***Official 2025 Weather Thread***

[TornadoTouhou]

TL;DR

CC thinks the cap may be weak enough that there is decent chance of some storms here in central/southern Iowa. Models are starting to show more convection though mainly bimodally- once in the moderate risk from highway 20 to Minneapolis firing at 1-4pm, one a bit further south from Omaha to St. Joseph south of Des Moines firing at 5-7pm.


My gut is saying the moderate risk may be maintained if not just extended south to Ames/Marshalltown which was already almost at 15% tornado risk today. The enhanced 10% risk may get extended down into Missouri given models are showing a good likelihood of storms kicking off down there.

 

[Gunnerclone]

 

[Gunnerclone]

HRRR goes from not convecting Iowa to worst case scenario lol.

 

[Gunnerclone]

 

[WartburgClone]

100% overcast where I am although the clouds are starting to thin out and I just saw the sun for 5 seconds.

 

[Saul_T]

HRRR goes from not convecting Iowa to worst case scenario lol.

ELI5?

 

[cyfan964]

ELI5?

Likely tornadoes in NW Iowa AND SW Minnesota.

 

[exCYtable]

Sun trying to peek through in Ames. Let's fire up them Naders!

 

[Letterkenny]

100% overcast where I am although the clouds are starting to thin out and I just saw the sun for 5 seconds.

What's this mean? Normally I'd think clouds clearing and the sun coming out is a good thing. Reading through this thread, it sounds like the first sign of the apocalypse.

 

[JM4CY]

What's this mean? Normally I'd think clouds clearing and the sun coming out is a good thing. Reading through this thread, it sounds like the first sign of the apocalypse.

If you see the sun today, you better be calling Chris Williams Will-In-A-Day lady.

 

[twojman]

We ain't getting squat are we.

 

[JM4CY]

Sun trying to peek through in Ames. Let's fire up them Naders!

View attachment 148674

"LOOK! A funnel cloud! UNNGGGGHHH!!"

 

[awd4cy]

When max does this, it’s going to be bad.

 

[WartburgClone]

What's this mean? Normally I'd think clouds clearing and the sun coming out is a good thing. Reading through this thread, it sounds like the first sign of the apocalypse.

My understanding is:

little/no cloud cover = better daytime heating throughout late morning and early afternoon = better chance for severe weather in late afternoon and evening

although it is probably more complicated than that.

 

[cyfan92]

Is DSM metro looking safe? I have a 5 pm meeting with a client

 

[Gunnerclone]

Is DSM metro looking safe? I have a 5 pm meeting with a client

“All hazards possible”

 

[Gunnerclone]

70/63 in Des Moines right now.

 

[jaj040]

When max does this, it’s going to be bad.

Must be for Wisconsin though

 

[CoachHines3]

Is DSM metro looking safe? I have a 5 pm meeting with a client

you guys might start the meeting in 1 place and end up in another at the end

 

[ScottyP]

When max does this, it’s going to be bad.

if it was a picture of a pork tenderloin, I would get worried.