Kansas to Big 10?

[FerShizzle]

I am not a hawk troll. Born and raised in Ames. 3 degrees from Iowa State. I build statistical models for a living. Any which way, I don’t see how any of the leftover 8 bring enough to the table to any major conference. Any other conference would be in this position if their flagship schools left. The only thing ISU has to offer other power conferences are inventory and academics. Every model I can think of has us falling short of actually adding anything. I am not sure Campbell will want to stay here nor Jamie Pollard after our athletic budget is gutted by 20 million per year. Every writer/media member is hearing the same thing from industry sources. I just wish more of my fellow Cyclones fans would see the writing on the wall here.

Here’s a scenario for your model… say you have 10 blue bloods in a conference of 10. They play 5 games per week. With an average of 2 blue bloods per game.

What if that conference adds 10 non blue bloods that are regionally close and roughly the same size enrollment. This league then has 10 games per week that average 1 blue blood per game. Are these games worth less than half as much in revenue? If no, then these non blue bloods added value just by adding games.

And this shows what I see as the ultimate problem with the SEC super league… over-saturation.

 

[RustShack]

If you add a bunch of blue bloods, said blue bloods have to play each other. Someone has to lose.

 

[jdoggivjc]

ISU isn’t linked to anything because JP is always very secretive about major moves. The B1G is the same way, which is why Mizzou was turned away because the leaked they were talking to the B1G the last go around.

We may or may not be linked to the Big 10. But the bottom line is JP has always kept his cards on just about everything close to the chest, so this idea that something may or may not be happening solely based on the idea that JP hasn't said anything has always been a dumb reason - he won't say anything until it's official and he has the go ahead to release it.

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

I certainly am not smarter than anyone and I never said I was. I said I build models similar to how a television company would produce a school’s valuation (nothing more/nothing less).

The only thing anyone can and should be sure of is nobody knows **** about any of this. If message board posters or sportswriters knew anything, why did the news that started all of this go unreported for 6 months without even a hint of a rumor being leaked? What you do for a living is meaningless.

 

[Beyerball]

The other driver at the time was in market v out of market carriage fees on cable.

These #'s aren't correct, but directionally accurate. In market the Big10 Network changed cable companies around $5/month. I believe the NYC Big10 Network carriage fees were in market.

Whereas, if the Big10 Network is on a Denver cable system, the carriage fee is around $.80.

That's why Rutgers was important to the Big 10 in 2012. And it's why IA State doesn't move the needle from a Big10 Network carriage revenue steam. While KU would.

I haven't seen if streaming carriage fees have same tiered structure.

in 2012 yes...in 2021 BIG gets $1 per cable household if a team resides in that household...BIG gets .10...Ten Cents...in a state where there is not a team per cable household.

I'm pretty sure...This was the deal Comcast gave them or the BIG was getting dropped by Comcast in like 8 BIG states back in 2018.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

The only thing anyone can and should be sure of is nobody knows **** about any of this. If message board posters or sportswriters knew anything, why did the news that started all of this go unreported for 6 months without even a hint of a rumor being leaked? What you do for a living is meaningless.

These are fair points. I don’t know anything and never claimed I did. I have no idea what ISU is doing except what has been stated publicly. However, if I have experience as a “bean counter” that does this kind of thing, that isn’t meaningless. The only way I can see a value add for the B1G is if we take a half share of revenue for ~10 years. Even then, it will be close. So why expand at all then if you are the B1G.

There are non-model based factors here. Maybe inventory is the goal. Maybe Fox’s algorithm is different. I have no idea. I am saying that any reputable source out there has Iowa State as a negative for all other power conferences. The economics could change if we were in another conference too. I understand that. I am saying it may not be enough.

 

[RustShack]

No one even “knows” if the Big12 would lose P5 status is they stay together or add a few more teams. It’s just assumed because the major pay cut they will take from the media contracts. This is all new information, the PAC and B1G have plenty of time to decide if they want to expand. These are all major moves that are going to take lots of thinking, conversations, and time.

 

[Beyerball]

As for Imperialcy...in 2010...yes financially ISU doesnt bring much to the table for the BIG bc Iowa has the state already. This same logic applies to the PAC Network, which is in dire straights. Adding the state of Iowa is adding additional revenue to the PAC.

Last thing I'll say. This is not 2010. A statistical model is only as good as the assumptions. 10 years from now College Sports revenue will be about subscriptions and fans willing to purchase those subscriptions.

