Breaking down the UNI Panthers

cycloneG

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2007
15,976
16,614
113
Off the grid
It wouldn’t shock me if we lost this game …. and finish the regular season with one loss.
dumb-thats-dumb.gif
 

OnlyCyclones

Well-Known Member
Feb 27, 2017
1,290
1,608
113
I think this is overblown. Goodson is a very good running back. They averaged 4.6 YPC last year (48th in the country). Prior to that it was 3.9 (86th) 3.8 (88th) 3.8 (100th) 4.5 (52nd) 4.5 (59th). They are just okay on the ground or flat bad on the ground for half a decade now.
I’d be curious to see the YPC charted with percentage of total yards. Air raid offenses have been known to average high YPC but if it’s only 25-30% of your offense it doesn’t mean much. Or maybe charter with success rate.
 

BryceC

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 23, 2006
26,462
19,624
113
I’d be curious to see the YPC charted with percentage of total yards. Air raid offenses have been known to average high YPC but if it’s only 25-30% of your offense it doesn’t mean much. Or maybe charter with success rate.

Maybe. But they averaged less than 4 ypc for 3 of the last 4 years, and that's not a good average regardless of offense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: aauummm

Lyon309Cy

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2010
294
326
63
If UNI sells out to stop the run I expect several explosive runs. Like the Ok St game, but I doubt UNI has enough depth to keep it up all game. A lot of 1-2 yard runs and 2-3 home runs once the RB (or QB) breaks the initial line. We had the most big runs in the country last year due in part to teams selling out on Breece. I see tough sledding early, with hopefully enough of a passing game to keep grinding out long drives. And then somewhere in the 2nd quarter the UNI D wears out.
We're going to impose our will, and if UNI insists on loading the box rather than concede 4-5 yards at a time, they're going to break-not-bend. We could see multiple backs break multiple big runs. We have enough depth everywhere that we might run up the score without trying.
 

madguy30

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 15, 2011
57,293
55,200
113
If UNI is fact selling out to stop the run (which is smart) and is successful at it, no more of this vanilla bull ****.

Open it up and win the game.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

Well-Known Member
Dec 19, 2018
6,793
6,989
113
63
The UNI game should be 50 to 6 when its over, we are better at every position group on the field. If we want to be at the end of the year, where we all hope to be, then anything less than a total blowout is unacceptable.

No more excuses about looking past anyone or we are not ready, 85% of the team returns from last season, they know what its going to take, I expect a very business like game that destroys UNI, and the backups are playing most of the 3rd and all of the 4th quarter. If we are truly the 7th ranked team in the country, nothing less should be expected.
 
Last edited:

Frak

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2009
11,439
7,033
113
UNI will not be the only team that tries to stack the box against us. Any Def Coordinator should sell out to stop Breece, pressure Purdy, and force our downfield passing game to beat them. Shade help over Hutch or Kolar, see if Allen, Milton, Shaw, Scates can consistently win their matchups.

This will be the ultimate test of how much Purdy has improved with his decision-making. And if Manning has schemed more pressure-beaters and passes to Breece and Jirehl. I like our chances if teams play us 1v1 and Purdy has time to throw.

Agreed. I think that we're going to see a lot of plays this year like where Hutchinson beat OU on the slant. Everyone is going to be up in the box. Play action and one wrong step and it's a long run after catch. There's just not going to be a lot of Safety help with everyone concerned about Breece and the crossing routes with Kolar and Hutchinson. Guys like Milton and Scates are going to be in single coverage all the time. And Purdy is able to pick apart a zone if he has time. IMO there are very few teams on the schedule that are going to be able to get consistent pressure without blitzing. OU for sure. Not many others.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HardcoreClone

Frak

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2009
11,439
7,033
113
Whenever UNI beats ISU, they are usually really good (for their level) and ISU is pretty bad. When it's a close ISU win, UNI is usually still pretty good and ISU may or may not be good. Think 6-7 wins.

This year, ISU is top ten caliber and UNI isn't great (on their level). Expect an ass kicking. Maybe not by 35, but an ass kicking. ISU 37. UNI 13.

To me, the key has always been the running game. Historically, UNI has been a mini iowa. They are going to stop the run at all costs. ISU has not been a physical running team. And even though ISU has had a great advantage in skill players, it's a lot to ask for them to be on the same page with the QB in game 1. If you have to depend on the passing game to win, you invite the opportunity for mistakes. Good P5 teams beat FCS teams by wearing them down running the ball and going over the top with play action. If you are forced to throw the ball 40 times because your run game is stuffed, there's a good chance it's close at the end.

