MLB: Royals on the verge of acquiring James Shields and Wade Davis from the Rays

CloneIce

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When I first heard the deal I thought this skewed way in Tampa's favor, but now that I have had some time to simmer on it, I don't think it's as lopsided as originally thought. There are alot of factors at play here that made the price for James Sheilds VERY high, mainly because of the number of teams legitamately in the race for him. I am a huge Wil Myers fan and think he will be a 285/35/115 type guy for quite a while, but the Royals really need a top of the rotation guy and Shields is exactly that. He will eat innings and do very well in the Central.

Myers straight up for Shields would have been a pretty fair trade, if no other teams were interested. Odorizi could have been a number 3 type for the Royals this year, but like many have said, they want a number one and they got one of the 10-12 legit number ones out there.

As for Hochever, I think they NEED to move him to the bullpen. He's a guy who threw the ball hard as an amature and might be able to be a real asset in the pen if he is throwing in short bursts with possible closer type potential after a couple of years.

I think we just need to cut Hochevar. I believe we would only owe him like 1/6 of his salary if we cut him before opening day, something like that. I agree that he could be good in the bullpen, but we already have a bunch of studs in the pen and Hoch would cost ~ $5M.
 

cybsball20

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Royals bet big, get 'the piece' in James Shields after blockbuster trade with Rays - Yahoo! Sports

Article by Jeff Passan. According to this article and his tweets last night, the trade was good and needed. Still don't understand how this could be bad for KC.


It could be bad for KC if Myers ends up being the next Dale Murphy as many have predicted and Odorizzi ends up being a solid middle of the rotation guy and the young core of the Royals show that they aren't ready to compete for a division title just yet.
 

MissouriCyclone

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It's more of what I would not have done. Don't pay for mediocrity when you're a 75 win team.

- Don't extend Francouer
- Don't extend Chen
- Don't spend $13 mil on a serious injury risk in Santan
- Non-tender Hochevar

That puts me approximately $16 million under the supposed payroll limit of $70 million.

- Sign Sanchez or Edwin Jackson for approximately $15 mil a year
- Package one of Crow/Herrera/Holland with Yordano Ventura for a cost-controlled No.3 or No. 4 type starter.

Go with this rotation until Paulino and Duffy come back.

Sanchez
Guthrie
Mendoza
Pitcher in trade
Odorizzi/Will Smith

The pitching wouldn't be terribly improved, but Myers will be an improvement on 2012 Francouer. If not, then go with Dyson and Cain, and watch how much the pitching magically improves with a great defensive outfield.

Conservatively, you're looking at a 2 win improvement in the pitching staff, and a 2 win improvement from getting rid of Francouer. Just as much as the Royals would get from Shields, and without hamstringing the next offseason budget.

So Wil Myers would have brought us to the playoffs? I will miss Wil Myers and COULD be a good player. However there was a lot of risk with him and we probably would have gotten maybe 3-4 more wins with him. Shields is a guy who could easily get 15+ wins in a season, especially against AL central teams. Wade Davis is another pitcher that could get plenty of wins. We have the offense to contend. We've had it for quite awhile now, but haven't had the pitching.

And I still don't get everyone's hatred for Frenchy that they would play Dyson before him. That thought alone makes me sick.
 

MissouriCyclone

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I think we just need to cut Hochevar. I believe we would only owe him like 1/6 of his salary if we cut him before opening day, something like that. I agree that he could be good in the bullpen, but we already have a bunch of studs in the pen and Hoch would cost ~ $5M.

Hochevar has always been a head case. Guy needs to go big time.
 

shagcarpetjesus

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I'm all for the try the failed starter in the bullpen, his stuff will play up approach. But I just don't think it will work with Hochevar. His biggest failure in the majors is that he's an absolute dumpster fire when runners get on base. In his career batters hit .252/.313/.425 when there is nobody on base. With runners on, opposing hitters have a .304/.372/.480 line against Hoch with even uglier splits when you start to get guys in scoring position. I don't know if he's got a mechanical problem in his delivery from the stretch or if he's just a mental midget when guys get on base, but he's been this way for years. If they haven't figured out how to fix it by now, I don't see it happening. And I don't want a guy in the bullpen who ***** himself every time there's a runner on base.
 

