2018 Stock Prediction

dmclone

Well-Known Member
Oct 20, 2006
21,248
5,534
113
50131
I actually sold all the way up. Starting at about 19000 DJIA all the way up to 25k DJIA. I also work for a major financial firm and I know or follow our top market analysts and economists. You don’t need to find the top or bottom...you can make out very well just by being fairly close.

So have you picked the spot where you're going to start putting back in?
 

Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
72,435
74,930
113
DSM
So have you picked the spot where you're going to start putting back in?

No I don’t necessarily pick a specific spot. I might miss twice in the bottom but I know that I’m still getting a good deal. We’re still in the roller coaster phase there’s a long way to go before I start making major moves unless something I really like starts getting killed.

Edit: and too be clear I didn’t make the moves based on where the DJIA was...that just happened to be what it was at when I made the moves. The DJIA is just a marker for me.
 

Dopey

Well-Known Member
Nov 2, 2009
3,162
1,969
113
I got my big bonus paycheck today, so I appreciate the extra $$ into my 401k.

Realized I’m conflicted. I’d like a nice big drop for my own selfish, long term reasons. But I’m nervous what it could do to my parents.
 

Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
72,435
74,930
113
DSM
I got my big bonus paycheck today, so I appreciate the extra $$ into my 401k.

Realized I’m conflicted. I’d like a nice big drop for my own selfish, long term reasons. But I’m nervous what it could do to my parents.

If your parents are anywhere near retirement they shouldn’t have much if any exposure to investments that could suffer large losses in a market downturn. Get them out and in to safety.
 

dmclone

Well-Known Member
Oct 20, 2006
21,248
5,534
113
50131
After working in the financial industry for the last 25 years, I love to hear how people invest.

I actually had a co worker this week tell me that he sold out company stuck when it was in the 70's and then when it hit single digits he put his whole 401k in company stock . It would have been a great story but for some reason he forgets that I was working with him back in 2007/2008 and know he's making it up .
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,388
11,178
113
After working in the financial industry for the last 25 years, I love to hear how people invest.

I actually had a co worker this week tell me that he sold out company stuck when it was in the 70's and then when it hit single digits he put his whole 401k in company stock . It would have been a great story but for some reason he forgets that I was working with him back in 2007/2008 and know he's making it up .

Even if he wasn't lying and it worked that's still a dumb move. Anyone in the business would know that. Way too much risk unless maybe he was 22.
 

CycloneDaddy

Well-Known Member
Sep 24, 2006
7,663
6,641
113
Johnston
Even if he wasn't lying and it worked that's still a dumb move. Anyone in the business would know that. Way too much risk unless maybe he was 22.
I know a handful of people that did this with WFC and PFG back in the day when both were in the single digits. Pure craziness but worked out for them.
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,388
11,178
113
Here's a hint. Any stock that has gone from $70 to $7 has a greatly increased risk of going bankrupt. Especially if they are leveraged and banks are by their very business model. Sure they may survive 3 out of 4 times but man I'm pretty risk tolerant and that is foolish. Especially if you work there because you could lose your job and all your retirement. Good job, Einsteins.
 

jmb

Well-Known Member
Apr 12, 2006
19,696
9,188
113
If your parents are anywhere near retirement they shouldn’t have much if any exposure to investments that could suffer large losses in a market downturn. Get them out and in to safety.
You are radically under qualified to say what you just said. Doctors don’t diagnose patients if they don’t know the patient. Running your financial planning insights on someone you don’t know is moronic. Furthermore; I am 100% certain the financial company your work for concurs.
 
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cyfanbr

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 13, 2013
2,100
2,238
113
IL
I entered the job market 2.5 years ago and at that point I just could not bring myself to invest any after tax dollars into the market... it just felt too expensive. Instead i’ve been maxing the 401K, and putting all my after tax retirement money into a cash position. Also, decided to start an HSA next calendar year and max it out, since the tax benefits are just too nice to pass on them.

I really hate trying to time the market, and can’t believe I’m kind of doing it myself... anyway like someone said, I don’t need to time it perfectly. I’m waiting for it to get low enough from the peak (~25-30% downturn), then I’ll split my cash position in 12+ month sums and invest it back in with my monthly retirement amount.

Hopefully it works well for me, but if it explodes on my face ’m still young enough to recover.
 

