Big XII to add schools within days?

AuH2O

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So no growth in ratings due to different brand, time zones, markets? The Pac12-BIG matchups don’t draw better than Pac 12 only?

Imo the pac 12 only ratings show there’s plenty of room for swapping.

How did you get only $5 million/year more in carriage fees? Getting in-market fees at $1.3/month per household in those states would be big imo, likely adding new households too
I’m saying in all those states if you go from zero households to half the households now getting BTN, that would boost every school in a 22 team league would get about an additional $5mil per year from those carriage fees. I doubt in CA it’s now zero and I doubt it would get to 50%, so that’s probably high.
And I’m saying the odds are if you add a bunch of teams from the PAC that would be at the bottom of the BIG in ratings is more than likely going to drop the average viewership in the conference.
 

KnappShack

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Damn right

"College football’s economic engine is driven by the traditional powers —- Alabama and Ohio State, USC and Notre Dame, Texas and Oklahoma —- but teams such as Iowa State energize a season."


 

WhoISthis

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I’m saying in all those states if you go from zero households to half the households now getting BTN, that would boost every school in a 22 team league would get about an additional $5mil per year from those carriage fees. I doubt in CA it’s now zero and I doubt it would get to 50%, so that’s probably high.
And I’m saying the odds are if you add a bunch of teams from the PAC that would be at the bottom of the BIG in ratings is more than likely going to drop the average viewership in the conference.
That’s way too low, and it would just need to cover their add. It’s the incremental gain that needs to pay the 8 or 9 close to what the BIG will get (I think there could be provisions that allow for unequal too if needed). Think, if adding Rutgers worked purely based on getting inmarket, the 4-5 that need to be subsidized by carriage fees isn’t prohibitive.

In 2018 BIG Network converted 50+ million subscribers to $340+ million. Even just the conversion of currrent subscribers to in-market adds roughly $12 million per million conversion. Add in millions of new subscribers, at in market rate, and it’s a windfall,

It closes the gap on the 8 or 9 self-funding their addition. Say the new Pac 12 deal is $30 million/team. That means it’s higher for the top 8 or 9. Conceivably closer to $35 million. If they can subsidize the west markets like they did with Rutgers, plus see increasing value from getting more access to larger audiences (we need to compare Pac12-BIG ratings to Pac12 only), it gets interesting Imo

6 is definitely an easier add in terms of revenue, but Imo if the addition could achieve close to parity, it would be approved.

It’s in essence bundling at the content provider level. Getting consumers to pay for the Pac12 to get the BIG (and the opposite, but less so).
 
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AuH2O

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They were in our conference and I never remember that. I thought they went straight to Algona.
Same here. I remember calling them Sentral Burt, but thought it could be some made up memory.
 

AuH2O

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That’s way too low, and it would just need to cover their add. Think, if adding Rutgers worked purely based on getting inmarket, the 4-5 that need to be subsidized by carriage fees isn’t prohibitive.

In 2018 BIG Network converted 50+ million subscribers to $340+ million. Even just the conversion of currrent subscribers to in-market adds roughly $12 million per million conversion. Add in millions of new subscribers, at in market rate, and it’s a windfall,

It closes the gap on the 8 or 9 self-funding their addition. Say the new Pac 12 deal is $30 million/team. That means it’s higher for the top 8 or 9. Conceivably closer to $35 million. If they can subsidize the west markets like they did with Rutgers, plus see increasing value from getting more access to larger audiences (we need to compare Pac12-BIG ratings to Pac12 only), it gets interesting Imo

6 is definitely an easier add in terms of revenue, but Imo if the addition could achieve close to parity, it would be approved.
I think 6 could work and pay for itself, I just think you could achieve much of the same benefits by going USC, UW, UO and UCLA without adding additional mouths to feed.
 

WhoISthis

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I think 6 could work and pay for itself, I just think you could achieve much of the same benefits by going USC, UW, UO and UCLA without adding additional mouths to feed.
Maybe, but I wonder if there’s less resistance if you can add all California schools. Not optimal but feasible thing.

And the scheduling/distance issues are less with enough to basically have a Pac12 side. If just 4, a lot of BIG programs are traveling a lot. When you’re the BIG and making as much as anyone, you can spend a little to avoid those issues Imo. Whereas the Big 12, it’s nearly all about “how much revenue”?

I wonder if it approached $60-$70million/team in incremental, the Pac12 8-9 would be okay getting that, as otherwise with equal revenue sharing the BIG side would lose money if forecasts are correct. I think most would, as it is way more than they’d get as a Pac12, but USC may say, **** that, I’m worth Wisconsin money etc
 
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NWICY

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That would, imo, play right in to the hands of an antitrust. Furthermore, if that happens I can see state legislatures getting very involved in this whole thing.

I think the legislatures have given up, I used to think OU/OSU were joined at the hip legislatively but I haven't seen many articles about it. It would be funny if Texa$ has to start to share a bunch of that state supplied oil money that they and aTm split, with the rest of the Texas university system.
 

jdoggivjc

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Are they any worse off than where they are now? I think they are better off. Even if say 6 of the 8 bail out, its no worse, its like adding a few big12 teams to the aac. Little to lose, much to gain. Good risk to take.

If the Big 12 ceases to exist as a result of a mass exodus (dissolution of the conference by the remaining members to skip out on paying exit fees) and are forced out of AAC as a result of deciding to join the Big 12, yes, they would be.
 

