Living and dying on the defensive rebound

SolarGarlic

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Jan 18, 2016
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I appreciate the statistics and your posts show quite a staggering correlation.

That being said, I can't get on board with saying Jacobson is a great rebounder most games. I'm sure he's got decent numbers for the season, but the eye test shows he is completely over-matched athletically by basically every Big XII big man we've faced and I don't recall many occasions where he's competing for a rebound and he wins the battle and snatches it cleanly out of the air. I posted something similar in another thread. I'm not knocking his effort and am not by any means blaming him for our rebounding struggles as he does what he can with his god-given athleticism and I applaud the effort, but defensively he is always going to be a liability at this level.

Recency bias here.

Jacobson was one of the main reasons we won at Texas Tech. If he could jump higher than 20 inches, he'd be an elite rebounder.
 

andymhallman

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Nov 28, 2012
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Fairfield, Iowa
Some people have suggested playing two bigs at once. I don't know if that's really the problem with our rebounding. I think the other team is just going after the ball harder than we are. There were a few times in the Baylor game where Baylor stripped the ball from one of our guys, or was just constantly getting in better position for the rebound.
 

Dingus

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May 23, 2013
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We have watched Jacobson playing nearly three years against P5 competition. His defense over that large sample is not surpassed by Lard, and that’s with Lard benefiting from the fact defensive ratings are bias towards blocks more than they are doing your job.

Why do you think his playing time has been so limited? You think he’s sitting on the bench because he’s a better defender? Those are some valid reasons as to why he hasn’t been better, but that doesn’t mean he has, in fact been better.

If your response to who has been a better defender references a hypothetical ceiling and future play, you’re not answering the question, which is understandable.
This season, Conference per 100 possessions to compare apples to apples:
Jacobson DRtg: 100.2
Lard DRtg: 100.6

Career, Per 100 possessions (all games, different leagues of course)
Jacobson DRtg: 101.3
Lard DRtg: 102

If there are better stats to use, let me know. Otherwise I'm not sure what backs up your assertion that Jacobson is so much better than Lard at defense.

Other interesting tidbit: Lard leads rotation players in Win shares/40, by a large margin:
Lard: 0.201
Wigginton 0.137
Jacobson 0.136
Etc. (last among rotation players THT with 0.80)

Quite simply, Lard needs to play as many minutes as his foul situation allows.

But RE offensive rebounds vs Baylor, the guys I'm assuming Lard and Jacobson were guarding all game (Gillespie and Thamba), had 5 ORebs. Baylor's guards had 13(!) ORebs. Lard and Jacobson each had only 2 DRebs, which is pathetic. But they can't box 2 guys out at once. It was primarily Baylor's guards that destroyed us on the boards. Babb and THT each had 6 Drebs. Shayok and Wigginton, who are both very good rebounders, had 3 Drebs between the two of them. I'd be really interested to see whose guy's were actually getting all those offensive rebounds. ****, Mason had 2 offensive rebounds; Babb and THT were our only guys who had more defensive rebounds than that.
 

MK24Cy

Member
May 18, 2018
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We have watched Jacobson playing nearly three years against P5 competition. His defense over that large sample is not surpassed by Lard, and that’s with Lard benefiting from the fact defensive ratings are bias towards blocks more than they are doing your job.

Why do you think his playing time has been so limited? You think he’s sitting on the bench because he’s a better defender? Those are some valid reasons as to why he hasn’t been better, but that doesn’t mean he has, in fact been better.

If your response to who has been a better defender references a hypothetical ceiling and future play, you’re not answering the question, which is understandable.

If Lard and Jacobson had both been available for a full offseason and both been splitting time from game 1, then it would be fair to say that a hypothetical ceiling is a moot point as they both would've had ample opportunity to showcase their skills and they should be at peak performance by now, but the way his offseason and first 2 months of the season went, it's more than reasonable to include Lard's potential in a comparision with Jacobson. I'm not saying Jacobson doesn't deserve minutes, especially with some of his offensive performances, but if Prohm is gonna refuse to try any rotations with 2 bigs in at once, then we need to see how things play out with Lard starting and getting the larger share of minutes. We've seen Jacobson's ceiling and glaring athletic shortcomings on the defensive end despite his best efforts. With some minor improvements to footwork and positioning and cutting down the tendency to go for the big block, Lard could improve quite a bit still this season and seeing as their current performance is basically a wash/slight edge to Lard(based on Dingus stats), Lard's athleticism and potential make him the clear favorite for the majority of minutes going forward.
 

MK24Cy

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May 18, 2018
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Recency bias here.

Jacobson was one of the main reasons we won at Texas Tech. If he could jump higher than 20 inches, he'd be an elite rebounder.

I don't think Jacobson's lack of athleticism(which you acknowledge) is a product of recency bias...
 
