Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

They say Oregon and Washington won't sign a GOR. If the new Pac-12 contract is only 5 years, why wouldn't they sign? 5 years is nothing.

It might be nothing, but does it solve anything?

Does a 5 year agreement help OR, WA, Stanford, etc bide their time before a ND decision? It would seem to lock them up.

ND's agreement with NBC ends fall 2025. If Pac12 schools sign a new 5 year GOR that pushes their Pac12 commitment 3 years beyond any potential ND move to the Big10.

Then you have the TV Networks. Are they going to want to make the financial investment in equipment and developing the Pac12 brand, when the schools can walk away in 5 years? There is speculation that new media partners like Apple or Amazon might be interested in a shorter length. But Apples MLS deal earlier this summer was 10 years.

 

[jbhtexas]

What a moron. He's too stupid and weak to call out the conference that's actually damaged him.

Dead man talkin'...

 

[exCyDing]

It might be nothing, but does it solve anything?

Does a 5 year agreement help OR, WA, Stanford, etc bide their time before a ND decision? It would seem to lock them up.

ND's agreement with NBC ends fall 2025. If Pac12 schools sign a new 5 year GOR that pushes their Pac12 commitment 3 years beyond any potential ND move to the Big10.

Then you have the TV Networks. Are they going to want to make the financial investment in equipment and developing the Pac12 brand, when the schools can walk away in 5 years? There is speculation that new media partners like Apple or Amazon might be interested in a shorter length. But Apples MLS deal earlier this summer was 10 years.

IMO, the short term media deal/GOR is just part of the denial stage where they’re throwing anything against the wall to try to keep the remaining 10 together. It makes no more sense than unequal revenue distributions. They’re trying to avoid the inevitable.

Notre Dame will likely get what they want I’m a renewal with NBC past 2025. They’re also contractually bound to the ACC though the end of the 20s. I really don’t see them moving until the ACC does. ND will have a home in whatever conference they choose, so they’re in no hurry.

There are three points of leverage on getting ND into a conference: they can’t make enough money as an independent, they don’t have a path to the CFP, and their other sports don’t have a conference home. The first and second seem unlikely, and the third seems most likely. The Big 10 knows this, and will wait patiently. If ND doesn’t join when the ACC GOR is up, it’s probably not happening and the Big 10 will move on.

Once all their options are laid out and they get other bids, I don’t see why the schools with other options but no reason to hope for a Big 10 invite would stick around.

 

[WhoISthis]

IMO, the short term media deal/GOR is just part of the denial stage where they’re throwing anything against the wall to try to keep the remaining 10 together. It makes no more sense than unequal revenue distributions. They’re trying to avoid the inevitable.

Notre Dame will likely get what they want I’m a renewal with NBC past 2025. They’re also contractually bound to the ACC though the end of the 20s. I really don’t see them moving until the ACC does. ND will have a home in whatever conference they choose, so they’re in no hurry.

There are three points of leverage on getting ND into a conference: they can’t make enough money as an independent, they don’t have a path to the CFP, and their other sports don’t have a conference home. The first and second seem unlikely, and the third seems most likely. The Big 10 knows this, and will wait patiently. If ND doesn’t join when the ACC GOR is up, it’s probably not happening and the Big 10 will move on.

Once all their options are laid out and they get other bids, I don’t see why the schools with other options but no reason to hope for a Big 10 invite would stick around.

There are many possible homes for ND non-football. The new Big East is rather suitable, although a FOX asset. Imo SEC would take them just to help keep ND out of BIG.

I agree that ND is likely waiting to see if waiting results in no ACC though.

The BIG destroying the ACC would help corral ND, while also making ESPN spend more on schools they already have under contract.

It sure seems like the BIG is sending a signal to FSU and Miami that they should be willing to start an ACC civil war to get to a P2. If those two have BiG tickets, which would give BIG equal status in Florida, ESPN can't tell FSU/Miami to wait until 2036 to get into the SEC. So ESPN would have to move ACC schools to SEC, or pay the ACC unequal revenue, with some schools getting near P2 money (FSU, Miami, Clemson, maybe UNC)

But if Miami/FSU can get that, ESPN might as well just liquidate the ACC and actually get the consolidation benefits.

