CFP Rankings and Narrow Path to B12 At-Large Bid

[StLouisClone]

Below is how I would rank the CFP Top 25 this week if I were on the committee. It will be interesting to see how many 3-loss SEC teams are put ahead of ASU and ISU.

1. Oregon 11-0
2. Ohio State 10-1
3. Texas 10-1
4. Penn State 10-1
5. Notre Dame 10-1
6. Miami 10-1
7. Georgia 9-2
8. Tennessee 9-2
9. SMU 10-1
10. Clemson 9-2
11. Indiana 10-1
12. Boise St 10-1
13. Arizona St. 9-2
14. Alabama 8-3
15. S. Carolina 8-3
16. Iowa St. 9-2
17. Mississippi 8-3
18. BYU 9-2
19. Texas A&M 8-3
20. Kansas St. 8-3
21. Tulane 9-2
22. Missouri 8-3
23. UNLV 9-2
24. Illinois 8-3
25. Colorado 8-3

Here's the narrow path to Iowa State making the CFP as an at-large team:

a. Notre Dame loses to USC on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
b. Miami loses to Syracuse on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
c. Tennessee loses to Vandy on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
d. Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
e. Loser of S. Carolina vs. Clemson game on Saturday drops below ISU.
f. Iowa State beats # 20 K-State on Saturday night. They move up 5 spots to # 11.
g. Wildcard. Clemson beats S. Carolina on Saturday but loses big to SMU in the ACC championship game. This could allow an idle ISU to move up from # 12/13 to # 11/12.

 

[EvilBetty]

Idle isu would drop. Isu is in the big 12

 

[HFCS]

I’m glad BSU can get 5th conf champ bid but they just don’t look any better than the 4 b12 teams right now for the bye. Neither does Miami really, SMU is improving.

 

[HFCS]

It’s an interesting year. Oregon/OSU pretty flawless but everybody else has massive warts.

PSU has no great wins, Texas not really either. Notre Dame has worst loss in the top 25. If you actually watch Miami’s games they’re really no better than the big 12 2 loss teams.

I just have a feeling other than Oregon/osu the sec teams should be higher than they are even w the losses. Skeptical of PSU/ind/miami and even ND.

 

[HFCS]

Below is how I would rank the CFP Top 25 this week if I were on the committee. It will be interesting to see how many 3-loss SEC teams are put ahead of ASU and ISU.

1. Oregon 11-0
2. Ohio State 10-1
3. Texas 10-1
4. Penn State 10-1
5. Notre Dame 10-1
6. Miami 10-1
7. Georgia 9-2
8. Tennessee 9-2
9. SMU 10-1
10. Clemson 9-2
11. Indiana 10-1
12. Boise St 10-1
13. Arizona St. 9-2
14. Alabama 8-3
15. S. Carolina 8-3
16. Iowa St. 9-2
17. Mississippi 8-3
18. BYU 9-2
19. Texas A&M 8-3
20. Kansas St. 8-3
21. Tulane 9-2
22. Missouri 8-3
23. UNLV 9-2
24. Illinois 8-3
25. Colorado 8-3

Here's the narrow path to Iowa State making the CFP as an at-large team:

a. Notre Dame loses to USC on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
b. Miami loses to Syracuse on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
c. Tennessee loses to Vandy on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
d. Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday. They drop below ISU.
e. Loser of S. Carolina vs. Clemson game on Saturday drops below ISU.
f. Iowa State beats # 20 K-State on Saturday night. They move up 5 spots to # 11.
g. Wildcard. Clemson beats S. Carolina on Saturday but loses big to SMU in the ACC championship game. This could allow an idle ISU to move up from # 12/13 to # 11/12.

If ND loses a second game the committee needs to take them to task both for worst loss in top 25 but also dodging a 13th data point, along with a season of basically no road games.

 

[ISUTex]

If ND loses a second game the committee needs to take them to task both for worst loss in top 25 but also dodging a 13th data point, along with a season of basically no road games.

A lot of playoff teams won't have a 13th data point. That whole concept is stupid anyway. The committee only brings that up if they need a certain team to get in. Cough cough......Alabama.......Cough.....Ohio State.

 

[ISUTex]

It's funny that they dropped teams earlier this year with bye weeks, but they will move SEC teams up after they play bad 1AA teams.