Doc

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So Wil Myers would have brought us to the playoffs? I will miss Wil Myers and COULD be a good player. However there was a lot of risk with him and we probably would have gotten maybe 3-4 more wins with him. Shields is a guy who could easily get 15+ wins in a season, especially against AL central teams. Wade Davis is another pitcher that could get plenty of wins. We have the offense to contend. We've had it for quite awhile now, but haven't had the pitching.

And I still don't get everyone's hatred for Frenchy that they would play Dyson before him. That thought alone makes me sick.

I don't think they're very likely to compete this year no matter what Dayton Moore did. I'm somebody that's starting to warm up to this deal a bit too after sleeping on it.

I'm feeling a bit for Dayton right now, as I suspect Glass graciously told him he'd raise the payroll to $70 Million (thanks you crotchety old bastard) but also demanded they compete this year.

Dyson was better offensively that Francouer last year. The thing that just pisses me off terribly about Dayton Moore is that he will buy high on guys like Chen, Francouer, and Guthrie after they have very limited success. I'd rather they use cheap, young players than spend millions on mediocrity.
 

MissouriCyclone

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I don't think they're very likely to compete this year no matter what Dayton Moore did. I'm somebody that's starting to warm up to this deal a bit too after sleeping on it.

I'm feeling a bit for Dayton right now, as I suspect Glass graciously told him he'd raise the payroll to $70 Million (thanks you crotchety old bastard) but also demanded they compete this year.

Dyson was better offensively that Francouer last year. The thing that just pisses me off terribly about Dayton Moore is that he will buy high on guys like Chen, Francouer, and Guthrie after they have very limited success. I'd rather they use cheap, young players than spend millions on mediocrity.


Then it will be the same bull**** you'll see year in and year out. It's been way too long since the Royals have competed for anything. 2003 was the last year they had a chance of making the playoffs and even that was a pipe dream. They'll compete in the AL Central with this lineup and rotation.
 

shagcarpetjesus

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And I still don't get everyone's hatred for Frenchy that they would play Dyson before him. That thought alone makes me sick.

I'm not a huge Dyson fan, but all you have to do is look at last year's numbers:

Frenchy - .235/.287/.378
Dyson - .260/.328/.322

Francoeur had a .287 OBP last year. That is just ATROCIOUS! Add in the fact that he had zero range in RF & I think it's pretty reasonable for most fans to prefer Dyson right now. Dyson had some defensive hiccups last year but I still think he's a plus defender in CF and he stole 30 bases in 292 ABs last year. I'd prefer somebody better than either, but right now I'd rather roll with Dyson in CF and Cain in RF. Add in Gordon in LF & that's a really good defensive OF that makes our improved rotation even better.
 

CloneIce

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I'm all for the try the failed starter in the bullpen, his stuff will play up approach. But I just don't think it will work with Hochevar. His biggest failure in the majors is that he's an absolute dumpster fire when runners get on base. In his career batters hit .252/.313/.425 when there is nobody on base. With runners on, opposing hitters have a .304/.372/.480 line against Hoch with even uglier splits when you start to get guys in scoring position. I don't know if he's got a mechanical problem in his delivery from the stretch or if he's just a mental midget when guys get on base, but he's been this way for years. If they haven't figured out how to fix it by now, I don't see it happening. And I don't want a guy in the bullpen who ***** himself every time there's a runner on base.

Great point. And it always drives me crazy listening to the coaches try to figure out what is wrong with Hoch. Its pretty obvious, dude just can't pitch with men on base. I can't remember how many games I have watched where he rolled for 4 innings, then got men on base and gave up like 6 runs. He is a meltdown waiting to happen.
 

CloneIce

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So Wil Myers would have brought us to the playoffs? I will miss Wil Myers and COULD be a good player. However there was a lot of risk with him and we probably would have gotten maybe 3-4 more wins with him. Shields is a guy who could easily get 15+ wins in a season, especially against AL central teams. Wade Davis is another pitcher that could get plenty of wins. We have the offense to contend. We've had it for quite awhile now, but haven't had the pitching.

And I still don't get everyone's hatred for Frenchy that they would play Dyson before him. That thought alone makes me sick.

