Imo ISU will need to play their best (i.e. smart and patient) game Monday to have a chance (still not sold on AZ but they need a big win) and even better at Houston.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Imo ISU will need to play their best (i.e. smart and patient) game Monday to have a chance (still not sold on AZ but they need a big win) and even better at Houston.
He wanted no part of Houston yesterday. He would immediately retreat away from the basket and pass every time he touched the ball.
Yeah. The way we've played on the road, especially first 30 minutes, won't cut it tomorrow.
Brockington and Kalscheur in Brooklyn vs Xavier & Memphis in 2021
EDIT: @CY9008 answered question.
(I'll let my initial post stand anyway, just to see if anyone knows other examples)
I'm wondering the same thing. It might've occurred, but I certainly can't remember if/when.
In game thread I posted the question, not sure if anyone responded. My hunch is there were back-to-back 30+ by same player - Ivy is a good bet, and almost seems like Stevens did it.
I get that it’s just analytics but no way does Houston have a 87% chance to win the league with 9 Q1 games left and 12 overall league games.
They are good but really should be 6-2 in the league right now.
Maybe not, but they aren't 6-2. And the computers really like them. This is their remaining odds for each game for that site. @AZ/@Tech is the toughest but that is still 64% win prob for them. And they have a game up on us right now, so they can afford to lose a game at the moment.
Should be yes, problem is they’re not. That’s why their odds are so good right now.
If Houston should have 2 more losses, than so should we.
Good teams win/finish.
On that note - that WVA loss swings. They go and lose back to back turd games after beating us. Goodness we played so goddamn bad last Saturday.
I apologize for only posting these updates now. I was away from my computer all day.
WIN:
LOSE:
Probably need the win to stay "on pace" for a #1 seed and stay in the regular season race for the Big 12 given (1.) the SEC could very well land two #1 seeds and (2.) Houston is in such good shape after beating Kansas in Phog Allen. I think they proved well enough their computer metrics aren't a fluke, they've banked so many big wins already, and they've got home court for the one head-to-head game.
Not sure I agree Houston has banked a lot of good wins. Even with the win against KU they're resume is incredibly lacking for a team the metrics like so much.
Good? Yes.
Great? Maybe not outside of at Kansas.
In comparison... what's our best win?
Marquette at home? Baylor at home? Kansas at home? Tech on the road? Iowa on the road?
Good. But nothing shimmering like at Kansas.
I was more speaking about the Big 12 race than the seeding race, though, even if the two are linked. Houston is 8-0 and shows no signs of slowing down. Iowa St. is 7-1 and has a real hard one on Monday night, still has to go to Phog Allen, and still has to go down to Houston to play on their court.
Them tripping up against UCF or Kansas finishing them off when they had a 99%+ win expectation to even it out or give Iowa St. an advantage would have been nice when the conference schedule almost spots them one game with the single matchup being on their floor. But they didn't slip up.
So we gotta win some really hard games.
Games that'll win you the conference and land you a #1 seed if you win 'em.
I was primarily talking about getting a 1 seed, and that is the first thing you mention. Our win at Tech is very much on par with the win at KU as long as you don't get swallowed up by the myth about KU and "The Phog", and those other wins you mention are better than anything Houston has. Not only should we clearly be seeded ahead of Houston now, but they have ground to make up.
Winning the conference matters to some extent, but the deck is stacked against us with our only meeting at their place, so I'm not worried as much about that. If we can keep it within one loss of them I still think we will have a much better resume than Houston at the end of the day. I think we need to win one of those tough remaining road games to get the one seed, but I'm fine with that. If we want to be a one seed we should win one of those.
Agree
Regarding the league being down a bit, KSU and OSU being terrible hurts us on the bottom end, and KU is not KU. I hate the SEC, but must admit they have some excellent teams this year.