For $800 million and being in the BIG, I think FSU and Miami would play off-campus until they got their way- maybe clemson too- at which point the ACC is a joke of a conference, ESPN now way overpaying for the basketball schools, and zero leverage by leftovers to use GOR to get better realignment value

 

[2speedy1]

What about the Big12 juco argument if the Pac12 adds Boise & UNLV. Both have worse rankings than ANY Big12 school.

I say that in jest, because outside the top 50 or so- there is not much difference in state universities. A person's academic experience is more about personal effort.

I think I know what you are getting at, but to add to my earlier point.

You have to know just how adverse schools like Cal and Stanford are to certain schools. SMU would have the same issues with them that Baylor and TCU had, and I just don't know if they can look past those in spite of themselves.

Boise Academics are really bad, If I remember right they are nearly dead last in most academic rankings for FBS schools, and I think a lot of people look at their sports outside of football as pretty poor and their facilities with the blue turf etc and think they are gimmicky.

UNLV is a tough one, they have terrible numbers for viewership, attendance etc, football is terrible, basketball is not as good as in the past. They don't bring a lot of value, but they bring Vegas. I think a lot of traveling fans would like to see them in a conference for that reason. Academics are not great. But in the long run I just do not think the value is there. But for the Pac they bring in a school in the area that does not have the cultural and political issues and brings Vegas to their footprint.

This is why if the Pac adds they will add SDSU, and probably Fresno, although Fresno does bring better athletics it does not really add a new market area etc. I do wonder if they might reach further into the MWC to schools we are not considering. But most in the MWC have the same issues.

San Jose' Same issues as Fresno.
Utah State same issues as Fresno only with Utah & lower academics
Col State same issues as Fresno only with Colrdo & lower academics
Nevada, similar to UNLV but no Vegas,
Air Force, no desire to move up
Wy and NM just are not at the level to move up, too many ahead, many of the issues of Boise etc.

 

[exCyDing]

There are many possible homes for ND non-football. The new Big East is rather suitable, although a FOX asset. Imo SEC would take them just to help keep ND out of BIG.

I agree that ND is likely waiting to see if waiting results in no ACC though.

The BIG destroying the ACC would help corral ND, while also making ESPN spend more on schools they already have under contract.

It sure seems like the BIG is sending a signal to FSU and Miami that they should be willing to start an ACC civil war to get to a P2. If those two have BiG tickets, which would give BIG equal status in Florida, ESPN can't tell FSU/Miami to wait until 2036 to get into the SEC. So ESPN would have to move ACC schools to SEC, or pay the ACC unequal revenue, with some schools getting near P2 money (FSU, Miami, Clemson, maybe UNC)

But if Miami/FSU can get that, ESPN might as well just liquidate the ACC and actually get the consolidation benefits.

For $800 million and being in the BIG, I think FSU and Miami would play off-campus until they got their way- maybe clemson too- at which point the ACC is a joke of a conference, ESPN now way overpaying for the basketball schools, and zero leverage by leftovers to use GOR to get better realignment value

ND would be a coup for whatever conference landed them, of course the SEC would take them. I’m just not convinced the ND administration would ever go for the SEC, historic bad blood with the Big 10 be damned.

And you’re right, the Big East is tailor-made for ND to move everything but football to should the ACC blow up. Losing the ACC wouldn’t force them into a conference, but it would remove some options. As long as it remains viable, they’re not moving. Forcing them to move creates the opportunity to snare them, but doesn’t ensure it.

My sticking point on the ACC falling apart in the near-term is that we haven’t seen anyone take drastic measures to escape their GOR yet. Legally, the whole point of the GOR was to keep a conference together, so arguing your way out successfully would be difficult and the outcome uncertain. Buying their way out would be ridiculously expensive and not economically viable. The GOR is for their rights, not the value of the ACC contract - they’d owe what they’d get from the P2 and not what they get from the ACC. Those left behind have no interest or motivation to settle for less than the full amount. Playing off campus for all sports would be complicated, harmful to the programs and very unpopular with the fanbase and community for a single season, much less a decade plus.

