2016 Stock prediction

[ArgentCy]

I have found that I really suck at short-term trading and momentum trading. So I try to look for turning points and using charts seems to have helped me the most. Longer term trading / investing has been better to me especially after the HFT trading really taking hold. Trying to do fundamental analysis is difficult and only helps in a few situations but does make me feel better buying a plunging stock (with good fundamentals) or shorting a high flying stock (with negative book value or something).

 

[Go2Guy]

I have found that I really suck at short-term trading and momentum trading. So I try to look for turning points and using charts seems to have helped me the most. Longer term trading / investing has been better to me especially after the HFT trading really taking hold. Trying to do fundamental analysis is difficult and only helps in a few situations but does make me feel better buying a plunging stock (with good fundamentals) or shorting a high flying stock (with negative book value or something).

I heard an analyst talking how the big banks (C / JPM / GS) are trading < Book value, and around 80%.

 

[ArgentCy]

Just a heads up I think that I "would sell" SLW today (~17.28 now). Just for fun in this prediction thread as it was for the whole year. It's about the end of the first quarter and a 17.28-12.42 = $4.86 gain or 39%. Not bad.

 

[ArgentCy]

My special project is MNKD. Broke the 1 dollar barrier for the first time in a long time last month and now is up to 1.08, hoping it can get that base and push up to 2.00.

Good call on that one Gunner... Just can't quite pull the trigger on any of these small Biotech's.

 

[isu22andy]

Ive been riding the $TRIL biotech train , its a bumpy ride but ive managed to take home some profit..

 

[khardbored]

What's everyone's opinion on on oil? Do you think things have worked themselves out for oil and we will see a smoother future for oil prices?

Also, what is everyone's process for picking a stock? What is your process of determining whether you will buy a stock or not, how do you determine your sell point, buy point, etc.?

I'm not a complete rookie, but definitely still an amateur. I think the advice of try to find a group of stocks (maybe 20 or less) that you really watch. Once you've observed it for a couple years, you start to notice trends. Hopefully, when to buy, when to sell.

I also like a stock with good underlying fundamentals. They tend to go up and down with the greater market but always recover because they are inherently of value. I also rarely take a stock that has no dividend. It's often a sign of stability.

I'm not saying this is good or bad, so feel free to take it for what it's worth.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Good call on that one Gunner... Just can't quite pull the trigger on any of these small Biotech's.

Sold it at 2.04 after I bought a bunch at 0.81 average cost. It's headed back down now glad I stuck to my commitment of selling once it got to 2.00.

Next project is SYPG in the biotech sector. Investing in some Nasdaq listed energy or biotech in that under 3.00 range is pretty fun if any new investor is looking for something with not too much commitment that is fun to research and actually moves weekly and even daily.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

My CIM investment since 2012 has done well. Bought about $3,500 back then and dividends alone have given me $2k. Special dividend declared of .5/share. Gravy train, boys! I guess it makes up for the terrible losses on other gambles.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I'm pretty much on the sidelines in a holding pattern until the bear gets really hungry again. The major indexes just keep on ticking it's incredible really. Hasn't been much many to be made over the past couple of months.

 

[ArgentCy]

Really tough when the FED just flaps their mouth every other day flip flopping what the last person said. Then the computers run and all of the algo trading.

T has had a really nice breakout and I owned some calls, really cheap with minimal premiums. Sold some and exercised one before it goes ex-dividend next week. Still short a few shares of Netflix but not sure and have a fairly tight mental stop. That thing is so illiquid and moves easy.

 

[ArgentCy]

My CIM investment since 2012 has done well. Bought about $3,500 back then and dividends alone have given me $2k. Special dividend declared of .5/share. Gravy train, boys! I guess it makes up for the terrible losses on other gambles.

Stock has gone nowhere in past 3-4 years but good to at least capture that much through dividends. I think real estate has already peaked in many areas and not a place I want to be when interest rates start rising. Probably get one more nice rally in bonds / drop in rates but then I will look to short them with something like TBT.

 

[scottie33]

I got REGI at $6.80 and PEIX at $3.25 and both are doing well in the last month.

Been following SUNE closely lately as they are hovering below $2.00 with 52 week high of $32.00

I did not buy SUNE but appears that they are heading towards bankruptcy.

REGI continues to be real solid and am sitting at 37% gain since Early February.

 

[ArgentCy]

SUNE energy. Talk about a market mispricing, ouch. Wish I had shorted that thing last year. >$30 last july to .54 today. That killed Ackman? sorry some hedge fund was a major holder in SUNE and they got destroyed.

Also looking to get back short Gold via GLD put options. Waiting for today's month/quarter end and need to do a little more research.

 

[SCNCY]

I'm not a complete rookie, but definitely still an amateur. I think the advice of try to find a group of stocks (maybe 20 or less) that you really watch. Once you've observed it for a couple years, you start to notice trends. Hopefully, when to buy, when to sell.

I also like a stock with good underlying fundamentals. They tend to go up and down with the greater market but always recover because they are inherently of value. I also rarely take a stock that has no dividend. It's often a sign of stability.

I'm not saying this is good or bad, so feel free to take it for what it's worth.

When I take a look a stocks, I generally look at their overall business to see if they have room to grow. I generally read some articles about a company I am interested in and then look at their competitors. I probably need to get more involved on the data side of it.

I recently moved money away from some of the ETF's I am holding and invested it in to some good yielding stocks. It seems like a lot of articles I have read say that dividend reinvestment strategy is a slow, but good strategy for building wealth. I made this change in my IRA. Invested in T, GE, SNY, and PFE.

 

[scottie33]

SUNE energy. Talk about a market mispricing, ouch. Wish I had shorted that thing last year. >$30 last july to .54 today. That killed Ackman? sorry some hedge fund was a major holder in SUNE and they got destroyed.

Also looking to get back short Gold via GLD put options. Waiting for today's month/quarter end and need to do a little more research.

I read that Ackman is now on the board for Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) that has went from $250/share down to mid $20s over the course of the last few months...company has a load of debt with fear of default.

 

[SCNCY]

I read that Ackman is now on the board for Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) that has went from $250/share down to mid $20s over the course of the last few months...company has a load of debt with fear of default.

Isn't Valeant also the company that Hillary Clinton is using in one of her campaign ads regarding predatory pricing? I thought that was the reason why the stock tanked, not because of debt. But I didn't look too much in to it either.

*Don't want this to go to the cave, but feel it is important to note for the valuation of the stock!*

 

[Gunnerclone]

It took an entire country leaving the EU to open up the first non-flash (IMO) US Blue Chip stock buying window in about 5 years. Good stuff.

Also should help maintain the gold bull stampede, start buying the gold bears if you have 3-5 year horizon that you can sit through.

 

[ArgentCy]

Actually I think we'll see a lot of markets test their lows / highs. Gold really loves to make lows or highs in June for some reason. My puts are taking a pounding but better than being in any futures markets. SLW probably leading the pack of these predictions but I think it may be temporary and making a high now in June. Was hoping for this to be the low month.

 

[ArgentCy]

I'll update the chart at the end of the month being as its half way through the year.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

i just took a small gamble on british banks since they are down 12%. we'll see how it goes