ISU now has the OL to wear a team like UNI down. Brinkman is a good FCS player, but guys like Newell, Downing, Simmons have seen way better players than him and held their own. I feel like this game might be within 10 at half, but by the start of the 4th, we're going to see a lot of Dekkers and Brock.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cypher

cyclonehomer

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 2, 2019
3,496
5,677
113
30
If UNI is fact selling out to stop the run (which is smart) and is successful at it, no more of this vanilla bull ****.

Open it up and win the game.
You would rather have the threat of deep shots on tape anyway. Can't wait to hear "didn't want to show too much of the playbook" as an excuse if the Cyclones don't take a couple shots to Scates/Shaw/Milton early. You WANT defenses to be wary of the threat, even if it's incomplete it still relieves pressure in the box.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ajspatio19

cyclonehomer

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 2, 2019
3,496
5,677
113
30
To me, the key has always been the running game. Historically, UNI has been a mini iowa. They are going to stop the run at all costs. ISU has not been a physical running team. And even though ISU has had a great advantage in skill players, it's a lot to ask for them to be on the same page with the QB in game 1. If you have to depend on the passing game to win, you invite the opportunity for mistakes. Good P5 teams beat FCS teams by wearing them down running the ball and going over the top with play action. If you are forced to throw the ball 40 times because your run game is stuffed, there's a good chance it's close at the end.

ISU now has the OL to wear a team like UNI down. Brinkman is a good FCS player, but guys like Newell, Downing, Simmons have seen way better players than him and held their own. I feel like this game might be within 10 at half, but by the start of the 4th, we're going to see a lot of Dekkers and Brock.
This reads like something written 15 years ago. Alabama and LSU have clobbered everyone the last two seasons and it's been mostly through the air. You just need playcallers who are aggressive enough to make them pay for stacking the box early and often and get the ball to your playmakers in space. If the run game is stuffed, it likely means you have Milton in single coverage on basically every play. Does Iowa State have receiver rooms like Bama and LSU the past couple years? Absolutely not. But it doesn't have to be that overwhelmingly talented to take advantage of those mismatches early and often against UNI.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: SEIOWA CLONE

Frak

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2009
11,439
7,033
113
This reads like something written 15 years ago. Alabama and LSU have clobbered everyone the last two seasons and it's been mostly through the air. You just need playcallers who are aggressive enough to make them pay for stacking the box early and often and get the ball to your playmakers in space. If the run game is stuffed, it likely means you have Milton in single coverage on basically every play. Does Iowa State have receiver rooms like Bama and LSU the past couple years? Absolutely not. But it doesn't have to be that overwhelmingly talented to take advantage of those mismatches early and often against UNI.

ISU has always had the WR talent to beat UNI DBs. Heck, they were in semi-close games with UNI when they had Lazard and Butler. I'll stand by my point that you beat UNI by wearing them down and then going over the top with play action. Not airing it out 40 times a game to WRs that are probably our weakest position group on offense (not that they're bad). LSU and Bama threw the ball all over against SEC teams. But when they played FCS teams, you can bet that they ran it a million times. That's the recipe when you're up against an overmatched DL with little depth. They also had multiple first round picks at WR plus a first round QB and RB. Comparing this ISU offense to them in any way is crazy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: khardbored

BCClone

Well Seen Member.
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Sep 4, 2011
67,661
63,733
113
Not exactly sure.
One thing we won’t see is Purdy run unless it’s a broken play or forced to, and then it will be get out or down ASAP. I think they will try to run the offense we had last year for the most part. That is what people will prep for outside of what we do Saturday.

I still think they try to keep it limited for the first 20 minutes and go from there. If UNI hangs in and doesn’t look to tire, then we will start opening it up some, otherwise they will try to have what they feel is a comfortable lead and mix players in.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: nrg4isu

CycloneVet

Well-Known Member
Jul 17, 2011
9,914
11,738
113
Cedar Falls
You would rather have the threat of deep shots on tape anyway. Can't wait to hear "didn't want to show too much of the playbook" as an excuse if the Cyclones don't take a couple shots to Scates/Shaw/Milton early. You WANT defenses to be wary of the threat, even if it's incomplete it still relieves pressure in the box.

Totally agree with this philosophy. Give them something to think about while also giving yourself a chance to see if something works in love game situations.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Cloneon