ESPN+,.....BIG XII is killing itself!

[MuskieCy]

I say good. So many fake ID's in major football.

The awesome Big 12 has been nearly eliminated from CFP contention​

Current CFP odds:
Texas: 6% (preseason: 13%)
TCU: 5% (preseason: 0%)
Oklahoma State: 4% (preseason: 4%)

Big 12 title odds, per SP+:
Texas 26% (preseason: 12%)
TCU 19% (preseason: 3%)
Oklahoma State 18% (preseason: 14%)
Kansas State 17% (preseason: 4%)
Oklahoma 9% (preseason: 55%)
Baylor 8% (preseason: 9%)

The Pac-12 legitimately stunk in 2021, but in the early years of the Pac-12's playoff drought, the drought itself was used as proof of the conference's poor quality. I always thought this was unfair -- on paper, the conference was better and deeper than the ACC in most years, but the ACC had Clemson and was therefore guaranteed an annual CFP spot. If Oregon or USC had dominated a lesser Pac-12 and scored CFP bids, would that have really proven the conference was good?

Editor's Picks​

In 2022, the Big 12 is performing like an extreme version of the Pac-12. Its average SP+ rating is 13.8, second best behind only the SEC. Every team in the conference is ranked 55th or better, and the only reason Kansas (the No. 55 team) is that low is that preseason projections still play a significant role in the ratings. (Well, that and the Jayhawks slipped a few spots after Saturday's mediocre performance in a 14-11 win over Iowa State.)

The conference has six teams in the SP+ top 25 -- more than half of its roster! Every single week features at least one extremely important tossup game between conference contenders. But it's looking increasingly clear that the Big 12 probably won't have a CFP team. TCU and Oklahoma State are both unbeaten, but they haven't proven themselves dramatically superior to their peers, and SP+ gives both only a 1% chance of reaching 12-0. Both FPI and SP+ adore Texas, but despite the Predictor's slight optimism you have to feel the two-loss Longhorns are going to end up well out of the Playoff conversation.

If we had a 12-team CFP in 2022, the general narrative for this conference would shift dramatically. It would be virtually guaranteed at least one participant, and said participant would have an excellent chance of beating anyone outside of the nation's top three. Instead, the Big 12 will probably have to settle for enjoying a rather successful bowl season. A solid consolation, sure, but consolation all the same.

​

 

[Cyclonepride]

How stupid is it that a 2 loss Texas team has better odds than undefeated OSU and TCU?

 

[8bitnes]

How stupid is it that a 2 loss Texas team has better odds than undefeated OSU and TCU?

Is it because the prediction models have that two loss team beating OSU+TCU?

 

[sdclone]

How stupid is it that a 2 loss Texas team has better odds than undefeated OSU and TCU?

Because its Texas.....

 

[intrepid27]

This is the second week in a row that all the Big XII games have point spreads of no more than 10. Talk about parity.

 

[quasistellar]

I mean, before the season even started I thought Big XII would be lucky to have a team make the playoff. It's no secret it's a down year in this conference.

The bigger problem than some of the top teams being down is that there's no free wins at the bottom.

It really doesn't bother me, though, since IMO any team we send to a playoff will get blasted by Georgia or Alabama.

 

[Malty Flannel]

Looking forward to ISU handing OSU it's only regular season loss and keeping them from the playoff again.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I mean, before the season even started I thought Big XII would be lucky to have a team make the playoff. It's no secret it's a down year in this conference.

The bigger problem than some of the top teams being down is that there's no free wins at the bottom.

It really doesn't bother me, though, since IMO any team we send to a playoff will get blasted by Georgia or Alabama.

The bolded is correct but still, other teams deserve to enjoy/benefit from the spoils of being a playoff team. It can't just be about 2-4 teams every year. Part of the reason the Big 12 doesn't get much playoff love is because outside of Texas and OU a one loss team is never going to get in simply due to the negative opinions about the conference.

 

[quasistellar]

Big 12 isn't out of it yet, but I just don't see a team that'll make a 4 team playoff with 1 loss.

More a problem with the current (outgoing) playoff system than the Big 12 level of play, IMO.

 

[Cyclad]

I say good. So many fake ID's in major football.

The awesome Big 12 has been nearly eliminated from CFP contention​

Current CFP odds:
Texas: 6% (preseason: 13%)
TCU: 5% (preseason: 0%)
Oklahoma State: 4% (preseason: 4%)

Big 12 title odds, per SP+:
Texas 26% (preseason: 12%)
TCU 19% (preseason: 3%)
Oklahoma State 18% (preseason: 14%)
Kansas State 17% (preseason: 4%)
Oklahoma 9% (preseason: 55%)
Baylor 8% (preseason: 9%)

The Pac-12 legitimately stunk in 2021, but in the early years of the Pac-12's playoff drought, the drought itself was used as proof of the conference's poor quality. I always thought this was unfair -- on paper, the conference was better and deeper than the ACC in most years, but the ACC had Clemson and was therefore guaranteed an annual CFP spot. If Oregon or USC had dominated a lesser Pac-12 and scored CFP bids, would that have really proven the conference was good?

Editor's Picks​

In 2022, the Big 12 is performing like an extreme version of the Pac-12. Its average SP+ rating is 13.8, second best behind only the SEC. Every team in the conference is ranked 55th or better, and the only reason Kansas (the No. 55 team) is that low is that preseason projections still play a significant role in the ratings. (Well, that and the Jayhawks slipped a few spots after Saturday's mediocre performance in a 14-11 win over Iowa State.)

