Just a thought before the comittee releases the first rankings...

[Kickedinthenuts]

You can't just look at wins...we also have two HOME losses to mediocre teams. In the BCS, as I suspect it will continue to be in the CFP, losses are bad, home losses are worse, and only an exceptional resume AND lots of help could overcome two losses. Even if we win out and win the B12 Conf Championship, we'd probably need Texas and Iowa to win out AND get some losses at the top.

Would you as a CFP voter take a 2-loss Iowa State with 4 top-10 wins, 9 wins in a row, and the hottest team in the country, or take a 2-loss Ohio State (OU, Title game) or 2 loss Alabama (Auburn, GA)? I think anyone outside of Ames would take the latter.

It's highly unlikely that we make the CFP, but win out and we'll still have a magical season:

1st ever CFP ranking
1st top tier bowl
1st B12 championship appearance
1st B12 championship win
Most wins all time in a season
...and many more

Go Cyclones!

 

[ISpyCy]

Nearly 130 teams vying for only four playoff spots. More than 2/3 will probably never get to experience their school playing for a title. I mean, I'm all for watching UMass play Texas State for a National Championship, but it ain't gonna happen!

 

[ISpyCy]

You can't just look at wins...we also have two HOME losses to mediocre teams. In the BCS, as I suspect it will continue to be in the CFP, losses are bad, home losses are worse, and only an exceptional resume AND lots of help could overcome two losses. Even if we win out and win the B12 Conf Championship, we'd probably need Texas and Iowa to win out AND get some losses at the top.

Would you as a CFP voter take a 2-loss Iowa State with 4 top-10 wins, 9 wins in a row, and the hottest team in the country, or take a 2-loss Ohio State (OU, Title game) or 2 loss Alabama (Auburn, GA)? I think anyone outside of Ames would take the latter.

It's highly unlikely that we make the CFP, but win out and we'll still have a magical season:

1st ever CFP ranking
1st top tier bowl
1st B12 championship appearance
1st B12 championship win
Most wins all time in a season
...and many more

Go Cyclones!

For a name like yours, you sure are optimistic.

 

[isufbcurt]

I think the only hope ISU would have of making a playoff this year is by a committee. If we won out, both of our losses would be to very mediocre teams. Our only hope would be a committee that would take in to consideration some of the obvious changes and progressions our team has made.

JMO but a 2 loss team does not deserve to be in the Final four. Unless there isn't 4 teams with less than 2 losses or a 1 loss team is a G5 team that hasn't played anyone.

 

[2speedy1]

The BCS formula of 2/3 national polling and 1/3 computer average was completely fine. It was the 2 team playoff that was idiotic.

- 4 BCS bowls (before they added the 5th), each is first round of an 8 team playoff.
- 5 auto bids to conference champ
- 3 highest non champs in BCS ranking get in which would have included the best Boise St and Utah teams when they were title contenders. Would also cover ND/BYU.
- Use BCS ranking to seed the 8 teams.
- Throw a bone to the other 5 conference and guarntee a spot to one team if it finishes top 10 or top 12 if you want.

It was beyond easy. This committee has been and will continue to be a disaster. If you must have a small committee for some reason then let each conference chose its own representative and give each conference one rep to form a 10 member committee.

This is what I've said almost exactly for years. With some tweaks here and there. 8 teams is probably the sweet spot, I see it going there sometime, hopefully sooner than later. The system of picking the teams should be a form of the BCS with some updates to the computer and human polls, to eliminate the biases it had to teams like ND.
Otherwise, this would be the best system, until we can get to 16 and offer a spot to all conferences plus a few at large bids. That would be the ultimate with the chance for a true fair playoff. You could then see a cinderella team like Boise St. run the table some year.

 

[clone52]

I think the only hope ISU would have of making a playoff this year is by a committee. If we won out, both of our losses would be to very mediocre teams. Our only hope would be a committee that would take in to consideration some of the obvious changes and progressions our team has made.

Iowa and Texas are not that mediocre. Most computer rankings have them both in the Top 30.

No other playoff team would have 4 wins that would match ISU's wins if we win out.

