Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[BryceC]

Wilner is tweeting this now and it makes sense. Is killing the Pac 10 by adding the AZ schools, Utah and CO worth taking a smaller payout? Because those schools certainly don't add any money to the pot.

In this case, killing the Pac 10 in exchange for some stability probably is worth a smaller payout is my guess.

It makes sense because the payout might not be that much smaller if the PAC is dead.

ACC is locked in forever. The new Big/PAC would be the only major rights coming up for a while. If they could get a bidding war going (including the streamers) the numbers could get ridiculous. Not big 10 ridiculous but ridiculous enough.

 

[JUKEBOX]

My guess timeline on how things shake out and when it will happen.

Yesterday - ~2024: Pac 12 blows up and gets poached by B1G and Big 12
Tomorrow - ~2036: ACC blows up with SEC/B1G taking top dogs and Big 12 takes viable leftovers

After that's done I think we enter into a conference realignment phase where B1G and SEC start trimming the fat (and Big 12 could potentially expand if/when those teams would get cut off).

I don't think they will directly kick anyone out, but will just make it difficult or impossible for those teams to compete to basically force them out.

 

[2speedy1]

If this rumor is true, Washington and Oregon to the Big 10 is just a matter of time, which means Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado all see the writing on the wall - and Stanford and Cal either are also going to the Big 10 or nobody wants to deal with their insanity anymore.

My guess is the Big 12 would take these first. Then if the B1G doesnt take Oregon and Wash they would welcome them in too.

I also think its either a waiting game on the rest of the PAC, as to see if they are worth adding. You add these 4. Solidify the moves then wait and see what the other 2 do, and see what kind of media deals happen.

You also wait to see what the SEC and ACC do. Me thinks the ACC is mostly stuck. But there could be a back door deal somehow.

 

[2speedy1]

Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Oregon, and maybe Oklahoma St

 

[2speedy1]

It makes sense because the payout might not be that much smaller if the PAC is dead.

ACC is locked in forever. The new Big/PAC would be the only major rights coming up for a while. If they could get a bidding war going (including the streamers) the numbers could get ridiculous. Not big 10 ridiculous but ridiculous enough.

Yeah, I cant say any of those add significantly to the payout. But I dont think they significantly subtract from it either. My guess is most of them are valued similarly to the rest and would neither add nor subtract from the average payout. Meaning If the contract was predicted to be 50M per school before adding those 4, it is probably still 50M with them just 50M going to 4 more. And I would think they would get a reduced share for a probation period as is the norm.

But like you said, they will greatly increase the stability, of the conference, while also eliminating a competitor for media dollars. So when it comes contract time and those networks are looking for content there is one less option out there.

 

[7Got6]

The more I think about this (and drink whiskey) the better I think ISU fares than Iowa realistically. ISU probably has a better chance in a 3rd tier conference making a future iteration of the CFP.

Once the dust settles, they are more than likely (95%) going to be a part of that 3rd conference. There’s probably a better chance that they come out on top for a conference championship over say Baylor or Colorado or Arizona State on an annual basis then Iowa finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B10 with OSU, Michigan, USC, Penn St, and Wisconsin .

The only real pause for concern is whether the Big Ten and SEC goes for the jugular And essentially creates their own championship. Dear God I hope that doesn’t happen and I think 99% of fans would agree with that. Even the ones that view themselves at the top of the pecking order. All of this makes me morose because it’s destroying a lot of the things that I loved about college football. The bowls, arbitrary banter over conference superiority, rivalries… Unfortunately they’re going to have to learn the hard way and realize that they in the long-term are going to have a depleteing dollar over a loss of interest. I just hope they can find their way back somehow.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

If ESPN wants Clemson and Florida State in the SEC, the grant of rights disappears and the league is free to be poached

You know there are big time lawyers that can't wait to get their crack at the GOR agreements.

 

[scyclonekid]

I’ll bite, go get zona schools, buffs, utes now like this weekend. Talk to huskies n ducks can’t hurt, huskies n ducks are waiting on big ten, but tell them hey we ready. Gotta be very aggressive right now like yesterday aggressive in order to stay at least 3rd best. It’s paramount.

 

[Scarlet Twister]

I actually think of Nebraska as permanently lower ceiling than Iowa and Wisconsin now. Even Minnesota could have more upside some day. They are a remote outpost with ridiculous expectations.

Adding UCLA/USC/Wash/Oregon is not going to lift up Nebraska relative to the rest of the conference either.

Nebraska won 9 or more games there first few years in the B1G. Riley even had a season of 9 wins. They've only truly been bad under Frost. They even beat Michigan St. during their playoff season. lol

 

[HouClone]

If the Big 10 don't take anymore Pac 12 schools, I think the Pac 12 circles the wagon to regroup. Maybe they go for the jugular and try to poach 6 Big 12 teams and kill off the rival league. Say Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, BYU, Ok State. Yeah, academic snobbery and religious schools concerns would have to be pushed aside. Put ISU in if you like instead. Ok State and Kansas have been getting big headed now thinking they are the new OU and UT and have wandering eyes.

I don't see this playing out but the Pac 12 should do this to survive. I hope not especially if ISU is left out. But I would rather do the poaching and keep our schools and culture intact. Let's hope Yormark is the shark Chris says he is in his podcast.

 

[JohnnyFive]

Who would the SEC add if the ACC isn't an option? I think they will stand at 16 teams until the ACC's GOR expires, but if they were to expand immediately to 20 teams, ISU would certainly be a top contender.