Let’s say ACC dissolution is the best way to make the ACC GOR go away. Are there 8 schools that the Big 10 and SEC want? I’m not sure. If there aren’t 8 they’d take between the two of them, what’s the incentive for anyone else to go along?

• ESPN/Fox could get 4-5 into the Big XII, but that’s a lateral move.
• Anyone who would be moved to the Big XII would likely get there on their own when the ACC eventually blows up, no need to force the issue.
• ESPN/Fox could keep the per-school distribution the same, but that’s only good for the current/next media deal and with no guarantee beyond that. The money might be the same, but the prestige would not.
• Voting no would spite their rivals who do have a P2 offer while not damaging any of the left-behind programs.

How does FOX/ESPN make the situation of those not going to the P2 better than the status quo? For that reason, I don’t see anyone voting to disband unless they’re going to the P2. I don’t see the P2 taking enough schools to disband. I don’t see a legal way for anyone to get out of the GOR. If Texas couldn’t get out of their GOR 3 or less years early, I don’t see a less valuable program (which is every other program) getting out 14 years early.

 

[WhoISthis]

ND would be a coup for whatever conference landed them, of course the SEC would take them. I’m just not convinced the ND administration would ever go for the SEC, historic bad blood with the Big 10 be damned.

And you’re right, the Big East is tailor-made for ND to move everything but football to should the ACC blow up. Losing the ACC wouldn’t force them into a conference, but it would remove some options. As long as it remains viable, they’re not moving. Forcing them to move creates the opportunity to snare them, but doesn’t ensure it.

My sticking point on the ACC falling apart in the near-term is that we haven’t seen anyone take drastic measures to escape their GOR yet. Legally, the whole point of the GOR was to keep a conference together, so arguing your way out successfully would be difficult and the outcome uncertain. Those left behind have no interest or motivation to settle for less than the full amount. Playing off campus for all sports would be complicated, harmful to the programs and very unpopular with the fanbase and community for a single season, much less a decade plus.

Let’s say ACC dissolution is the best way to make the ACC GOR go away. Are there 8 schools that the Big 10 and SEC want? I’m not sure. If there aren’t 8 they’d take between the two of them, what’s the incentive for anyone else to go along?

• ESPN/Fox could get 4-5 into the Big XII, but that’s a lateral move.
• Anyone who would be moved to the Big XII would likely get there on their own when the ACC eventually blows up, no need to force the issue.
• ESPN/Fox could keep the per-school distribution the same, but that’s only good for the current/next media deal and with no guarantee beyond that. The money might be the same, but the prestige would not.
• Voting no would spite their rivals who do have a P2 offer while not damaging any of the left-behind programs.

How does FOX/ESPN make the situation if those not going to the P2 better than their status quo? For that reason, I don’t see anyone voting to disband unless they’re going to the P2. I don’t see the P2 taking enough schools to disband. I don’t see a legal way for anyone to get out of the GOR. If Texas couldn’t get out of their GOR 3 or less years early, I don’t see a less valuable program (which is every other program) getting out 14 years early.

My comment was that ND could put non-football in SEC. That’s not materially different than ACC, and a win-win if it maintains independence.

I don’t think ESPN cares about more than 5-8 ACC schools, so if they kept ND out of Fox and also moved ACC to SEC, they’d be happy. It will be interesting to see if this allows ESPN being included in BIG deal

No GOR has been challenged because the risk/reward was completely different. If 4-6 schools have P2 homes, there’s simply too much utility that can be shared (settled) to have expiration occur. The GOR is not for perpetuity. All schools benefit on a settlement. Every year just leads to a more inefficient outcome for all.

