This doesn't make a lot of sense, but UT does a lot of stuff that doesn't make sense.
OU is the one that surprises me. They have as clear a path as you could ask for to the playoffs and plenty of money.
Both OU and UT must believe that when it comes time the Big 12 will not get proportionate money in the next TV round to the SEC or Big 10 or if they think the Tier 3 money will go down. The Big 12 is already gets more money per school than the ACC and PAC 12.
Best option for ISU if everything hits the fan and the Big 10 says no, is to try and work with the best and strongest schools from the AAC and the remaining Big 12 put together a conference that has a chance to grow stronger over time. Based on budgets and quality of play you would have to go with Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and maybe Memphis.
Like a lot of people, I am tired of dealing with this every year. UT has barely won half their Big 12 games in the last 10 years, how do they think they will fare in the SEC?