The cubs will make the playoffs because playing for contracts is a huge motivation for pro athletes these days. Ramirez, Pena, and Fukudome are all looking to get paid next year and thats huge. Fukudome will still suck but hopefully Colvin plays more.
The pitching staff will be solid but the loss of Lilly will be huge I think so the staff won't be as good as it could be. I also don't like Cashner starting but they have options if he fails.
The bullpen is solid and will not be a factor like it was last season. If you look at the beginning of the year they had leads in a large majority of their losses over the first two months of the season.
I really don't want to pick Philly and Boston because that's the pick everyone is making but its the only one that makes sense. So I'll take Philly because of the staff alone.