@knowlesjam
The NYC antibody data is embedded here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.amp.html
Looks like the post you were responding to had just a tiny little error. The antibody-positive rate for the Bronx was 27%, not 47%.
The overall antibody rate for NYC is still estimated at 20% positive. Still consistent with a fatality rate on the order of 0.5-1%. Which still would suggest a potential death toll of at least (330 million in US x 60% infection rate minimum needed for herd immunity x 0.5% conservative death rate=) 990,000 in the US before herd immunity could be achieved.
Lots of other very striking demographic data in the linked article: notably, only 7% of white NYC residents were positive for antibody, while 25% of Hispanic residents were positive. Yikes.
I think we're getting herd immunity mixed with social distancing. There's no way it's not spreading really fast as I've seen plenty of people not adhering to any sort of social distance guidelines.
Word was northern Wisconsin was slammed this weekend by all of the people traveling up for opening game fish season. That's just one example.
Positive: the local fishing stores needed the business. Negative: limited medical center capacity.
I also have some tin foil hat stuff going on that we're in a sort of 2nd wave, but that's not based on anything other than early dates of cases.