SCNCY

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Sep 11, 2009
9,859
7,363
113
37
La Fox, IL
I entered the job market 2.5 years ago and at that point I just could not bring myself to invest any after tax dollars into the market... it just felt too expensive. Instead i’ve been maxing the 401K, and putting all my after tax retirement money into a cash position. Also, decided to start an HSA next calendar year and max it out, since the tax benefits are just too nice to pass on them.

I really hate trying to time the market, and can’t believe I’m kind of doing it myself... anyway like someone said, I don’t need to time it perfectly. I’m waiting for it to get low enough from the peak (~25-30% downturn), then I’ll split my cash position in 12+ month sums and invest it back in with my monthly retirement amount.

Hopefully it works well for me, but if it explodes on my face ’m still young enough to recover.

25-30% downturn from the peak is a very large move from an overall market standpoint, like recession/depression type move. I'd look more in the 10-15% range. You can probably find 25-30% types moves in individual stocks though.
 
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Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
72,435
74,930
113
DSM
You are radically under qualified to say what you just said. Doctors don’t diagnose patients if they don’t know the patient. Running your financial planning insights on someone you don’t know is moronic. Furthermore; I am 100% certain the financial company your work for concurs.

That’s not even a hot take. As you get closer to retirement then you should be progressively less aggressive to the point where you are no longer aggressive. Unless of course you have money to burn which is not what the poster insinuated by their “worry” for their parents.

Do you live in bizarro world? What is your high level reco for his parents?
 

cyfanbr

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 13, 2013
2,100
2,238
113
IL
25-30% downturn from the peak is a very large move from an overall market standpoint, like recession/depression type move. I'd look more in the 10-15% range. You can probably find 25-30% types moves in individual stocks though.

I agree. However, that’s where I think we are headed in the near future. Another option would be to go in at that 10-15% range, but spread out my cash position over a larger time frame.
 

DeereClone

Well-Known Member
Nov 16, 2009
8,281
9,648
113
That’s not even a hot take. As you get closer to retirement then you should be progressively less aggressive to the point where you are no longer aggressive. Unless of course you have money to burn which is not what the poster insinuated by their “worry” for their parents.

Do you live in bizarro world? What is your high level reco for his parents?

Meh moving into conservative investments as you get closer to retirement is for the weak. Inflation will kill those that follow the other sheep in the “you have to be more conservative towards retirement crowd.”
 
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DeereClone

Well-Known Member
Nov 16, 2009
8,281
9,648
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I’ve been systematically investing about 10% of my take home each month into VWNFX and VUVLX and also adding a decently large lump sum each day it’s down over 1% on the day.

It’s worked well in the fact that it keeps me putting in a small amount systematically and also taking advantage of dips with the lump sum contributions.

This is non-retirement money. Vanguard prime money market is also a good place to park short term money with little/no risk.
 
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jmb

Well-Known Member
Apr 12, 2006
19,696
9,188
113
That’s not even a hot take. As you get closer to retirement then you should be progressively less aggressive to the point where you are no longer aggressive. Unless of course you have money to burn which is not what the poster insinuated by their “worry” for their parents.

Do you live in bizarro world? What is your high level reco for his parents?

What is their net Worth? Do they have defined bemfits? What are their monthly needs? Do they have estate matters? Before you pontificate know your client. Did they retire young? Will they have to hedge inflation with equity exposure? Interest rates are heading up in bond funds are they are they aware can lose value. I encourage you to run into the cco’s Office tomorrow tell them you are holding yourself out as one that knows and are giving advice online. Stupid.

You literally are violating almost every bit of online compliant behavior, and giving advice to people you don’t know. Moron.
 

Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
72,435
74,930
113
DSM
What is their net Worth? Do they have defined bemfits? What are their monthly needs? Do they have estate matters? Before you pontificate know your client. Did they retire young? Will they have to hedge inflation with equity exposure? Interest rates are heading up in bond funds are they are they aware can lose value. I encourage you to run into the cco’s Office tomorrow tell them you are holding yourself out as one that knows and are giving advice online. Stupid.

You literally are violating almost every bit of online compliant behavior, and giving advice to people you don’t know. Moron.

Wow. I’m sorry you cut your fingernails too short. Or that that gerbil crawled up your ass and died.
 

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