Are you taking over or under if you set the bar at 8 conference wins?? Cuz anything 8 or fewer means no dance. Even 9-9 would be iffy depending on quality wins I assume.
When was the last time a Big 12 team was left out of the NCAA with 9 wins in the conference? I honestly don't know, but I'd bet it hasn't happened in years.
I think our fans tend to think we've barely made the tournament the last 4 or so years. But, in reality, we've been solidly in. Lots of teams that are just average make the tournament each year. Kansas State last year would be an example of that. Hell, Oklahoma State last year is an example of that. Double Hell, Iowa is an example of that a lot of years.
Look at the field of 68 and you will see a lot of teams that you would consider not any good.