-For Wake and BC, anything that means not as likely in the American come 2036 and parity to current deal is a very attractive settlement. My guess is they would even give up some revenue now, to avoid American.​

-For middle class ACC schools, a premium to the balance of the current deal, and post-ACC expiration security is suitable. Passing on that to be in a gutted ACC come 2036 is the most likely alternative, and not all will find a good landing spot as what can be offered now.​

-Combined with the Wake types, and these leftovers would likely start off with asking ESPN to build ACC into base of best of the rest- a 3rd super conference in numbers, and likely a little better than that 2016 era TV right deal they otherwise get holding on to GOR until expiration. Bait and switch is a possible avenue, using top of ACC to lure PAC and Big 12 schools to build a P2.5, but also not likely easily executed​

-For 1-3 schools, being included in the P2 as UCLA-type transaction cost is a likely settlement starting point in negations. The ability to get that decreases every year.​

There is a lot of smoke that the number is 6. If 6 ACC schools have P2 homes, the deal can get done. With transaction costs, this would mean potentially 8 schools, which also requires 1-2 to BIG imo. Which may need FSU and Miami taking their signal from Warren, and going madman tactic on the ACC/ESPN.

$800+ million and a BIG ticket is very motivating and can lead to blue sky solutions, some of which involve scenarios in which everyone loses for a year or two. FSU, Miami, Clemson don't need to win, they just need to have the leftovers lose- at $800 million they have more to spend on the battle of attrition. And that fact will force the leftovers to settle.

 

[2speedy1]

My comment was that ND could put non-football in SEC. That’s not materially different than ACC, and a win-win if it maintains independence.

I don’t think ESPN cares about more than 5-8 ACC schools, so if they kept ND out of Fox and also moved ACC to SEC, they’d be happy. It will be interesting to see if this allows ESPN being included in BIG deal

No GOR has been challenged because the risk/reward was completely different. If 4-6 schools have P2 homes, there’s simply too much utility that can be shared (settled) to have expiration occur

The GOR is not for perpetuity. All schools benefit on a settlement. Every year just leads to a more inefficient outcome for all.

We get it.

We are 360 pages in and I think every page has you telling us you think the ACC is going to come to some form of a "settlement" to end their GoR.

At some point you can move on from that and not keep going back to how much you believe they will settle. Maybe talk about one of the other 1000 theories, or subjects in this thread. You have now said the same thing in some way or another and continued to argue that the ACC is going to break the GoR, because Settlement, Because they are easy. They just happen, they arent risky, they wont want to fight, court is dumb...whatever.

WE GET IT.

 

[WhoISthis]

We get it.

We are 360 pages in and I think every page has you telling us you think the ACC is going to come to some form of a "settlement" to end their GoR.

At some point you can move on from that and not keep going back to how much you believe they will settle. Maybe talk about one of the other 1000 theories, or subjects in this thread. You have now said the same thing in some way or another and continued to argue that the ACC is going to break the GoR, because Settlement, Because they are easy. They just happen, they arent risky, they wont want to fight, court is dumb...whatever.

WE GET IT.

I doubt you do- no offense.

But as long as people post reasons why the ACC is good because of the GOR, I’ll post a response stating otherwise. You’ll be okay.

 

[WhoISthis]

Well, we aren’t trying to destabilize the PAC. We’re trying to add schools to Big 12. The PAC can live on forever with WSU and Oregon St.

 

[isucy86]

I think I know what you are getting at, but to add to my earlier point.

You have to know just how adverse schools like Cal and Stanford are to certain schools. SMU would have the same issues with them that Baylor and TCU had, and I just don't know if they can look past those in spite of themselves.

Boise Academics are really bad, If I remember right they are nearly dead last in most academic rankings for FBS schools, and I think a lot of people look at their sports outside of football as pretty poor and their facilities with the blue turf etc and think they are gimmicky.

UNLV is a tough one, they have terrible numbers for viewership, attendance etc, football is terrible, basketball is not as good as in the past. They don't bring a lot of value, but they bring Vegas. I think a lot of traveling fans would like to see them in a conference for that reason. Academics are not great. But in the long run I just do not think the value is there. But for the Pac they bring in a school in the area that does not have the cultural and political issues and brings Vegas to their footprint.

This is why if the Pac adds they will add SDSU, and probably Fresno, although Fresno does bring better athletics it does not really add a new market area etc. I do wonder if they might reach further into the MWC to schools we are not considering. But most in the MWC have the same issues.

San Jose' Same issues as Fresno.
Utah State same issues as Fresno only with Utah & lower academics
Col State same issues as Fresno only with Colrdo & lower academics
Nevada, similar to UNLV but no Vegas,
Air Force, no desire to move up
Wy and NM just are not at the level to move up, too many ahead, many of the issues of Boise etc.