In fact, take a look at these teams.
Alabama
Miami
Wisconsin
Washington
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech

None of those teams have a win against a team as high as Texas or Iowa according to the Sagarin computer rankings.

 

[Kickedinthenuts]

Iowa and Texas are not that mediocre. Most computer rankings have them both in the Top 30.

No other playoff team would have 4 wins that would match ISU's wins if we win out.

In fact, take a look at these teams.
Alabama
Miami
Wisconsin
Washington
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech

None of those teams have a win against a team as high as Texas or Iowa according to the Sagarin computer rankings.

Alabama will have a shot with Auburn and again with Georgia. I don't see it, but if they lose both I think they are out. (GASP)
Miami is on the outside looking in, but can make a case by beating ND
Wisconsin and Washington don't have a chance, IMO
Okie State has to win out and get some help, but they'd have wins over ISU and OU plus the B12 game. They have a back loaded schedule so not exactly the same as the B1G creampuffs that have easy games every week.

 

[IAStubborn]

I have made the argument they are the two best wins by any program in CFB this year, BUT I think Georgia winning at ND is better than Iowa State beating TCU at home.

Still, I think those are the three "best" wins in CFB this year.

Oklahoma @Ohio State prolly better them TCU at home too. I would agree we own 2 of the top 4 wins this year though (w/Syracuse logging the 5th best win)

 

[clone52]

Alabama will have a shot with Auburn and again with Georgia. I don't see it, but if they lose both I think they are out. (GASP)
Miami is on the outside looking in, but can make a case by beating ND
Wisconsin and Washington don't have a chance, IMO
Okie State has to win out and get some help, but they'd have wins over ISU and OU plus the B12 game. They have a back loaded schedule so not exactly the same as the B1G creampuffs that have easy games every week.

Oh, I'm saying as of now, none of them have wins against teams rated higher than Texas and Iowa, so nothing that proves they are a better team. It

 

[NorthCyd]

Iowa and Texas are not that mediocre. Most computer rankings have them both in the Top 30.

No other playoff team would have 4 wins that would match ISU's wins if we win out.

In fact, take a look at these teams.
Alabama
Miami
Wisconsin
Washington
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech

None of those teams have a win against a team as high as Texas or Iowa according to the Sagarin computer rankings.

And none of them have losses at home to teams ranked as low as Iowa and Texas. That same sagarin has ISU ranked lower than any human poll and barely above Texas and Iowa. We may have some good wins, but those are bad losses for a team that would actually hope to get in to the playoff. I still maintain the only possible chance would be the kind of qualitative analysis a committee could provide, but it still wouldn't be enough unless a lot of teams ahead of us lose a couple more games.

 

[clone52]

And none of them have losses at home to teams ranked as low as Iowa and Texas. That same sagarin has ISU ranked lower than any human poll and barely above Texas and Iowa. We may have some good wins, but those are bad losses for a team that would actually hope to get in to the playoff. I still maintain the only possible chance would be the kind of qualitative analysis a committee could provide, but it still wouldn't be enough unless a lot of teams ahead of us lose a couple more games.

They don't have wins against teams like Iowa or Texas either.

Remove Oklahoma State from my list though. They beat Texas. They others have done nothing to prove they wouldn't lose to Iowa and Texas as well.

 

[NorthCyd]

They don't have wins against teams like Iowa or Texas either.

Remove Oklahoma State from my list though. They beat Texas. They others have done nothing to prove they wouldn't lose to Iowa and Texas as well.

Well ISU has proven they can lose at home to teams like Texas and Iowa. Being in the other position is better, at least according to computer ratings like sagarin. Having an unblemished record, even with a ******* schedule like Wisconsin and UCF, will get you a higher ranking than our two top 5 wins will get you with those losses on our record.

 

[clone52]

Well ISU has proven they can lose at home to teams like Texas and Iowa. Being in the other position is better, at least according to computer ratings like sagarin. Having an unblemished record, even with a ******* schedule like Wisconsin and UCF, will get you a higher ranking than our two top 5 wins will get you with those losses on our record.

It will all work itself out in the end. If Iowa State somehow manages to win out, I think they have a good chance of being Top 4.