoid tons of turnovers and 2) was able to completely spread the floor, such that once they passed out of a trap Iowa State essentially had to roll the dice in choosing which open guy at the three-point line to close out on. Yes, they could've stopped trapping. They did make some defensive adjustments, but I think committed to a down-with-the-ship strategy, which I can't totally fault since their defense had helped them weather storms all season.
We also, again, saw the lack of a scoring threat from any of the bigs hurt the offense. Iowa State's guards--who prefer to get downhill--were already going to have a hard time scoring in the paint given Illinois' height and length. For a large part of the season teams were happy to let Iowa State run motion around the perimeter, knowing they didn't need to guard Rob or Ward at all, thus diminishing or eliminating any benefit of a pick-and-roll. I do fault Lipsey and Gilbert to a tiny degree for being allergic to floaters most of the time, but it's just going to be difficult to score inside when, even if you do manage to get in the paint, you're at least looking at a 2-on-1 (guy defending guard + big, sagging off Rob and Ward, freeing him up to contest at the rim). So, then, your only hope to spread the defense out even a little becomes someone making shots or cutting deftly, which no one besides C. Jones (for a time) was able to do.
No, what stings to me is that fans had expectations about this team. There are undoubtedly disagreements about how far the team "needed" to advance, my only point is this was not the "house money" situation in '21-'22.
That said, I am going to be a Pollyanna (a rarity for me) and say that having tournament expectations, period, just three years after 2-22 is pretty incredible. Falling short hurts, but look at Kentucky, Auburn, Arizona, North Carolina,...--the epitomes of expectations. You can't win 'em all. Yeah, yeah, those programs don't have Iowa State's abysmal Sweet Sixteen record. That hurts too. But this season was unequivocally the third-straight of making progress, and if the key pieces remain in place, next year could absolutely be the fourth. Indrusaitis alone spreads a defense out that much more. Is that sufficient to free up Momcilovic? No, but it will help. Speaking of, I'm not worried about Momcilovic finding more ways to get his shots. Nor that Lipsey and Gilbert will continue to get more comfortable and find more ways to score in the paint, even guarded by length. I obviously don't expect Jackson to be Bacot, but I'm optimistic he can be a more reliable defensive paint presence than Rob and King, and just the threat of him scoring 12+ down low frees up the guards yet more.
It hurts a lot to lose, to lose a close game, and to lose the experience and culture contributions of Rob, King, and Ward. But if Iowa State can keep most of its roster, I think it will still be deep, great defensively, and continue the trudge towards Final-Four caliber offense. IMHO, we can now, absolutely, say we owe Otzelberger and his staff deference and have more than enough reasons for optimism.
What I saw was, really, the only thing that gave Iowa State trouble all year--size and skill/spreading the floor. BYU had multiple skilled guards and forwards, could spread the floor, and could shoot very well (in spurts, at the least), but wasn't particularly big at multiple positions. Washington State had length and size at nearly every position, but their lack of skill was ultimately their undoing; they weren't able to maintain/find scoring for a full 40:00. Illinois has both. Yes, Domask and Hawkins were largely kept in check, but it ultimately didn't matter, as they were able to see over/through traps. And, while we saw some unbelievable "scrambling" from Iowa State this year, Illinois 1) had enough skill to avoid tons of turnovers and 2) was able to completely spread the floor, such that once they passed out of a trap Iowa State essentially had to roll the dice in choosing which open guy at the three-point line to close out on. Yes, they could've stopped trapping. They did make some defensive adjustments, but I think committed to a down-with-the-ship strategy, which I can't totally fault since their defense had helped them weather storms all season.
We also, again, saw the lack of a scoring threat from any of the bigs hurt the offense. Iowa State's guards--who prefer to get downhill--were already going to have a hard time scoring in the paint given Illinois' height and length. For a large part of the season teams were happy to let Iowa State run motion around the perimeter, knowing they didn't need to guard Rob or Ward at all, thus diminishing or eliminating any benefit of a pick-and-roll. I do fault Lipsey and Gilbert to a tiny degree for being allergic to floaters most of the time, but it's just going to be difficult to score inside when, even if you do manage to get in the paint, you're at least looking at a 2-on-1 (guy defending guard + big, sagging off Rob and Ward, freeing him up to contest at the rim). So, then, your only hope to spread the defense out even a little becomes someone making shots or cutting deftly, which no one besides C. Jones (for a time) was able to do.
No, what stings to me is that fans had expectations about this team. There are undoubtedly disagreements about how far the team "needed" to advance, my only point is this was not the "house money" situation in '21-'22.
That said, I am going to be a Pollyanna (a rarity for me) and say that having tournament expectations, period, just three years after 2-22 is pretty incredible. Falling short hurts, but look at Kentucky, Auburn, Arizona, North Carolina,...--the epitomes of expectations. You can't win 'em all. Yeah, yeah, those programs don't have Iowa State's abysmal Sweet Sixteen record. That hurts too. But this season was unequivocally the third-straight of making progress, and if the key pieces remain in place, next year could absolutely be the fourth. Indrusaitis alone spreads a defense out that much more. Is that sufficient to free up Momcilovic? No, but it will help. Speaking of, I'm not worried about Momcilovic finding more ways to get his shots. Nor that Lipsey and Gilbert will continue to get more comfortable and find more ways to score in the paint, even guarded by length. I obviously don't expect Jackson to be Bacot, but I'm optimistic he can be a more reliable defensive paint presence than Rob and King, and just the threat of him scoring 12+ down low frees up the guards yet more.
It hurts a lot to lose, to lose a close game, and to lose the experience and culture contributions of Rob, King, and Ward. But if Iowa State can keep most of its roster, I think it will still be deep, great defensively, and continue the trudge towards Final-Four caliber offense. IMHO, we can now, absolutely, say we owe Otzelberger and his staff deference and have more than enough reasons for optimism.
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