I do too but I have ZERO faith in Bundy doing anything other than getting lit up like a Christmas tree.
MLB: ***2024 Minnesota Twins***
- Thread starter Marcelason78
- Start date
Bundy hasn't been great lately, but maybe we'll get Arraez back and Correa playing short.
And I doubt we'll see Stanton back in right, but we can only hope.
I'm not sure you understand what high leverage is.
The 9th inning is not always the highest leverage outs.
A one run game in the 7th or 8th is higher leverage than a 3 run game in the ninth.
A one run game with the heart of the order up in the 8 is higher leverage a than one run game with 7-8-9 leading off the 9th (especially considering what the other team has already burned on the bench).
And since you asked about Hader...
Duran has 19 appearances. Hader 20 appearances.
Hader has 18 saves to Duran's 4. Yet that both have 1.8 win probability added (WPA)
All those saves, pitching exclusively in the 9th. Still doesn't have more WPA than Duran.
A lot of saves ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH LEVERAGE. It's a poor stat and a horrifically inefficient way to maximize value from your best reliever.
What's the leverage with the bases loaded, one out in the 4th, middle of the lineup, in a tie game?
Are you just being obtuse at this point? It's certainly elevated relative to the fact that it's the 4th inning, but there's also 15-18 outs left for your offense, so not exactly life or death yet...
Any comment on why Hader couldn't muster a better WPA even +14 in saves? I mean, the whole argument is right there in black and white now. You can choose not to believe it I guess...
He’s gotta be one of those old school guys. I’m in that camp often and grew up on that stuff so I can respect that. But have slowly come around to analytics and other changes to the game that are for the better. Took me a long time to realize that saves and wins are FAR from a useful stat in many cases.
Why not just tell us what your all telling WPA is for the example I gave?
You also act like eveyone should think WPA is the end all for evaluating relief pitcher usage. I don't.
And neither does the Brewers FO and managerial staff. You better inform those baseball guys know they don't know what they are doing.
I'll go look it up if you have a game example. But clearly you don't want to address the Hader or Rivera examples now that they add evidence on the other side or your argument.
The Twins could come out and score 9 in the bottom of the first tonight and win 15-2.
The highest leverage outs would have been the first inning for Twins pitchers in that hypothetical.
The whole point here, is context. And you're missing it every time, which is why you're so dead set on locking Duran to the 9th, even if games are lost, or blown, or won and turned into a laugher before then.
And yes, I do think, and I'm sure a lot of MLB teams think there is wasted value in how the Brewers are using Hader. But that's a luxury you can afford I guess, if the rest of your setup guys are nails as well.
Did you watch the game last night? It's the example I gave.
A lot of teams think the Brewers are wasting Hader? You talk about examples, show me one team that has said that.
I agree. Especially with Jeffers largely struggling with the bat and Sano isn’t an answer at DH.
Yes, the bases loaded, tie game, 1-out situation was the highest leverage situation a Twins pitcher faced last night. The double play was +18% for the Twins win expectancy.
Wait and see. He's been a little above average, but $10-12M a year above average, I don't know. On the other hand, the Twins catching depth is terrible. I wouldn't oppose either decision.
The reason you don't go to Duran 'that' early is probably so that you don't blow out your entire bullpen in the game. There is also decent chance a higher leverage situation occurs later (although it didn't in this case). You're also probably not expecting to go to the bullpen in that situation, so you'd be scrambling to get Duran warmed up quickly. If you see the Top of the order coming up in the 6th or 7th inning, you have more time to get Duran properly warmed up.
I guess I do know what high leverage is.
And I'm glad I don't think WPA is the end all because analytics would have told some you kids to bring in Duran.
When the Twins took the starter out last night after throwing a two hitter through five, it reminded me of a conversation I had with Bert Blyleven about how his incredible complete game mark would never happen today. His analytics were knowing who could not hit his curve. He said if he played for today's analytical geniuses, he would not have a ring, and would not be in the HOF. He said "most of it is crap, and it's ruining the game"
We already went over the point about context, and the fact you can't grasp it.
And you're the only one arguing to decisions made on absolutes, which in turn is making points for my argument for me over and over and over. Thanks!
You don't have to bring in Duran then, because there's 18 outs left! Your offense can still turn it into a laugher. And the Yankees only had 4 base runners the rest of the night.
Sometimes Duran should pitch the 9th. Sometimes he should pitch elsewhere.
Context and nuance man. Sorry it's beyond.
If I have a nightmare tonight about not remembering what hall my Stat final is in, I'm coming back here tomorrow and laying waste to this thread.