 

[Cy4Lifer]

It's funny that they dropped teams earlier this year with bye weeks, but they will move SEC teams up after they play bad 1AA teams.

The Committee will do everything in its power to get as many SEC teams in the playoff. They don’t even try to hide it!

 

[stewart092284]

Zero percent chance. You are 100% correct in how you broke it down and yet, 0 percent chance. Best guess for me


Oregon
Ohio State
Texas (unless they both lose to A&M and SEC title game, even then probably in)
Georgia
Boise State (Presuming MWC champs)
Notre Dame
Big 12 champion
Penn State
Miami (probably)
Clemson / SMU (probably)
Indiana (At 11-1, IDK if they'd leave them out)
And that would then leave Alabama, 2nd big 12 team and a few others

 

[Nor'MidWester]

I don't know how more people aren't talking about Notre Dame. They had the easiest schedule ever. Played two service academies, only 3 true road games, don't have to play in a conference championship game. Their only good win was A&M, then they lost to NIU the week after .Their independent status was cute but now it's just totally unfair.

And Boise State at #4 of course is stupid.

 

[12191987]

Zero percent chance. You are 100% correct in how you broke it down and yet, 0 percent chance. Best guess for me


Oregon
Ohio State
Texas (unless they both lose to A&M and SEC title game, even then probably in)
Georgia
Boise State (Presuming MWC champs)
Notre Dame
Big 12 champion
Penn State
Miami (probably)
Clemson / SMU (probably)
Indiana (At 11-1, IDK if they'd leave them out)
And that would then leave Alabama, 2nd big 12 team and a few others

Didn’t look at the methodology, but ESPN puts it at 18% if they beat KSU and miss the CCG.

They have a 90% chance to make the playoff if they win the Big 12, with a 49% chance to host the first round.

Funny, back when ISU was unbeaten the consensus here was there was 0% Boise State would jump a Big 12 winner in the CFP poll under any circumstances.

 

[stewart092284]

If we beat K-State we make the Conference Championship so I really don't understand that graphic.

 

[Raiders70]

The deserving team that the committee will try to screw over is SMU.If they don't win the ACC championship they will somehow in their convoluted logic put a 3 Loss SEC team in over SMU.

 

[12191987]

If we beat K-State we make the Conference Championship so I really don't understand that graphic.

Yeah. I was surprised this was an option, though I did read something yesterday that said ISU could still theoretically miss out under the right combination on wins/losses of uncommon opponents.

 

[HFCS]

I can’t believe people are talking about Notre Dame as the 5 seed. If we win 2 games and end up as 12 seed pleeeeeease give us ND over Ohio St.

 

[HFCS]

A lot of playoff teams won't have a 13th data point. That whole concept is stupid anyway. The committee only brings that up if they need a certain team to get in. Cough cough......Alabama.......Cough.....Ohio State.

If it wasn’t a corrupt cabal they’d have a clear consistent opinion on it.

CCG losers shouldn’t be punished at all vs possible at large teams that sit out. I’m not talking about big 12 ccg loser this year but maybe some other year.

ND starts season 0-1 per the committee when they screwed TCU.

 

[iowastatefan1929]

Would love a 12 seed at 5 seed Miami.

 

[HFCS]

I don't know how more people aren't talking about Notre Dame. They had the easiest schedule ever. Played two service academies, only 3 true road games, don't have to play in a conference championship game. Their only good win was A&M, then they lost to NIU the week after .Their independent status was cute but now it's just totally unfair.

And Boise State at #4 of course is stupid.

ND starts every year 0-1 before they play a game.

Committee was crystal clear about it when they dropped TCU from 3 to 6 after a 50 point win.

 

[cycloneG]

ND is punished slightly for not being in a conference. Even if they go 12-0, they'll never get a top 4 seed and first round bye.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

The deserving team that the committee will try to screw over is SMU.If they don't win the ACC championship they will somehow in their convoluted logic put a 3 Loss SEC team in over SMU.

I don’t think that will happen. But you can never bank on consistency/integrity from the committee.

However, I don’t think they will put in any 3-loss SEC team in because they’ve all got losses to sub-.500 opponents. The only exception I could see would be Bama, cause they’re Bama. But a lot of crazy would have to happen for that to occur.