ESPN, Fox Open Discussions for Next Big 12 Deal

[Win5002]

The SEC currently has a pretty tight footprint. It will be curious if they have interest in adding west coach schools like Oregon & Washington. The 4 corner schools make make more sense as they would compliment OU, Texas and A&M. But not sure the money is there for the SEC in 2024.

The speculation is the Big10, Big12 and Pac12 contracts will line up before the SEC's current agreement with ESPN is up in 2033. So both the Big10 & SEC can sit back and see how ACC, Pac12 and Big12 develop their media worth over their next decade.

The SEC is interesting because every addition from the ACC outside UNC/Va or VA. Tech/NC St. if unsuccessful in getting the two flagships is nice inventory but redundant to their current market and really a defensive play against the B1G. The B1G wants the markets and NEEDS additional recruiting grounds. The south produces so many more players than the B1G footprint, even though adding California will help.

I have seen on other boards where an SEC moderator has talked about Kansas if basketball becomes more valuable. If the B1G was able to run a sweep on the desirable schools in the ACC UNC/VA/FSU/Miami/Ga. Tech(which does nothing for the SEC) and possibly Clemson. The SEC would be shut out of good expansion. They would probably take NC St. & Va. Tech for new states.

But if they wanted to go past 18 and add new territory thats where I think you could see Kansas, possibly even Colorado for a Denver market to tie in Missouri, OU. Even though it is a small chance, I would think ISU would have a better chance trying for the SEC to have a grouping of the Big 8 schools as well as history with Big 12 and Arkansas isn't too far. ISU is a new state, good academics and solid following. It probably doesn't happen but I think its really a better chance than the B1G unfortunately.

 

[KnappShack]

The SEC is interesting because every addition from the ACC outside UNC/Va or VA. Tech/NC St. if unsuccessful in getting the two flagships is nice inventory but redundant to their current market and really a defensive play against the B1G. The B1G wants the markets and NEEDS additional recruiting grounds. The south produces so many more players than the B1G footprint, even though adding California will help.

I have seen on other boards where an SEC moderator has talked about Kansas if basketball becomes more valuable. If the B1G was able to run a sweep on the desirable schools in the ACC UNC/VA/FSU/Miami/Ga. Tech(which does nothing for the SEC) and possibly Clemson. The SEC would be shut out of good expansion. They would probably take NC St. & Va. Tech for new states.

But if they wanted to go past 18 and add new territory thats where I think you could see Kansas, possibly even Colorado for a Denver market to tie in Missouri, OU. Even though it is a small chance, I would think ISU would have a better chance trying for the SEC to have a grouping of the Big 8 schools as well as history with Big 12 and Arkansas isn't too far. ISU is a new state, good academics and solid following. It probably doesn't happen but I think its really a better chance than the B1G unfortunately.

Honestly we really need to play Auburn.

 

[Win5002]

Oregon and Washington fit what the SEC expansion model has been in the past. They've looked for football strength and want to put the best product possible on the field. Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, and even Missouri (they were a good program when they jumped) are traditionally good football programs.

Arizona State and Stanford would fit the normal Big Ten model for expansion which has been based on market size (with the exception of Nebbie). The Big Ten wants their product readily available to as many eyeballs as possible.

Yes ASU is tied to the Phoenix market but they don't get the ratings Oregon does or UW with a large market. Oregon vs OSU last year got over 7M viewers and had a huge game with Auburn 2 yrs ago just under 7M and ASU can't sniff that kind of T1 or quality T2 content ratings usually. I think the ASU selling point for one of 4 teams would be travel. If they were a travel partner for olympic sports with Stanford, its about a 2 hour flight where teams could play each other back to back. Arizona does seem to be developing more football recruits which would be a positive and they can't seem to keep that much of their instate talent so that could be a positive to the B1G.

I think if the B1G ever took ASU over Cal it would cause UCLA a lot of heartburn.

 

[20eyes]

But if they wanted to go past 18 and add new territory thats where I think you could see Kansas, possibly even Colorado for a Denver market to tie in Missouri, OU. Even though it is a small chance, I would think ISU would have a better chance trying for the SEC to have a grouping of the Big 8 schools as well as history with Big 12 and Arkansas isn't too far. ISU is a new state, good academics and solid following. It probably doesn't happen but I think its really a better chance than the B1G unfortunately.

