My two "favorite" teams. Think I'm just going to stick with the 49ers this year.
*** 2023 Chicago Bears ***
- Thread starter Die4Cy
- Start date
The lesson of the Bears last decade is don't mortgage your franchise around a 1st round QB, no matter how good his college resume. Would be curious what success rate is for QB's taken in round 1- especially from blue blood programs.
Seems like the safer approach is draft QB's rounds 3-7 and do that every year. Spend top picks on OL, WR, DL and CB's.
Seems like the safer approach is draft QB's rounds 3-7 and do that every year. Spend top picks on OL, WR, DL and CB's.
Most of your top guys in the league are first rounders and have been for quite some time. Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, etc. Of the last several years the two non-first round standouts are Brees and Brady. Maybe Purdy will put himself there but only time will tell.
Simply put, almost all elite QBs are first round guys. With that said, there are LOT of highly drafted QBs that don't work out. Smith, Fields, Turbisky, Wilson, Leaf, Mac Jones (?), Russell, Harrington, Leinert, etc etc. The trick is to not miss with your pick.
Not sure Lawrence is in the "top guy" group.
I feel like teams have FOMO syndrome. They are afraid to miss out on the next Mahomes or Allen so they reach during the first round. There have been 21 first round picks from 2017-2022 and I would consider 7 to be successes, 7 busts and 7 serviceable QB's.
Over the same 6 year period there have only been 6 QB's taken in the 2nd round. With Jalen Hurts being the only success. Having so few QB's drafted in round 2 indicates to me that teams are reaching for QB's in round 1 and in most cases using top 15 picks.
I hope the Bears get it right!! A guy like Caleb Williams will be tempting, but I feel like without a solid OL and receivers even stud QB's like Allen, Hebert or Burrows would fail in Chicago.
Here is a list of 1st Round QB's:
2017
Trubisky (#2) - Bust
Mahomes (#10) - Success: GOAT
Watson (#12) - Success
** Plus 2nd round Kizer, Webb, Beathard
2018
Mayfield (#1) - Serviceable
Darnold (#3) - Bust
Allen (#7) - Success
Rosen (#10) - Bust
Jackson (#32) - Success
** No 2nd round picks
2019
Murray (#1) - Serviceable
Daniel Jones (#6) - Serviceable
Haskens (#15) - Bust
** Plus 2nd round Lock,
2020
Burrow (#2) - Success
Tagovailoa (#5) - Success
Herbert (#6) - Success
Love (#26) - Serviceable TBD
** Plus 2nd round Hurts
2021
Lawrence (#1) - Serviceable TBD
Wilson (#2) - Bust
Lance (#3) - Bust
Fields (#11) - Bust
Mac Jones (#15) - Serviceable TBD
** Plus 2nd round Trask
2022
Pickett (#20) - Serviceable TBD
** No 2nd round picks
Lots of busts for sure, but other than Hurts none of your current elite QBs came outside the first round. Some might put Prescott up there (I dont') Maybe Purdy will be there, but Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Burrow, Allen, Tua, and Rodgers (when healthy) are all first round guys.
Now, it's possible to find an NFL starter outside the first round. It's been done before and it will be done again. But as the NFL has evolved into a heavy pass first league it's not surprise there are 2 non-first round QBs to lead their team to a Super Bowl the last 20 years. One is Tom Brady (duh) and the other is Drew Brees, who was JUUSSSTTT outside the first round. I don't count Nick Foles as Wentz started the majority of the year before he got hurt.
Also let's be honest. The Bears scouting isn't good enough to find a diamond QB in the rough. If they were they wouldn't have started 50 bajillion QBs the last 30 years.
Why not put Bageant in at that point? Not only should Fields come out of the game there, he should have been pulled by the midway point in the 3rd quarter anyway. At that point leaving him in was doing nothing for Fields, or the organization.
Top to bottom the Bears are a complete mess (yet again).
Sadly it will take Virginia dying for this organization to have a chance at success (IE sold). We've seen it time and time again where competent ownership is the only thing that can turn a mess like this around. Kraft with the Patriots, Henry with the BoSox, Ricketts with the Cubs, the list goes on and on.
The McCaskey clan clearly doesn't know what they are doing and it's been obvious for quite some time.
I felt like the announcement they had bought the Arlington Park Racetrack to build a new stadium was an indication they would be selling in the medium term. Leverage that state and local government money to add a huge asset, guarantee the team would never be able to move, and then flip it. But hoo boy the org is going to be a tattered mess beyond recognition by the time they get there if this keeps trending.
That's not even the worst move they made.
IMO the worst move of the last several seasons was the trade for Khalil Mack. While it made the 2018 season possible, it was the type of move you do to put yourself OVER the top rather than doing before even being close to it. In doing so they gave up multiple first round picks and committed 20+ million per year to him. It was the type of boneheaded move (one among many) that's typified the franchise over the last 3+ decades.
Mack was a great player but there was NOTHING to suggest the roster (at the time) was good enough, or close enough to competing, to make that kind of move.
The McCaskeys do know what they are doing. Their number one priority is to make money, and as long as they are doing that it is a success. Winning isn’t important to them. The same was true in Cincy and Arizona until the old men stepped aside and let the younger generation take control. That happened in Detroit and look how much better that franchise is doing.
