A Post from the OU board tonight:
...Despite Orangebloods reporting OU's board will vote to (leave) the Big 12, I don't believe that is what OU wants to do. If they can settle down the instability, OU stays.
The instability appears to be about to be addressed. Suspect OU will sit down with UT and work out structural and revenue sharing changes. UT appears much more willing on both fronts than in the past.
The only other real outstanding issue is expansion. UT wants to replace A&M and remain a ten-school league. President Boren said that if the Big-12 survived he thought it needed to go back to being a 12-school league.
The real issue is who comes in. Texas only wants one school to avoid adding any schools in Texas (SMU, Houston, perhaps TCU) which can grow and compete against Texas on and off the field. See BYU. Suspect Boren wants to go back to 12 teams in part to dilute the inter-conference power of Texas. Smart idea.
BTW doesn't mean Big-12 doesn't lose another team. Still a chance Missouri decides to go the SEC. Big-12 can survive that if OU and UT negotiate the changes that need to be made.
OU the only school left in the conference that can do this. If and when it's done (likely between now and the OU-UT game in Dallas) Baylor will announce it believes its concerns have been addressed and no longer expects to have the need to litigate any issues with any current Big-12 school. That lets A&M off the hook to head east.
One other thing: It's entirely possible that the SEC making A&M entry contingent on liability waivers was done to assist OU in its efforts to save the Big-12. Just as the SEC helped Texas A&M save the conference 15 months ago (and possibly OU as well which may have been working with A&M behind the scenes) it's possible SEC is willing to help OU now as long as it is committed to stabilizing the conference long term. Would have been simpler and smarter, last week, for the SEC to tell A&M "get your exit from the Big-12 hassle free and then come see us." Didn't do that.
The liability waiver requirement of the SEC effectively created a log jam and added pressure to force Big-12 to deal with issues it's never been willing to deal with before. And as this has gone on, the options available to Texas have shrunk. Big Ten now says it's not adding teams as a result of current events. Texas has been telling everybody the SEC only wants A&M in order to get Texas into the league. Clearly that is not correct. Pac-12 appears firm in requiring Texas to make major changes in the Longhorn Network (share on-air programming with another school and share profits equally will all conference teams) which UT doesn't want to do. And last week an unnamed UT official said Texas did not want to go independent.
No Big Ten, no SEC, no Pac-12, no going independent. There's only one thing left. Suspect President Boren has been waiting for this. OU is now the key school in the Big-12. It has more power and influence than UT and both OU and UT know it. Good time to negotiate if you want to force the changes necessary to allow the Big-12 to survive long term.
RebecaCy's theories are being discussed openly elsewhere...