There is a less than zero chance ISU would get to the SEC. It is plausible that they could get invited to a 22-24 Big 10, but I doubt that happens. More realistically ISU remains in the Big 12, which is still much better in basketball and football than the ACC even without the remaining Pac-12 teams

 

[WhoISthis]

I don't think any decision has been made in realignment, pretty much ever but at least in the modern era, without money as the primary factor. Especially by the B1G. So if Cal and Stanford cannot pay their way (which they cannot), they aren't B1G worthy. And it sounds as though Washington is borderline as best on the money front.

There has never been a Stanford as an option. Or even a Berkeley.

Obviously if ND wants both, both are in too.

The BIG will be adding at least 3 more P12 schools, 4 if ND says no.

 

[2speedy1]

There has never been a Stanford as an option. Or even a Berkeley.

Obviously if ND wants both, both are in too.

The BIG will be adding at least 3 more P12 schools, 4 if ND says no.

Someone has to tell me what Stanford and Cal bring as far as value when we are talking media deals and conference payouts.

If Oregon and Washington dont move the needle to be automatic adds, how are Stan and Cal considered valuable? When talking about media value.

I realize they are academic juggernauts, but when we are talking media deals and conference realignment what do they really matter, even to a conference like the B1G that values AAU? When they could have other AAU schools that move the media needle more? And rivalries don't appear to matter anymore.

I am not being argumentative or sarcastic either I am asking a serious question. I really want to know. I am sure there is more I am missing or not seeing with those 2 schools. Hopefully someone has some info or can give some insight. Or at least their opinion on why those 2 are desirable.

 

[BryceC]

If ESPN wants Clemson and Florida State in the SEC, the grant of rights disappears and the league is free to be poached

You know there are big time lawyers that can't wait to get their crack at the GOR agreements.

UT and OU’s lawyers have been looking at their GoR since the announcement last year. We still aren’t sure they’ll be able to get out of the conference early. Those things are pretty locked tight.

 

[RustShack]

If ESPN wants Clemson and Florida State in the SEC, the grant of rights disappears and the league is free to be poached

You know there are big time lawyers that can't wait to get their crack at the GOR agreements.

Lol Texas and Oklahoma haven’t even been able to get out a year or two early. But yeah sure

 

[12191987]

Honestly, if I'm the B1G and I can lock up Notre Dame, I might take Stanford over Oregon. I realize Stanford is a virtual non-entity athletically, but in every other way (including a relationship with ND) they bring so much to the table. That massive media market, Silicon Valley, the prestige of an Ivy-quality university, excellent non-revenue sports...seems too much to ignore.

Ouch. As you note, Stanford is excellent in non-revenue sports, so your point is clear, but damn is it jarring to read they’re a virtual non-entity athletically.

They’ve won 25 out of 27 Director’s Cups and finished second the two times they didn’t win!

 

[cyIclSoneU]

There has never been a Stanford as an option. Or even a Berkeley.

Obviously if ND wants both, both are in too.

The BIG will be adding at least 3 more P12 schools, 4 if ND says no.

No one makes them enough money other than maybe Oregon and Washington. I don't really think that people are wrapping their heads around the insane jump in TV money coming to the B1G. It is extremely hard for a potential addition to be worth that much to the league. And if they aren't worth that much, then they shrink everyone's slice of the pie (and they get rejected).

Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona, Colorado... these schools come nowhere close to paying for themselves in the B1G. By a very long way. (Same is true for Kansas even moreso after the USC/UCLA moves.)

I think the B1G stops at 18 if Notre Dame says no, and Oregon and Washington join. If ND says yes, maybe it depends on if that yes is contingent on Stanford coming, which could result in a 20 school league. But I could also see them take ND and Oregon and still stop at 18 if ND says yes.

 

[CascadeClone]

Ouch. As you note, Stanford is excellent in non-revenue sports, so your point is clear, but damn is it jarring to read they’re a virtual non-entity athletically.

They’ve won 25 out of 27 Director’s Cups and finished second the two times they didn’t win!

And they have had a handful of pretty good FB teams too. Just depends on having the right coach, same as anywhere.

 

[CascadeClone]

I’ll bite, go get zona schools, buffs, utes now like this weekend. Talk to huskies n ducks can’t hurt, huskies n ducks are waiting on big ten, but tell them hey we ready. Gotta be very aggressive right now like yesterday aggressive in order to stay at least 3rd best. It’s paramount.

Agree.

Imho the Big12 isnt adding to add net positive value to the tv contract, like B1G is saying. They need to add so they have numbers for stability, and to have enough critical mass to have a leading voice during the next paradigm shift, ie when the superleague happens. If the Big12 is a large coherent group of the 2nd tier, then they will have the chance to shape the 2nd tier system.

Prob the superleague will have a big playoff, nfl lite. The tier 2 will be the " bowl system" and look a lot more like CFB from the pre-BCS era.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Imho the Big12 isnt adding to add net positive value to the tv contract, like B1G is saying. They need to add so they have numbers for stability, and to have enough critical mass to have a leading voice during the next paradigm shift, ie when the superleague happens. If the Big12 is a large coherent group of the 2nd tier, then they will have the chance to shape the 2nd tier system.

Agreed, it's important for the Big 12 to kill the Pac-12 with its moves here and also to be in a position where the ACC leftovers, post B1G and SEC raid of that league, have no choice but to join the Big 12 (if we want them).

College sports is changing so fast; the Big 12 needs to seize its chance to lock in its status among the top 3 leagues when this long round ends. Just too bad the first 2 will be so far ahead.