While today has sucked, I don't think a single one of these projections made these thinking we'd beat Texas today. Even at 6-6 I think we will have a great shot at the Meinke Car Care Bowl in Houston.
Week 11 Bowl Projections
- Thread starter dualthreat
- Start date
Meineke Car Care Bowl does seem to be the "convention wisdom" regarding an ISU bowl berth. Likely opponent would be Purdue or Minnesota with an outside shot at Michigan State.
National brand and television ratings. Fair or not, TCU has established themselves as a very recognizable brand in the college football landscape. Winning the Rose Bowl will do that. I don't believe that TCU would go before ISU in all cases, but if you are talking about the Holiday Bowl - I strongly believe that the Frogs would be chosen over the Cyclones if they have the same record.
One thing to remember is that the Holiday Bowl really doesn't want a 6-6 team in their game; however, I am projecting that they will in fact take a 6-6 TCU over a 7-5 West Virginia (mostly because I think WVU is destined for NYC)
ISU travels better then TCU. Plus, TCU won't be excited to go to the Holiday since they have been in the Rose Bowl the past 2 years...think ISU will come out in droves if they get picked for the Holiday.
Perhaps. We shall see. I could be wrong.
If the Holiday Bowl is more concerned with selling an extra 5-10,000 tickets than having a stronger brand and pleasing their television partner, then ISU might get the nod.
However, I stand by my decision to project TCU in the game as of today.
Let's break this down. Projecting out the rest of the season assuming no upsets (which is never the case):
1. Kansas State, 12-0 (National Championship)
2. Oklahoma, 10-2 (BCS)
3. Texas, 9-3 (Cotton)
4. Texas Tech, 9-3 or 8-4 (Alamo)
5. Oklahoma State, 8-4 or 7-5 (Buffalo Wild Wings)
6., 7., and 8. - see below
9. Baylor, 4-8
10. Kansas, 1-11
So it is going to boil down to TCU, West Virginia, and Iowa State for these three bowls, in order:
Holiday
Meineke Car Care
Pinstripe
TCU is very likely to finish 6-6. West Virginia and Iowa State are both likely to be 6-5 not including the outcome of the game between them.
If Iowa State beats Kansas and West Virginia, I'm thinking that we'd be Holiday Bowl bound. If we just beat KU and lose to WVU, something tells me we'd be going back to the Pinstripe. TCU is a better national draw for TV and will be perceived as a better draw for the stands in Houston as well.
The real wrench here could be if ISU loses to KU but beats WVU. There would be three 6-6 teams for those three bowls. As has been mentioned, the Pinstripe would love to get WVU to face Pitt. I would imagine the Meineke Car Care would also much prefer TCU. Perhaps a deal would be worked out to send ISU to the Holiday.
That's why I think that, if ISU beats WVU, the Holiday Bowl is the most likely destination for the Cyclones regardless of the outcome of this weekend's game.
Note: This is all dependent on the Big 12 getting two into the BCS. I think this is extremely likely if Oklahoma wins out, but that is an "if." If the Big 12 only manages one into the BCS, the picture changes. Holiday moves up to Oklahoma State's slot, and the three bowls to fight over for TCU, WVU, and ISU become Meineke Car Care, Pinstripe, and Heart of Dallas. The picture would change considerably. I don't think this is likely, but it is certainly possible.
1. Kansas State, 12-0 (National Championship)
2. Oklahoma, 10-2 (BCS)
3. Texas, 9-3 (Cotton)
4. Texas Tech, 9-3 or 8-4 (Alamo)
5. Oklahoma State, 8-4 or 7-5 (Buffalo Wild Wings)
6., 7., and 8. - see below
9. Baylor, 4-8
10. Kansas, 1-11
So it is going to boil down to TCU, West Virginia, and Iowa State for these three bowls, in order:
Holiday
Meineke Car Care
Pinstripe
TCU is very likely to finish 6-6. West Virginia and Iowa State are both likely to be 6-5 not including the outcome of the game between them.
If Iowa State beats Kansas and West Virginia, I'm thinking that we'd be Holiday Bowl bound. If we just beat KU and lose to WVU, something tells me we'd be going back to the Pinstripe. TCU is a better national draw for TV and will be perceived as a better draw for the stands in Houston as well.
The real wrench here could be if ISU loses to KU but beats WVU. There would be three 6-6 teams for those three bowls. As has been mentioned, the Pinstripe would love to get WVU to face Pitt. I would imagine the Meineke Car Care would also much prefer TCU. Perhaps a deal would be worked out to send ISU to the Holiday.
That's why I think that, if ISU beats WVU, the Holiday Bowl is the most likely destination for the Cyclones regardless of the outcome of this weekend's game.
Note: This is all dependent on the Big 12 getting two into the BCS. I think this is extremely likely if Oklahoma wins out, but that is an "if." If the Big 12 only manages one into the BCS, the picture changes. Holiday moves up to Oklahoma State's slot, and the three bowls to fight over for TCU, WVU, and ISU become Meineke Car Care, Pinstripe, and Heart of Dallas. The picture would change considerably. I don't think this is likely, but it is certainly possible.
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I doubt Pitt will be going bowling after losing to UCONN...the 4th big east team will likely be Syracuse.
Yep, you are right I missed that. Changes things a little, but the big takeaway in my mind is that ISU has a very good chance to play in the Holiday Bowl by closing out the season with wins in two very winnable games.
If ISU beats a ranked Pac-12 opponent (maybe Stanford or UCLA) in the Holiday Bowl to finish 8-5, even better!
Obviously, I did not have ISU winning the last two games. If they do, that would obviously change my projection.
With three weeks remaining, there are still a multitude of variables. I do agree with many of your conclusions.
I was annoyed by the "experts" making bowl projections based on the current standings many years ago, so I developed a method of projecting based on predicting the games yet to be played. It's the only way to accurately do this. As you have pointed out, one different result than is expected will have a huge impact across the board.
