This is 100% correct. There is very little upside to any new Pac deal. I know lots of people keep talking about Amazon coming in and somehow saving every conference but there isn't any indication that is happening anytime soon.
Big XII to add schools within days?
- Thread starter ILikeBacon
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I agree on most of this. I've reasoned for years, and still believe, that the marginal dollar goes much farther at an under-resourced place like ISU than a place like Texas. At some point this big programs run out of meaningful improvements to spend money on.
But I'm also starting to realize that is old-model thinking. In the new model, where the NIL opportunities you can offer players - and perhaps eventually the amount you can pay them directly - are a big part of the recruiting pitch, and CFB is organizing and consolidating around its biggest brands, I fear it's going to be much more expensive to keep up and merely treading water won't be good enough.
In my design curriculum they did teach us that the University of Cincinnati invented the concept of black and white. When did they stop having red as a school color?
I don’t think you can discount basketball so much.
Basketball will be a part of the conversation when the SEC separates and the NCAA is no more. That’s the end game now.
I gotta say. I'm kind of liking Cincy already. After having a taste of power conference life in the big east and having three straight coaches poached, going toe to toe with Georgia last year they are coming in salty and I like it.
I'm done with the doom and gloom. Let's have some fun with this.
If it's about blind TV markets...ala "rutgers brings New York"...then the new Big 12 has way more population than Pac 12. (huge chunk of midwest, Texas, Ohio, Florida, Utah, WVU)
If it's about who has the actual most fans that will actually watch tv, actually stream, actually buy streaming services just for football, actually buy tickets...the remaining 8 or the new Big 12 have more of an advantage too.
By either metric the Pac doesn't have an advantage. I think some of the ACC markets are pretty weak in the "actual fans" metric as well, although obviously the ACC footprint has massive cable tv population footprint.
You can't discount MBB, but there's no denying football steers the ship because it brings in so much more money. If MBB were equally important I'd bet KU would've gotten its B1G invite by now.
I’ll be interested to see how OU comes out in all this. There is only one direction for them to go and that is down.
Also important to note that for the ACC, PAC and Big 12 the media deals are smaller, and the basketball deals are going to matter more. It won't matter at all in the SEC because the football is massive, the basketball kind of sucks and nobody cares. The basketball will have a tiny impact on the total media revenue. Big 10 has good hoops and fans care, but it's still a relatively small amount of value due to the huge $ in football.
Basketball in the PAC, Big 12 and ACC is going to matter more if for no other reason than an extra few million starts to matter when your team media distributions are closer to the $30 mil range.
The SEC wants pay to play. With NIL the cat is out of the bag.
It’ll be interesting if the Alliance can withstand that.
The SEC is one or two more key brands from being able to walk and start their own thing Imo. USC and Clemson would do it.
The lost revenue from the basketball tournament could be big. Maybe they add the Big 12 (KU) and Big East and start their own.
Alliance (what’s left) vs SEC would be great postseason theater.
if iowa St could end up in a pay to play conference with equal revenue sharing, it levels the playing firl
We'll make up the difference once Pollard's Burgers and Brew opens in the entertainment district and we start state wide bake sales and pop can collections.
But if there was ever a time to dig deeper into the wallet to help Cyclone athletics....it would be after that TV money takes a hit
Don't disagree with what you said but in person attendance doesn't matter at all. OSU has had a ticket problem for years now and has 10,000 unsold tickets for the Oregon game. Many people especially younger people see no value in attending a game in person, especially in an area like Columbus. Its really hard to even give tickets away to a lot of big ten schools unless they are box seats.
This idea that the SEC is about to walk away from the competition is so stupid and not at all based in reality. Do you know how bad ratings would be if the SEC formed their own mini NFL that didn't have affiliation in 75% of the country?
Also the Big Ten loves NLI and the donors can start flexing once schools get their priority's in line.
You’re assuming the BIG has figured things out enough to act, and even more KU doesn’t have something lined up pending OuT settlement/departures.
Have you looked at what the estimates are of redoing the payouts from the tournament without sharing with those that don’t participate ? Even if dropping the little guy results in less of a contract, it’s massive. The KU basketball brand and value in a nonlinear media future PLUS the tournament leaving the NCAAwould be equitable to most football only brands
Another aspect is the SEC is now a kingmaker. Memphis would quickly surpass Mississippi St if switched. KU would be top 15 overall brand in the SEC
I think you are missing the point when people talk about attendance. When we raise that, it's not that attendance provides much direct benefit, but with so many factors and unknowns it's a very good proxy to estimate how much active interest there is in a team to watch/subscribe. Things like OSU having 10,000 unsold tickets doesn't mean much in a massive venue, and I'm sure OSU doesn't exactly go out of its way to work on pricing to sell those last few thousands of tickets.
In person attendance is an indication of who would buy subscriptions or who is ACTUALLY WATCHING tv or streaming. Rutgers/Maryland aren't actually bringing eyeballs compared to dozens of other schools, they brought big cable TV market in the waning years where TV market was calculated that overly simplistic way.
ISU (or Nebraska any other original Big 8 team) brings more in a subscription model than Rutgers beyond any doubt. 60K+ in our stands week after week is an easy way to know that.
The thing is new Big 12 has more than the Pac 12 either way now by adding 100% of Florida and Ohio if the "rutgers" model still hangs on.
If we're in a world where Rutgers brings NYC...the Big 12 just added Ohio and Florida in full and they already had Texas x3. That trio alone exceeds the entire Pac 12 population footprint.
If we're in a world about actual subscription purchases to actually view games regardless of cable market matters...new Big 12 has more actual fans as indicated in part by in person attendance. I think there are huge holes in the ACC by that metric too where half of their programs don't really care or show up.
Cincy might be the worst Big 12 team for "actual eyeballs" but they are probably the #2 team in the conference if people are still in that model where Rutgers is an ultimate cash prize.
There’s data to suggest not bad at all. The SEC is king. They’re a national brand which is why they had CBS afternoon. To facilitate, until the Alliance crumbled, they’d likely toss the Big 12 3.0 and others some aid.
The more important question is do you know how devalued the second rate Alliance would be if the SEC (with USC and Clemson) walks? ND probably could be swayed if USC joined. That’s a lot of mouths for the Ohio St invitational to feed. No access to the most college football crazed parts of the country. A fraction of the most important brands.
In reality it would just be a power move, as the alliance would fold snd the BIG and what’s left of the Pac 12 and ACC would follow
No, the BIG loves some aspects of NLI, particularly the PR side. They do not like the pay for play future it will bring
USC needs to get paid soon, or things will get chaotic
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Its really not a good indicator of interest. Its a good indicator of how the in game atmosphere is, what else is available to do in the area, ease of access to the stadium etc. The in game experience is dying in most places not due to a lack of interest but because there are so many better ways to watch a game now without sitting in traffic for hours, paying insane concessions prices, and being jammed into tiny seats. I watch every single Michigan and state game but refuse to go in person unless its in a box. It just isn't worth it for the poor experience.