WhoISthis

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If the Big 12 ceases to exist as a result of a mass exodus (dissolution of the conference by the remaining members to skip out on paying exit fees) and are forced out of AAC as a result of deciding to join the Big 12, yes, they would be.
They would be welcomed back before the ink dried on the Big 12 dissolution.
It’s going to be very tough for dissolution now with 4 more added to the conference, which may be why we added 4 (lol at OuT )
 

Cloneon

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I think the legislatures have given up, I used to think OU/OSU were joined at the hip legislatively but I haven't seen many articles about it. It would be funny if Texa$ has to start to share a bunch of that state supplied oil money that they and aTm split, with the rest of the Texas university system.
Sadly, monopolistic law seems to have vanished. I wonder why.
 

AuH2O

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Maybe, but I wonder if there’s less resistance if you can add all California schools. Not optimal but feasible thing.

And the scheduling/distance issues are less with enough to basically have a Pac12 side. If just 4, a lot of BIG programs are traveling a lot. When you’re the BIG and making as much as anyone, you can spend a little to avoid those issues Imo. Whereas the Big 12, it’s nearly all about “how much revenue”?

I wonder if it approached $60-$70million/team in incremental, the Pac12 8-9 would be okay getting that, as otherwise with equal revenue sharing the BIG side would lose money if forecasts are correct. I think most would, as it is way more than they’d get as a Pac12, but USC may say, **** that, I’m worth Wisconsin money etc

I think that's the problem with trying to bring over a large group of schools. USC for sure and Oregon possibly could make the claim they are in that second tier of value with Michigan, PSU and Wisconsin. The rest of the PAC schools really have no argument to make. UCLA probably thinks they are because of their name, but they simply aren't a football draw. UW is regionally popular but not a draw nationally, same goes for Utah. Frankly the other PAC schools are just terrible from a media perspective. Maybe there are scenarios where there some synergy, but beyond those schools you'd be adding redundant markets with Maryland or Illinois TV interest. Again, hard to predict, but it seems like the PAC is pretty rivalry sensitive. In other words, Cal and Stanford get a decent number playing each other, but their games sans USC and Oregon are terrible. Sure, you can say you're going to keep those rivalry games and swap out Cal-Oregon State with some big 10 matchup, but then you're changing out a game for a Big 10 team against a current conference member with a dog like Cal.

In general I think the ratings for the PAC teams would go up some by going to Big 10 and the Big 10 teams' ratings would go down. My opinion is that what works well in CFB is a schedule that is heavy with regional and traditional ties with an occasional game outside those norms.
 

BWRhasnoAC

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I think that's the problem with trying to bring over a large group of schools. USC for sure and Oregon possibly could make the claim they are in that second tier of value with Michigan, PSU and Wisconsin. The rest of the PAC schools really have no argument to make. UCLA probably thinks they are because of their name, but they simply aren't a football draw. UW is regionally popular but not a draw nationally, same goes for Utah. Frankly the other PAC schools are just terrible from a media perspective. Maybe there are scenarios where there some synergy, but beyond those schools you'd be adding redundant markets with Maryland or Illinois TV interest. Again, hard to predict, but it seems like the PAC is pretty rivalry sensitive. In other words, Cal and Stanford get a decent number playing each other, but their games sans USC and Oregon are terrible. Sure, you can say you're going to keep those rivalry games and swap out Cal-Oregon State with some big 10 matchup, but then you're changing out a game for a Big 10 team against a current conference member with a dog like Cal.

In general I think the ratings for the PAC teams would go up some by going to Big 10 and the Big 10 teams' ratings would go down. My opinion is that what works well in CFB is a schedule that is heavy with regional and traditional ties with an occasional game outside those norms.
That's why I think we may see an entire reshuffle to maintain regional interest.
 

CascadeClone

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In general I think the ratings for the PAC teams would go up some by going to Big 10 and the Big 10 teams' ratings would go down. My opinion is that what works well in CFB is a schedule that is heavy with regional and traditional ties with an occasional game outside those norms.

This might be the most obvious and important, yet least discussed, observation since all this started. If only someone at ESPN had this insight...
 
  • Agree
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WhoISthis

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I think that's the problem with trying to bring over a large group of schools. USC for sure and Oregon possibly could make the claim they are in that second tier of value with Michigan, PSU and Wisconsin.

The rest of the PAC schools really have no argument to make. UCLA probably thinks they are because of their name, but they simply aren't a football draw. UW is regionally popular but not a draw nationally, same goes for Utah. Frankly the other PAC schools are just terrible from a media perspective. Maybe there are scenarios where there some synergy, but beyond those schools you'd be adding redundant markets with Maryland or Illinois TV interest. Again, hard to predict, but it seems like the PAC is pretty rivalry sensitive. In other words, Cal and Stanford get a decent number playing each other, but their games sans USC and Oregon are terrible. Sure, you can say you're going to keep those rivalry games and swap out Cal-Oregon State with some big 10 matchup, but then you're changing out a game for a Big 10 team against a current conference member with a dog like Cal.
Agree, but my question is, what other choice does the Pac12 elite have? Would they pick being SEC satellites for a few million/year more? Because staying in the Pac 12 won't get them that. Adding Big 12 schools wont. I think the decision is almost all on the BIG (although I would much prefer the SEC add the Pac 12 elite)

Why would the BIG do it? Is a good question. Does preserving the BIG-Pac12 romance count for anything? If they can add 8-9 Pac 12 without lowering the BIG side, and it is the best political (can you get only one California state school?) and logistical addition, and the alternative is the Pac 12 elite going to the SEC, why not? I think most presidents would vote to add that huge academic capital and brand, reduce travel (over just 4), if it is no cost to them (only opportunity cost from adding just 4). Trying to integrate just 4 teams from LA to Seattle into a conference from Neb to NJ seems like something the wealthiest conference could give up some revenue to avoid.
 

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