I hope we do... not certain though, our offense was actually 12th in the AL in runs scored last year. However, that was missing Perez and Cain much of the year, and with Hosmer and Frenchy absolutely sucking it up. If we stay healthy and Hosmer comes around that could be a huge improvement. Then if we can get anything decent from the RF position (seriously, should always be able to find at least an average bat for RF) we could improve significantly.
 

cybsball20

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Some pitchers get into the mentality that they HAVE to go for a double play with men on base, especially starters hoping to go deep into the game. You really can't translate stats from a guy who is starting moving to the bullpen because it's a totally different game back there and you may only need to go one inning, it's all about how the stuff translates. Look at Wade Davis, he hasn't been a great starter but had a pretty good year out of the pen.
 

Doc

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The silver lining in this deal is that it simplifies things for a halfwit GM. They have to win in 2013 or 2014. If the Royals aren't winning by the trade deadline next year, they need put Butler, Shields, and Gordon on the block or lose them in FA. The players they get in those trades can supplement the next wave of young talent from a still solid minor league system allowing the Royals to have a chance at a run in 2016 or 2017.
 

shagcarpetjesus

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The silver lining in this deal is that it simplifies things for a halfwit GM. They have to win in 2013 or 2014. If the Royals aren't winning by the trade deadline next year, they need put Butler, Shields, and Gordon on the block or lose them in FA. The players they get in those trades can supplement the next wave of young talent from a still solid minor league system allowing the Royals to have a chance at a run in 2016 or 2017.

If Dayton's gamble doesn't work out, I hope to God he's canned before they start worrying about the next rebuild. There's no way I want him trading off the Royals core to restock the system.
 

GMackey32

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After sleeping on it, I'm really starting to like this trade. It's nice being able to say "we have the best farm system in baseball", but that doesn't win you games. Butler and Gordon are coming into their prime years and they would be wasted if we didn't have any starting pitching. It's about time the Royals thought about winning games instead of winning trades.

Myers could pan out, but that's the risk you take with prospects. He could also be the next Matt LaPorta, you never know.

I do find it interesting that the pitcher that is most like Zack Greinke is... James Shields.
 

MissouriCyclone

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After sleeping on it, I'm really starting to like this trade. It's nice being able to say "we have the best farm system in baseball", but that doesn't win you games. Butler and Gordon are coming into their prime years and they would be wasted if we didn't have any starting pitching. It's about time the Royals thought about winning games instead of winning trades.

Myers could pan out, but that's the risk you take with prospects. He could also be the next Matt LaPorta, you never know.

I do find it interesting that the pitcher that is most like Zack Greinke is... James Shields.

I've been saying this the whole time. Everybody needs to chillax! Go Royals!
 

MartyFine

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What an awful, awful trade. This trade confirms that the KC front office has no idea what it is doing.

Shields is not a #1 starter, which is the only kind of starter KC should have traded for. But to include Odorizzi, who was the key component in the Grienke deal, is just unforgivable.
 

CloneIce

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What an awful, awful trade. This trade confirms that the KC front office has no idea what it is doing.

Shields is not a #1 starter, which is the only kind of starter KC should have traded for. But to include Odorizzi, who was the key component in the Grienke deal, is just unforgivable.

Would you consider Greinke a #1 starter? Major league baseball apparently does based on the $150M contract he got this weekend. Well, Shields has been superior to Greinke for the past two years - and he put up his numbers in the AL East (i.e. the toughest division in baseball) while Greinke threw most of his innings in the much weaker NL Central.
 

cybsball20

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Would you consider Greinke a #1 starter? Major league baseball apparently does based on the $150M contract he got this weekend. Well, Shields has been superior to Greinke for the past two years - and he put up his numbers in the AL East (i.e. the toughest division in baseball) while Greinke threw most of his innings in the much weaker NL Central.

This
 

MartyFine

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Would you consider Greinke a #1 starter? Major league baseball apparently does based on the $150M contract he got this weekend. Well, Shields has been superior to Greinke for the past two years - and he put up his numbers in the AL East (i.e. the toughest division in baseball) while Greinke threw most of his innings in the much weaker NL Central.

He is 31 years old. Did you see his road ERA last year?