The geniuses, whoever they are, that allowed ISU to leave the AAU (before being kicked out) made sure that ISU will never be in the B1G. Zero point zero zero chance.

 

[exCyDing]

Yeah...
OKSt
KU
KSU
ISU
WVU
Baylor
Tech
TCU
BYU
Houston
Cincy
UCF
***All of them not going anywhere at all

vs
Washington ST
Ore St
Maybe Cal
Maybe Stanford
Maybe Arizona
Maybe Arizona St
Maybe Colorado
Maybe Utah

This thing is virtually over from the AZ/Utah/Colorado perspective. It seems pretty over with Washington/Oregon. It seems pretty over for WSU/OreSt in a bad way. Cal/Stanford are the biggest question marks.

The only other question marks are does the Big 12 try to get cute and only have one team in AZ and Utah? Stay at that 14 and make your next moves when ACC gets exploded? If Big 12 leaves out ASU and Utah, then best of mountain west could jump to join those 4-6 Pac leftovers to create a league slightly more valuable than current MWC.

I don't think it make sense for the B12 to get cute with only one AZ or UT school. Remember, the B12 doesn't make any money with markets, they need viewers. We don't get the Utah fanbase with BYU, we just get the BYU fans. Same with AZ/ASU. This is why there has been some speculation about the B10 taking Cal, but not the B12.

I'm also on board with taking more rather than less simply because it's possible the P2 comes back for additional teams - Okie Lite wouldn't be a surprising add for the SEC, and certainly OR and WA are P2 candidates. I'd put the ceiling at 6 PAC teams, 7 if I seriously thought Stanford could stomach slumming with the rest of us.

 

[2speedy1]

As much as I loathe how Baylor evaded any responsibility for their crimes, these guys aggressively cover entire big 12 like no other. I’ve come around on them, I actually think their outsized YouTube presence is a bit of a strength for big 12 brand.

Yeah it is amazing, it really is hard to tell that they are Baylor guys, a lot of times. They do an excellent job, better than most National guys, and most other regional/local guys.

It is hard to believe how excellent of a product they put out, and how much better it is than most of the national guys.

Like you said as much as we hate on Baylor, these guys do an awesome job.

 

[lyndal]

Maybe, maybe the SEC, if they want to expand their footprint North. In reality though, fans in the stands does not matter to either the SEC or the Big 10. It's all about how many TV sets you can gather for the networks. The Big 10 already has Iowa, so ISU would have to become a National Brand for the Big 10 to look our way.

I don't think either are likely, but imo, I would think the SEC would come looking before the Big 10 if the SEC was looking to expand North. Plus, we do have some history with teams in the SEC now, with Mizzou, OU, aTm and Texas, so I could see some value in ISU in the SEC in that respect. That is still a stretch though.

I honestly hate to admit it, but without Iowa tanking their football program completely or ISU winning a couple National Championships, we add no value to the Big 10 at all, no matter how many fans we have in the seats.

Definitely some value in ISU in the SEC!! TV ratings would be very good in the upper midwest...when playing 3/4of the SEC. But probably not for the big 10

 

[jcyclonee]

Yes ASU is tied to the Phoenix market but they don't get the ratings Oregon does or UW with a large market. Oregon vs OSU last year got over 7M viewers and had a huge game with Auburn 2 yrs ago just under 7M and ASU can't sniff that kind of T1 or quality T2 content ratings usually. I think the ASU selling point for one of 4 teams would be travel. If they were a travel partner for olympic sports with Stanford, its about a 2 hour flight where teams could play each other back to back. Arizona does seem to be developing more football recruits which would be a positive and they can't seem to keep that much of their instate talent so that could be a positive to the B1G.

I think if the B1G ever took ASU over Cal it would cause UCLA a lot of heartburn.

I know you have a very good point about viewers but Rutgers and Maryland don't bring much in the way of viewership. Neither does UCLA. It's not that the BIG doesn't care at all about ratings but they've been expanding based upon markets more than viewership. That being said, Seattle, and to a lesser degree Portland, aren't small markets and ratings do matter to a certain extent and will probably matter more in the future.