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PAcyclone

Member
Dec 1, 2014
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I agree with some of your premise Earth is Man.....The team that usually wins is the tougher team and this ISU team is very weak at home...My idea is that they cant take the pressure of playing inside Hilton Colisem, thus leading to very few points at the end of games......re: rebounding and defense ...very little of either last nite, too many uncontested shots by Baylor for 3 pointers and Rebounding was a complete disaster ...also this team blows very hot and very cold on Offense and if the 3 pointers are falling they win, if not they Lose...The way this team plays defense and rebounds none of them would see the playing floor for Larry Eustacy......You may not like it but thats the honest truth.....
I remember Larry E getting a technical for yelling at his own players because they didnt box out on a free throw miss. I agree absolutely
 

PAcyclone

Member
Dec 1, 2014
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Lard was good; great energy and hustle. I do wish he had stayed home a little more often instead of chasing blocks and taking himself out of the play. But other than that I can't complain about his game.

Lard is talented but he spends too much time off of his feet either in the air or on the floor. He cannot keep his base under him and is always falling down. He is not a physical player and when he's your only big in the game, you give up many offensive boards. Lets face it, they never call fouls on offensive rebounders shoving our guys under the basket so if you are not boxing out physically you lose. Have we out rebounded any team this season? That is an honest question.
 

isubett

Member
Jan 28, 2015
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This team is no different than the teams in the recent past. They do not have the right type of athletes to be a good rebounding team. The talent on this team is as good, if not better than Iowa State can expect to have. But with these players, rebounding is always going to be a problem against good rebounding teams.

My solution would be to make the other teams pay for crashing the boards. The inbound pass ought to be to half court with everyone sprinting to the other end. Get a few layups and they might have to stop crashing the boards. At the very least it becomes a different game. Another option would be to full court press them. That might make them put more guards on the floor to break the press.

Iowa State is not going to beat teams like Baylor with the type of players they can recruit unless there is a change in strategy.
 
  • Disagree
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IASTATE4LIFE

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Apr 22, 2010
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I think the formula to beat us has been exposed for some time this season. It is pretty simple. Guard penetration, with a pick or not, because our guards can't stop anyone off the bounce. Draw the big, one isn't athletic enough to get there, the other over commits to block everything. Backside rotation doesn't happen, so you either dish or you get the offensive rebound. Teams that do this have a chance to beat us unless we have an incredible offensive performance, which we have numerous times.

Until our guards can stop someone, and our rotations get better we won't get into the correct spot to even get a block out.

The effort from our guards defensively was piss poor at best against Baylor and has been a trend.

Box outs and rotations have been equally piss poor.

I really don't think it matters if you play more bigs like some have asked for. 2 bigs not blocking out, still won't get you a rebound.

Good thing our offense is pretty freaking good. Hopefully we can turn up the intensity on defense down the stretch.
 

Cyrealist

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Sep 25, 2013
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Some people have suggested playing two bigs at once. I don't know if that's really the problem with our rebounding. I think the other team is just going after the ball harder than we are. There were a few times in the Baylor game where Baylor stripped the ball from one of our guys, or was just constantly getting in better position for the rebound.
There were numerous times when our guys were standing watching the shot and the Baylor guys just ran right around them. It's effort or coaching or both. And, if guys are standing around out there, why are they on the floor? I would love to see a coaching change, but I suppose mediocrity isn't enough to force that to happen.
 
  • Agree
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Cyrealist

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Sep 25, 2013
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Iowa State is not going to beat teams like Baylor with the type of players they can recruit unless there is a change in strategy.
I disagree. We have plenty of talent as we have shown in the games where we play well, We just haven't had consistency in effort or execution. I believe that falls on the coaches. I've written off this season and realistically, I see little reason to believe next year will be any better.
 

FinalFourCy

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Mar 5, 2017
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This season, Conference per 100 possessions to compare apples to apples:
Jacobson DRtg: 100.2
Lard DRtg: 100.6

Career, Per 100 possessions (all games, different leagues of course)
Jacobson DRtg: 101.3
Lard DRtg: 102

If there are better stats to use, let me know. Otherwise I'm not sure what backs up your assertion that Jacobson is so much better than Lard at defense.
.
I said Jacobson's "defense over that large sample is not surpassed by Lard"- that is not contending that Jacobson is so much better on defense.

If you followed the thread, it was alluded by another poster, if not stated, that Lard is a better defender. I disagree- my assertion is that Lard is not a better defender, and if you take into account offensive rebounds given up and block bias inherent to the DRtg, is likely worse. So much worse? No.
 
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MK24Cy

Member
May 18, 2018
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I said Jacobson's "defense over that large sample is not surpassed by Lard"- that is not contending that Jacobson is so much better on defense.

If you followed the thread, it was alluded by another poster, if not stated, that Lard is a better defender. I disagree- my assertion is that Lard is not a better defender, and if you take into account offensive rebounds given up and block bias inherent to the DRtg, is likely worse. So much worse? No.

If it's the final possession of the game and Dedric Lawson is matching up one-on-one with either Jacobson or Lard, you think Jacobson presents a better option for making a defensive play that keeps Lawson from scoring the basketball?
 

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