I would be surprised if the Pac12 reaches much beyond the 2 they lost. Just add SDSU & SMU. But anything less than a 10 year GOR by all 10 existing Pac12 schools seems like delaying the inevitable.

I don't think the Pac12 vs Big12 bickering helps either conference. The reality is if the Big10 or SEC is going to offer any Big12 or Pac12 team a spot- their going to jump at it. Same goes for ACC, but who knows when they will be in play.

Somehow the Big10/SEC adding teams needs to be expedited and all this shuffling needs to be finalized by next summer. That way Big12 & Pac12 can sit at a table with TV consultants to determine what a 16, 18, 20 or 22 team Pac12/Big12 consolidation would look like. Let media revenue scenarios dictate how Presidents proceed.

 

[BCClone]

If Carol already knew about the B1G move, then why shoot down PAC expansion? Why would you care?

H

Easier decision to be explained.

 

[2speedy1]

I doubt you do- no offense.

But as long as people post reasons why the ACC is good because of the GOR, I’ll post a response stating otherwise. You’ll be okay.

As someone who has been through several contract disputes, mediation, arbitration, multiple legal battles, including custody, injury, and real estate battles. I think I get how legal battles go, and how settlements go as well.
As someone who has researched the above issues and legal battles, and also seen that no one has successfully challenged a GoR to date, I think I have a little insight.

I am not saying it can't or won't happen. But I don't think you have a clue as to what it takes, nor do you have a clue as to how long it takes to settle something like this. I don't think it is even remotely close to as easy as you believe it to be.

Their GoR could be broken, What everyone is saying is it is going to be extremely difficult, and will take a lot of things to happen. They may get there, it may end up being a settlement in the end, but to get to that point it is not going to be as simple as tomorrow everyone sits down and decides to go their separate ways and everyone is happy. It just is not.

A settlement to leave a conference like UCF etc had to do to leave the AAC for exit fees etc is different than a settlement for a GoR, and it still took months, to work out. And they knew it was going to be manageable sum when the final price was settled. A settlement on that GoR means Dollar amounts that could bankrupt an AD if things go the wrong way.

But you can keep repeating your same point, the more you say it does not make it true, it won't make you right.

 

[BCClone]

IMO, the short term media deal/GOR is just part of the denial stage where they’re throwing anything against the wall to try to keep the remaining 10 together. It makes no more sense than unequal revenue distributions. They’re trying to avoid the inevitable.

Notre Dame will likely get what they want I’m a renewal with NBC past 2025. They’re also contractually bound to the ACC though the end of the 20s. I really don’t see them moving until the ACC does. ND will have a home in whatever conference they choose, so they’re in no hurry.

There are three points of leverage on getting ND into a conference: they can’t make enough money as an independent, they don’t have a path to the CFP, and their other sports don’t have a conference home. The first and second seem unlikely, and the third seems most likely. The Big 10 knows this, and will wait patiently. If ND doesn’t join when the ACC GOR is up, it’s probably not happening and the Big 10 will move on.

Once all their options are laid out and they get other bids, I don’t see why the schools with other options but no reason to hope for a Big 10 invite would stick around.

Remember, the big east is there for the other sports if needed

 

[2speedy1]

I would be surprised if the Pac12 reaches much beyond the 2 they lost. Just add SDSU & SMU. But anything less than a 10 year GOR by all 10 existing Pac12 schools seems like delaying the inevitable.

I don't think the Pac12 vs Big12 bickering helps either conference. The reality is if the Big10 or SEC is going to offer any Big12 or Pac12 team a spot- their going to jump at it. Same goes for ACC, but who knows when they will be in play.

Somehow the Big10/SEC adding teams needs to be expedited and all this shuffling needs to be finalized by next summer. That way Big12 & Pac12 can sit at a table with TV consultants to determine what a 16, 18, 20 or 22 team Pac12/Big12 consolidation would look like. Let media revenue scenarios dictate how Presidents proceed.