 

[KnappShack]

Savage

 

[2speedy1]

Maybe, maybe the SEC, if they want to expand their footprint North. In reality though, fans in the stands does not matter to either the SEC or the Big 10. It's all about how many TV sets you can gather for the networks. The Big 10 already has Iowa, so ISU would have to become a National Brand for the Big 10 to look our way.

I don't think either are likely, but imo, I would think the SEC would come looking before the Big 10 if the SEC was looking to expand North. Plus, we do have some history with teams in the SEC now, with Mizzou, OU, aTm and Texas, so I could see some value in ISU in the SEC in that respect. That is still a stretch though.

I honestly hate to admit it, but without Iowa tanking their football program completely or ISU winning a couple National Championships, we add no value to the Big 10 at all, no matter how many fans we have in the seats.

Honestly, I have always gagged at ISU in the SEC, and thought it was crazy to think about it, but in reality it is not terrible. And in the current climate I give a move to the SEC more of a shot than that of a move to the B1G. Still VERY unlikely, but in the grand scheme of things if there is a push to get to 24+ teams in the SEC and B1G, I see the SEC looking at ISU before the B1G does.

Lets look at current/future members. Mizzu, OU, aTM, UT, Ark
Then other probable adds from the B12, OKSt, TT....

That would not be too bad. I dont thing that happens until they push to go to at least 24. And then we would have to see how we fit compared to the rest of those out there and how far they want to spread, adding new zones out west, but at least we would be a new market for them. But in the end it would be a real long shot, but probably better than the B1G at this point.

 

[isucy86]

Yeah...
OKSt
KU
KSU
ISU
WVU
Baylor
Tech
TCU
BYU
Houston
Cincy
UCF
***All of them not going anywhere at all

vs
Washington ST
Ore St
Maybe Cal
Maybe Stanford
Maybe Arizona
Maybe Arizona St
Maybe Colorado
Maybe Utah

This thing is virtually over from the AZ/Utah/Colorado perspective. It seems pretty over with Washington/Oregon. It seems pretty over for WSU/OreSt in a bad way. Cal/Stanford are the biggest question marks.

The only other question marks are does the Big 12 try to get cute and only have one team in AZ and Utah? Stay at that 14 and make your next moves when ACC gets exploded? If Big 12 leaves out ASU and Utah, then best of mountain west could jump to join those 4-6 Pac leftovers to create a league slightly more valuable than current MWC.

IMO Utah is too good of a program on the field and fan base to not get gobbled up by the Big12. Even if it gives the conference 2 teams in Utah. Nothing new for the Big12, we have had 2 schools in Kansas and Oklahoma. Times have changed, but I still think Utah & BYU are both top schools and would give the Big12 a great in-conference rivalry game.

Also if the Big10 & SEC are at 16, it might be critical for the Big12 to be at 16 or more teams before the ACC gets divided up. TV Networks will give direction on who they value, but I think bigger is better for the Big12.

 

[HFCS]

Oregon and Washington fit what the SEC expansion model has been in the past. They've looked for football strength and want to put the best product possible on the field. Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, and even Missouri (they were a good program when they jumped) are traditionally good football programs.

Arizona State and Stanford would fit the normal Big Ten model for expansion which has been based on market size (with the exception of Nebbie). The Big Ten wants their product readily available to as many eyeballs as possible.

Good point. Big ten made the ultimate add with PSU, then 3 bad football programs, then USC and an average fb program with little fan support.

Other than recent Texas, SEC is adding strength and rumored to be wanting more with likes of Clemson. I don’t know how Arkansas was when they added 30+ years ago.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Savage

The replies to Canzano’s tweet are golden. While most people are rightfully dragging him, several clueless folks are saying it’s Big 12 schools asking about joining the PAC, lol.

Then one guy says the PAC should “just take” Baylor, Tech, Kansas and SDSU to make them the top basketball conference. Like those Big 12 teams are just sitting around waiting for the PAC to swoop in and carry them away.