The conference has six teams in the SP+ top 25 -- more than half of its roster! Every single week features at least one extremely important tossup game between conference contenders. But it's looking increasingly clear that the Big 12 probably won't have a CFP team. TCU and Oklahoma State are both unbeaten, but they haven't proven themselves dramatically superior to their peers, and SP+ gives both only a 1% chance of reaching 12-0. Both FPI and SP+ adore Texas, but despite the Predictor's slight optimism you have to feel the two-loss Longhorns are going to end up well out of the Playoff conversation.

If we had a 12-team CFP in 2022, the general narrative for this conference would shift dramatically. It would be virtually guaranteed at least one participant, and said participant would have an excellent chance of beating anyone outside of the nation's top three. Instead, the Big 12 will probably have to settle for enjoying a rather successful bowl season. A solid consolation, sure, but consolation all the same.

​

Oklahoma State will win the B12

 

[qwerty]

Oklahoma State will win the B12

Kansas ends the season 6-6 (3-6).

 

[quasistellar]

Kansas ends the season 6-6 (3-6).

After seeing them play a defense with a pulse, I believe that's the most likely outcome. Maybe 7-5. They play Texas on 2nd to last game of the regular season, and they might have given up again by then.

 

[KnappShack]

This will be normal going forward because the league will be really competitive and fun to watch.

Also normal will be no Big 12 representation from the Cows or Boomer in the top 25. Just like this week.

6 of the new Big 12 is ranked this week.

 

[Cloneon]

Not that's it's the best of indicators, but ...

	ACC	Big 12	Big Ten	Pac 12	SEC	Overall
ACC		2-2	2-2		2-3	6-7
Big 12	2-2		2-0	2-0	1-1	7-3
Big Ten	2-2	0-2		1-2	1-0	4-6
Pac 12		0-2	2-1		0-3	2-6
SEC	3-2	1-1	0-1	3-0		7-4

 

[CascadeClone]

Oklahoma State will win the B12

They were my pick pre-season, just based on continuity - Sanders back (again) and Gundy. Still, it's totally wide open.

 

[quasistellar]

They were my pick pre-season, just based on continuity - Sanders back (again) and Gundy. Still, it's totally wide open.

I figure Sanders will throw some picks at a bad moment eventually, but he's been solid so far and great with his legs too. Maybe this is their year to finally outright win the Big XII? Honestly I'm rooting for them (except against us of course). I like Gundy.

 

[HFCS]

I mean, before the season even started I thought Big XII would be lucky to have a team make the playoff. It's no secret it's a down year in this conference.

The bigger problem than some of the top teams being down is that there's no free wins at the bottom.

It really doesn't bother me, though, since IMO any team we send to a playoff will get blasted by Georgia or Alabama.

Is it really a down year though?

The massey composite has actually shown the Big 12 as narrowly stronger than even the SEC.

Lack of top 4 team doesn't mean down year. Honestly, I'm pretty skeptical that anybody but top of SEC and Ohio State can consistently be top 4, even Clemson. Only 5 programs have more than 2 CFP appearances and one of them is a Big 12 school that has dropped off this year in a big way.

Yet when computers crunch who is actually playing the toughest football conference, they come up with Big 12 being the toughest or second toughest top to bottom.

We're in the same place Big 12 basketball has been for a decade plus now. Strongest league top to bottom but not getting media credit for it. In basketball the media can't completely ignore the final fours and championships, much as they passionately try to do so. In football it's going to be next to impossible to get credit for how strong the league is without those same consistent national championships.

 

[Clonefan94]

Is it really a down year though?

The massey composite has actually shown the Big 12 as narrowly stronger than even the SEC.

Lack of top 4 team doesn't mean down year. Honestly, I'm pretty skeptical that anybody but top of SEC and Ohio State can consistently be top 4, even Clemson. Only 5 programs have more than 2 CFP appearances and one of them is a Big 12 school that has dropped off this year in a big way.

Yet when computers crunch who is actually playing the toughest football conference, they come up with Big 12 being the toughest or second toughest top to bottom.

We're in the same place Big 12 basketball has been for a decade plus now. Strongest league top to bottom but not getting media credit for it. In basketball the media can't completely ignore the final fours and championships, much as they passionately try to do so. In football it's going to be next to impossible to get credit for how strong the league is without those same consistent national championships.

I've never understood how a conference having one or two very good teams beating the crap out of the rest of the conference is somehow better and more of a challenge to the pundits than a good conference top to bottom and having to squeak out wins every week.

It's also baffling to me how certain teams have a name, if for some reason the other teams in the conference beat them, it means it's a down year with not possibility that some of these other teams might actually be good.

 

[cyclones500]

They were my pick pre-season, just based on continuity - Sanders back (again) and Gundy.

Mine, too. Only thing that gave me pause was having to play at BU and at OU ... but half of that equation is answered, and the second part looks like a non-factor, unless OU's light switch comes on by then. (Which is possible)

 

[HFCS]

I've never understood how a conference having one or two very good teams beating the crap out of the rest of the conference is somehow better and more of a challenge to the pundits than a good conference top to bottom and having to squeak out wins every week.

It's also baffling to me how certain teams have a name, if for some reason the other teams in the conference beat them, it means it's a down year with not possibility that some of these other teams might actually be good.

The year Texas won NC in 2005 the media narrative was that the Big 12 was weak and Texas dominated it.

The truth was Big 12 was best league by miles that season. 5-1 in bowls and 6-0 vs the spread and I don't know that any of the games were even close against the spread. ISU was the only loss and we lost by 3 as an unranked team playing against the #14 ranked team.