Problem with a 10 year GoR is you lock yourself into a deal possible to what the ACC is stuck with. As others continue to get more and more money you are locked into something for a decade plus. That is why none want a GoR that long. Besides ORWA etc that also are looking for an exit door.

I think SMU is the best second pick for them too. But I still wonder if the Pac can get beyond their issues with religious schools to take them. If they can, SMU would definitely make the most sense.

 

[BCClone]

Well, we aren’t trying to destabilize the PAC. We’re trying to add schools to Big 12. The PAC can live on forever with WSU and Oregon St.

Kinda shows who is really openly tampering with whom conference wise.

 

[BCClone]

Problem with a 10 year GoR is you lock yourself into a deal possible to what the ACC is stuck with. As others continue to get more and more money you are locked into something for a decade plus. That is why none want a GoR that long. Besides ORWA etc that also are looking for an exit door.

I think SMU is the best second pick for them too. But I still wonder if the Pac can get beyond their issues with religious schools to take them. If they can, SMU would definitely make the most sense.

The two schools that have been mentioned the most for the PAC is Houston and TCU. TCU had pushed away from being considered a Christian school as much as they were. Not sure about SMU. I bring up TCU strictly due to the religion factor. Houston due to it is apparent, they want into Texas.

 

[2speedy1]

The two schools that have been mentioned the most for the PAC is Houston and TCU. TCU had pushed away from being considered a Christian school as much as they were. Not sure about SMU. I bring up TCU strictly due to the religion factor. Houston due to it is apparent, they want into Texas.

Yeah I have heard that too, I just have a hard time believing any B12 school is going to leave for the P12.

A year ago maybe, but not anymore.

 

[exCyDing]

Yeah I have heard that too, I just have a hard time believing any B12 school is going to leave for the P12.

A year ago maybe, but not anymore.

At this point, any talk of the PAC raiding the Big XII is entirely delusional. More instability for less money? I can’t understand why the schools aren’t clamoring to sign up.

There’s no way the Big XII would quickly walk away from merger talks with the PAC unless everything coming from potential media partners made it abundantly clear the numbers weren’t even close to working. Since the Big XII was the one to walk away, it would seems the numbers worked better for them without the PAC (as a whole) than with. That tracks with basically every analysis of the conferences in both pre- and post-OUT/USCLA configurations.

Any talk about the PAC raiding the Big XII is entirely predicated on a massively better deal than ESPN just offered coming out of nowhere. They’d need somewhere in the ballpark of double what ESPN offered, and it’s hard to believe they’d lowball them that much. Anything spinning Big XII to PAC defections is just clickbait for PAC fanbases still working through acceptance of where they stand.

 

[2speedy1]

At this point, any talk of the PAC raiding the Big XII is entirely delusional. More instability for less money? I can’t understand why the schools aren’t clamoring to sign up.

There’s no way the Big XII would quickly walk away from merger talks with the PAC unless everything coming from potential media partners made it abundantly clear the numbers weren’t even close to working. Since the Big XII was the one to walk away, it would seems the numbers worked better for them without the PAC (as a whole) than with. That tracks with basically every analysis of the conferences in both pre- and post-OUT/USCLA configurations.

Any talk about the PAC raiding the Big XII is entirely predicated on a massively better deal than ESPN just offered coming out of nowhere. They’d need somewhere in the ballpark of double what ESPN offered, and it’s hard to believe they’d lowball them that much. Anything spinning Big XII to PAC defections is just clickbait for PAC fanbases still working through acceptance of where they stand.

I also feel that if the Pac gets a better deal suddenly than what has been rumored, then that also means we look to get a better deal than what is expected too.

I still have a feeling that the B12 is currently valued at $10-15M per more than the PAC. So whatever they get offered or make for a deal in their current form, I consider us that much more. Regardless.

Meaning if they get offered 30 our value is at least 40-45 moving forward, if they get offered 40, we can expect an offer of 50-55 moving forward, at minimum.

I do not think adding the 4 corners gives us a huge jump, in what our current value may be, other than it removes content somewhere else, and it adds more stability. In turn it may add an additional 5-10M per school max because of this, otherwise it is just adding mostly equal value, divided the additional ways.

That is just my feeling as of now anyway.