 

[HFCS]

Honestly, I have always gagged at ISU in the SEC, and thought it was crazy to think about it, but in reality it is not terrible. And in the current climate I give a move to the SEC more of a shot than that of a move to the B1G. Still VERY unlikely, but in the grand scheme of things if there is a push to get to 24+ teams in the SEC and B1G, I see the SEC looking at ISU before the B1G does.

Lets look at current/future members. Mizzu, OU, aTM, UT, Ark
Then other probable adds from the B12, OKSt, TT....

That would not be too bad. I dont thing that happens until they push to go to at least 24. And then we would have to see how we fit compared to the rest of those out there and how far they want to spread, adding new zones out west, but at least we would be a new market for them. But in the end it would be a real long shot, but probably better than the B1G at this point.

If SEC feels like they need to expand markets they can do it around their outer edges with big 12 and ACC. West coast is done for them Even as “super league” imho.

If it’s really power 2 and power 2 wants to grow rather than contract the sport, some day they will need to add programs outside their footprint.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

The replies to Canzano’s tweet are golden. While most people are rightfully dragging him, several clueless folks are saying it’s Big 12 schools asking about joining the PAC, lol.

Then one guy says the PAC should “just take” Baylor, Tech, Kansas and SDSU to make them the top basketball conference. Like those Big 12 teams are just sitting around waiting for the PAC to swoop in and carry them away.

Maybe it's the administrator that said Cal should just go to the B1G during their meetings.

 

[Gonzo]

Good point. Big ten made the ultimate add with PSU, then 3 bad football programs, then USC and an average fb program with little fan support.

Other than recent Texas, SEC is adding strength and rumored to be wanting more with likes of Clemson. I don’t know how Arkansas was when they added 30+ years ago.

When the B1G added Nebby, they had won/shared 3 straight Big 12 North titles, and 4 of the previous 5. They were also coming off two straight 10-win seasons. I wouldn't put them on the level of Rutgers and Maryland at the time of joining.

 

[DurangoCy]

Come again? I'm further behind than I thought. Why on earth would the SEC want Arizona?

They need another bottom feeder football team to lose games?

 

[HFCS]

When the B1G added Nebby, they had won/shared 3 straight Big 12 North titles, and 4 of the previous 5. They were also coming off two straight 10-win seasons. I wouldn't put them on the level of Rutgers and Maryland at the time of joining.

Dude my whole post was a Nebraska dig ;-)

The fact they are Rutgers peer (or inferior) now is gold and I fail to see the resources they have even compared to IA/WI/MN to dig themselves out. They’re a smaller population more remote outpost than those programs with a big ego problem.

Unlike OU, they aren’t next door to Texas with a decent climate. They’re done.

I will be curious to see what happens to programs like Rutgers, Neb, Purdue etc with more money. They’ve already been making a boatload off media and plenty of G5 teams field better teams.

Iowa and Wisc are in a place where they’d be steady with or without the Scrooge mcduck money pool. Will that cash lift up the teams that suck or will they just suck with luxuries and a new coach every 18 months?

 

[Klubber]

The geniuses, whoever they are, that allowed ISU to leave the AAU (before being kicked out) made sure that ISU will never be in the B1G. Zero point zero zero chance.

You better tell Nebraska they're about to be kicked out then.

 

[jctisu]

If SEC feels like they need to expand markets they can do it around their outer edges with big 12 and ACC. West coast is done for them Even as “super league” imho.

If it’s really power 2 and power 2 wants to grow rather than contract the sport, some day they will need to add programs outside their footprint.

Not saying it matters, but the SEC is a tad different in that actual gameday environment and tradition is more their thing. Not saying the Big 10 doesn't have that because they most definitely do. But the SEC is basically the Big 12 on steroids due to the number of good to great programs. But Starkville, Gainesville, College Station, Tuscaloosa, Fayetteville, Oxford, and on and on is exactly what the Big 12 is for the most part. Smaller towns/cities where the fanbases are crazy and show up to party and fill the stadium. The football team is everything to those people.

Again, I am with others that the SEC is a very very very long shot for ISU, but should this thing get to 24 teams apiece for the P2, it's not out of the realm of possibility.