Take a look today at the attendance of BIG and PAC schools and then tell me ISU doesnt bring $$$ value to either conference.

 

[Beyerball]

These are fair points. I don’t know anything and never claimed I did. I have no idea what ISU is doing except what has been stated publicly. However, if I have experience as a “bean counter” that does this kind of thing, that isn’t meaningless. The only way I can see a value add for the B1G is if we take a half share of revenue for ~10 years. Even then, it will be close. So why expand at all then if you are the B1G.

There are non-model based factors here. Maybe inventory is the goal. Maybe Fox’s algorithm is different. I have no idea. I am saying that any reputable source out there has Iowa State as a negative for all other power conferences. The economics could change if we were in another conference too. I understand that. I am saying it may not be enough.

Then KU brings no value according to what you are saying to the BIG. The state of Kansas has fewer cable subscribers than the state of Iowa. The PAC picks up state of Iowa if they add ISU. Not to mention an entirely new time zone which would be a huge deal to the PAC.

 

[Pope]

These are fair points. I don’t know anything and never claimed I did. I have no idea what ISU is doing except what has been stated publicly. However, if I have experience as a “bean counter” that does this kind of thing, that isn’t meaningless. The only way I can see a value add for the B1G is if we take a half share of revenue for ~10 years. Even then, it will be close. So why expand at all then if you are the B1G.

There are non-model based factors here. Maybe inventory is the goal. Maybe Fox’s algorithm is different. I have no idea. I am saying that any reputable source out there has Iowa State as a negative for all other power conferences. The economics could change if we were in another conference too. I understand that. I am saying it may not be enough.

Stop embarrassing yourself. You don't know squat.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

As for Imperialcy...in 2010...yes financially ISU doesnt bring much to the table for the BIG bc Iowa has the state already. This same logic applies to the PAC Network, which is in dire straights. Adding the state of Iowa is adding additional revenue to the PAC.

Last thing I'll say. This is not 2010. A statistical model is only as good as the assumptions. 10 years from now College Sports revenue will be about subscriptions and fans willing to purchase those subscriptions.

Take a look today at the attendance of BIG and PAC schools and then tell me ISU doesnt bring $$$ value to either conference.

I completely agree. I think ISU adds value to the PAC more than the B1G. I also think butts in seats is going to be a huge indicator of streaming revenue. These all complicate the models. Lots of unknowns. I would say the value added potential is more likely KU/ISU in the PAC. AAU schools is huge for that conference. I hope that ISU/KU/Okie State end up in the PAC together. I just think the B1G is the longest of shots (despite it making a ton of sense).

 

[Yaz]

Then KU brings no value according to what you are saying to the BIG. The state of Kansas has fewer cable subscribers than the state of Iowa. The PAC picks up state of Iowa if they add ISU. Not to mention an entirely new time zone which would be a huge deal to the PAC.

I believe the big 12 time zone is the biggest benefit for the Pac 12, among other. Also, we are opening Texas to them as well as CA, for us.

I guess I'd rather go big 10, however, the Pac may be a the best fit at this point. We need to just keep winning. Winning will solve everything.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

Stop embarrassing yourself. You don't know squat.

Never claimed to. I am saying every reliable source out there has ISU on the outside looking in. Not message board warriors…actual journalists talking to people in the industry. They all state it’s wishful thinking for any member of the leftover 8 to be added to a power conference.

This is a reality we must be prepared for. I think the fallout from this reality will lead to cut programs, halts on all projects, loss of Campbell and Pollard. Again, I know nothing. I am just being a realist.

 

[ISUTex]

Sorry, that's not actually recognized. That's like calling Northwestern BIG champions last year.

No it's not actually. Isu played every team in the Big 12 and finished alone in first place. They won the regular season. Just like KU in basketball. For some stupid reason they don't recognize football. They should.

 

[Yaz]

Never claimed to. I am saying every reliable source out there has ISU on the outside looking in. Not message board warriors…actual journalists talking to people in the industry. They all state it’s wishful thinking for any member of the leftover 8 to be added to a power conference.

This is a reality we must be prepared for. I think the fallout from this reality will lead to cut programs, halts on all projects, loss of Campbell and Pollard. Again, I know nothing. I am just being a realist.

The realignment situation just started and there are a lot of things going on behind the scenes and misinformation put out front. Also, are there really any journalist anymore? They are just trying to feed the espn narrative.

