Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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agcy68

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Feb 9, 2007
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Please can we get this back on track without the same **** over and over?

I’ll go first... new projections tonight for Iowa...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Glad to see they finally updated. Changes that I noted:
- They finally gave Iowa credit for closing schools (although they claim it only happened on 4Apr
- HUGE drop in death estimates. Was almost 1500. Now less than 500
- HUGE drop in other metrics as well.

However, prior to the latest update their calculations were overestimating the death rate, but as of yesterday they are underestimating.
 

Die4Cy

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Jan 2, 2010
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I have a hard time believing anything from this Covid19 site. In 5 days, Iowa projections went from:

Beds Needed 4,655 to 726
ICU Beds Needed 702 to 150
Total Deaths 1,500 to 420

Maybe Reynolds people actually knew these type of numbers?

The only concern now is that people see these numbers and think it's "all clear" and this would be the worst week to actually be out.

It's a projection.

It is probably is using more data than the doomsday ones from a week ago, but that doesn't make it gospel yet, either.

If it comes to pass that this is even close to the actual results we will have done a good job.
 

knowlesjam

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Oct 21, 2012
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I have a hard time believing anything from this Covid19 site. In 5 days, Iowa projections went from:

Beds Needed 4,655 to 726
ICU Beds Needed 702 to 150
Total Deaths 1,500 to 420

Maybe Reynolds people actually knew these type of numbers?

The only concern now is that people see these numbers and think it's "all clear" and this would be the worst week to actually be out.
Yeah, the same site is now showing Nebraska with 459 deaths, which seems weird given that Nebraska currently has one third the deaths and cases that Iowa has had. Perhaps they haven't updated the Nebby numbers...
 

madguy30

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Glad to see the numbers are back down to what I think is more reasonable. I still don’t trust this model at all because I don’t think it has accurate data points.

Any projections that I've seen over the last day or two have been lower than earlier, including 100,000 so some potential positives there (vs. losing way more).

Also this stuff coming out about people that had it donating plasma for possible treatment might give some headway. I just don't know if there's a way to mass produce it vs. need.
 
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madguy30

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I have a hard time believing anything from this Covid19 site. In 5 days, Iowa projections went from:

Beds Needed 4,655 to 726
ICU Beds Needed 702 to 150
Total Deaths 1,500 to 420

Maybe Reynolds people actually knew these type of numbers?

The only concern now is that people see these numbers and think it's "all clear" and this would be the worst week to actually be out.

Yep, the first thing out in any message that's even positive needs to be 'KEEP STAYING HOME, this is not over, etc' because any sort of grey area will be enabling.
 

CyJack13

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May 21, 2010
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I have a hard time believing anything from this Covid19 site. In 5 days, Iowa projections went from:

Beds Needed 4,655 to 726
ICU Beds Needed 702 to 150
Total Deaths 1,500 to 420

Maybe Reynolds people actually knew these type of numbers?

The only concern now is that people see these numbers and think it's "all clear" and this would be the worst week to actually be out.

This is at least the third week in a row that has been described as "this will be the worst week".
 

CyJack13

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May 21, 2010
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And each time they've been right. I expect next week will probably make it 4/4

Then they need to change their messaging because it loses any sort of effectiveness if you tell people that THIS WEEK, this is the week you really need to shelter in place, this is going to be the worst week, every week for an entire month.
 

madguy30

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This is at least the third week in a row that has been described as "this will be the worst week".

And they'll be correct for about a month or longer in many places.

The key will be if the numbers stay low enough to be able to maintain services and get proper treatment.
 

Urbandale2013

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Jan 28, 2018
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And they'll be correct for about a month or longer in many places.

The key will be if the numbers stay low enough to be able to maintain services and get proper treatment.
I think the point they were getting at is it hasn’t been “this will be the worst week yet” it has been “this will be the worst week”. When it is the latter repeatedly it loses effectiveness fast.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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I’m kind of scared to actually know the amount of cases that are actually out there that have not been tested. Millions in this country easily likely.

I did some math on this, extrapolating from the deaths number. The trick is that you have to assume a true mortality rate, which is one thing that really is not known and won't be for a while yet.

If you assume 14 day lag time from contracting to dying, and assume mortality rates from 0.5% to 1.5%; then it works out that the actual infected compared with confirmed cases is somewhere between 3x and 8x. So confirmed atm is about 340k, so figure between 1-2M in reality.

It's out there in the wild, and it's not going to be eliminated like polio. In the end, there are only 2 things that will really stop this. Herd immunity once ~60% of people have had it, or a treatment that helps enough to reduce the mortality rate by an order of magnitude (or two).
 
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