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Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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Acylum said:
I guess the theory is if he has it she has it. He had worse symptoms and presented first. Of course that means she may never show up as a positive, but it's debatable how important that is right now. He's an AD at a good-sized HS, she's semi -retired and a part-time school nurse. He would've exposed many more people. I can understand the reasoning to assume if he's positive, she's positive, and let's save the test for a case that's more in doubt. Also they've been self-quarantined for about a week now.
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If he gets the results back in a week, do they then both self quarantine for 2-3 more weeks? More?
 
Acylum

Acylum

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Nov 18, 2006
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madguy30 said:
If he gets the results back in a week, do they then both self quarantine for 2-3 more weeks? More?
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He was tested yesterday, and was told 5 days for results. I don't know the answer to your question, but I'll see if I can find out.
 
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isutrevman

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Jan 30, 2007
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besserheimerphat said:
Exponential just means it grows at a constant percentage. That percentage doesn't have to be 100% (doubling every day). But it will double over a repeatable period. So it may double every 3 days, or 4 days, or 5 days. I think the US in general has been doubling about every 3 days.
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Here's some numbers: The first confirmed U.S. case was on Jan 19th. He returned from Wuhan on the 15th, so we'll conservatively say that is when the virus started in the U.S. It was likely well before that. That was 71 days ago. Assuming it doubles every 3 days, we should be around 8-9 million cases in the U.S. So either the rate of spread statics are significantly flawed, or the fatality rate and % of cases that require medical attention are extremely low.

That is with a start date of January 15th. It was likely in the U.S. before that, maybe as early as late December.

I'm starting to wonder if the virus isn't that deadly it's just infecting an incredibly high number of people in a very short time span resulting in a high number of deaths in a short time span.

Or, for some reason the growth rate was stunted for a while.
 
Rabbuk

Rabbuk

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Mar 1, 2011
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isutrevman said:
Here's some numbers: The first confirmed U.S. case was on Jan 19th. He returned from Wuhan on the 15th, so we'll conservatively say that is when the virus started in the U.S. It was likely well before that. That was 71 days ago. Assuming it doubles every 3 days, we should be around 8-9 million cases in the U.S. So either the rate of spread statics are significantly flawed, or the fatality rate and % of cases that require medical attention are extremely low.

That is with a start date of January 15th. It was likely in the U.S. before that, maybe as early as late December.

I'm starting to wonder if the virus isn't that deadly it's just infecting an incredibly high number of people in a very short time span resulting in a high number of deaths in a short time span.

Or, for some reason the growth rate was stunted for a while.
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We could very well have 8-9 million cases currently as most are mild/asymptomatic and our testing is lackluster. We know many people have gone to doctors with symptoms consistent with it and have been told to just go home.
 
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mywayorcyway

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Mar 1, 2012
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isutrevman said:
The first confirmed U.S. case was on Jan 19th. He returned from Wuhan on the 15th, so we'll conservatively say that is when the virus started in the U.S. It was likely well before that. That was 71 days ago. Assuming it doubles every 3 days, we should be around 8-9 million cases in the U.S.
Click to expand...

The number of days between doubling up was much further apart when the virus begin spreading. That length of time has continued to shorten over the last two months.
 
besserheimerphat

besserheimerphat

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2006
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Mount Vernon, WA
isutrevman said:
Here's some numbers: The first confirmed U.S. case was on Jan 19th. He returned from Wuhan on the 15th, so we'll conservatively say that is when the virus started in the U.S. It was likely well before that. That was 71 days ago. Assuming it doubles every 3 days, we should be around 8-9 million cases in the U.S. So either the rate of spread statics are significantly flawed, or the fatality rate and % of cases that require medical attention are extremely low.

That is with a start date of January 15th. It was likely in the U.S. before that, maybe as early as late December.

I'm starting to wonder if the virus isn't that deadly it's just infecting an incredibly high number of people in a very short time span resulting in a high number of deaths in a short time span.

Or, for some reason the growth rate was stunted for a while.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I should have clarified. If you use the date where each country had 100 confirmed cases, the doubling rate is 3 days. You are correct it has not been doubling in the US every 3 days since the first known case. It takes a while for the rate to reach equilibrium.

Source: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
 

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madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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FWIW I believe she did this with lower numbers than what WI did, but it might also be based on number of cases vs. number of medical facility availability.
 
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madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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Acylum said:
14 days from test date.
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Interesting...my question would be to wonder if it takes those 14 days for the other person to even contract it, should they quarantine for longer.

Hoping for the best possible outcome either way.
 
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