I for one won't even accept that type of thinking. That's like going into a football game or fight and thinking you are going to lose. Why do that. I don't get it.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Never claimed to. I am saying every reliable source out there has ISU on the outside looking in. Not message board warriors…actual journalists talking to people in the industry. They all state it’s wishful thinking for any member of the leftover 8 to be added to a power conference.

This is a reality we must be prepared for. I think the fallout from this reality will lead to cut programs, halts on all projects, loss of Campbell and Pollard. Again, I know nothing. I am just being a realist.

They are mostly all spitballing right now, and I have seen just as many "sources" saying that ISU will be included than not. As much as EIU fans want to think ISU does bring a lot of value to a league now because of the current way BTN makes their money, we bring less to the Big 10 then other conferences, but this idea that ISU is Boise State and will bring nothing is crazy.
It does not cost anymore for a Pac 12 team to fly into Des Moines then charter up to Ames, than it does for them to fly to Okl. City and charter up to Stillwater. So the costs are going to be equal where ever the teams travel too.

This is the last chance for the Pac 12 to pick up decent teams at a bargain rate and enlarge the conference into the Central time zone. Adding those eyeballs cannot hurt the way the Pac 12 network is struggling to get viewers, so having the states of Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas calling their servers over and over again is going to get those media companies to listen, thereby adding more money to the other Pac 12 teams.

ISU to the Big 10 is more a down the road situation, very little up front, they already have EIU in the state, but 5 years from now with cord cutting, ISU will be 4th in money brought in from the Western half of the conference behind Wis, EIU and Nebraska. Bringing in more than NW, Minn, Illinois and Purdue.

 

[Rods79]

These are fair points. I don’t know anything and never claimed I did. I have no idea what ISU is doing except what has been stated publicly. However, if I have experience as a “bean counter” that does this kind of thing, that isn’t meaningless. The only way I can see a value add for the B1G is if we take a half share of revenue for ~10 years. Even then, it will be close. So why expand at all then if you are the B1G.

There are non-model based factors here. Maybe inventory is the goal. Maybe Fox’s algorithm is different. I have no idea. I am saying that any reputable source out there has Iowa State as a negative for all other power conferences. The economics could change if we were in another conference too. I understand that. I am saying it may not be enough.

Garbage in = Garbage out

 

[KidSilverhair]

I don’t know anything, I admit it. I think it’s pretty clear there aren’t very many teams left who “move the needle” in regards to a financial benefit to the B1G … Notre Dame, of course; maybe USC; there’s not much else.

What gets forgotten, though, is will the B1G (or the PAC) feel it’s necessary to expand just to keep up with the SEC? If either conference feels like they need to grow to 16 or 20, just for the arms race aspect, then it doesn’t really matter about the “financial viability” of who you add … if you can’t get the 2 or 3 prize schools, then geography and cultural/academic fit begin to matter a lot more. I just don’t think the B1G could really make a viable, financially successful conference that extends from Rutgers and Maryland to USC and Washington … that seems like fool’s gold to me (unless it’s basically two conferences, a West and an East, under a B1G 20 umbrella or something).

Maybe the B1G is fine staying at 14, for now. Maybe the PAC is okay with 12 (that I doubt a little more, I think they’re going to feel like they need to pick up some more members). If that’s the case, Iowa State and the rest of the Angry 8 will need to bring in some more members themselves.

But if either conference decides they have to grow to keep up with the SEC - and that seems likely to me in the near future - they’ll have a “wish list” and they’ll have some contingency choices. I gotta think ISU is at least on the B1G contingency list, and probably higher up with the PAC.

But I admit I don’t know anything, I’m just a guy on a message board.

 

[RustShack]

Maybe the B1G recognizes that it’s becoming a Cyclone State, and wants the current best school from the state of Iowa.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Never claimed to. I am saying every reliable source out there has ISU on the outside looking in. Not message board warriors…actual journalists talking to people in the industry. They all state it’s wishful thinking for any member of the leftover 8 to be added to a power conference.

This is a reality we must be prepared for. I think the fallout from this reality will lead to cut programs, halts on all projects, loss of Campbell and Pollard. Again, I know nothing. I am just being a realist.

No, really, only tavern hoks, land thieves, uteruses, and ESPN are saying that. I wouldn't call a single one of those a "reliable source".