Iowa State dismantles Kansas State

[IanSmith]

Hey Fanatics,

Is Iowa State in the Big Dance? I'd hope so after Wednesday night's big win over Kansas State.

The Cyclones allowed only 33 points, which is a record for them in Big 12 play. Read more about it here.

Iowa State dismantles Kansas State

 

[HiltonMagic23]

Hell yes. Big win for the resume

 

[cyclone13]

I hope so and I think so. BF has gained earned more than enough respect from the selection committee.

 

[mred]

We have a solid 4-6 record against the RPI top 50 (2-5 against the RPI top-25). Our 4-4 record against 51-100 looks mediocre, but three of those losses (and three wins) are against RPIs # 52, 53, and 54. Our worst loss is @ #70, which isn't a bad loss. We've played very well recently. That's the stuff the committee looks at, and that looks pretty good for us.

 

[BenEClone]

Historically the committee has given some weight to the last ten games to recognize improvement. We've given them reason to put us in if they want but our rpi isn't likely to be high enough to sleep through the selection show. We're certainly in the top 32 of those who aren't conference champs. We've finished in the top five of the top conference; have the same record as and swept KSU which is has an rpi in the teens. We're suffering, again, from a too easy non-con. Do we know our current rpi/post KSU win?

 

[Buster28]

Historically the committee has given some weight to the last ten games to recognize improvement. We've given them reason to put us in if they want but our rpi isn't likely to be high enough to sleep through the selection show. We're certainly in the top 32 of those who aren't conference champs. We've finished in the top five of the top conference; have the same record as and swept KSU which is has an rpi in the teens. We're suffering, again, from a too easy non-con. Do we know our current rpi/post KSU win?

We got bumped up to 41st according to realtimerpi. I thought we'd get a bigger boost than that. Kansas State dropped one spot to 14 after the loss. The Sagarin numbers haven't yet been updated to reflect yesterday's games.

 

[BenEClone]

I'm still stunned by the rpi disparity between KSU and ISU. In terms of actual team strength, we ought to be much closer to KSU. Deb handled her schedule better to boost their SOS and rpi. As a result they are clearly in and we're hoping. In the non-con portion of the schedule, KSU played 2 games against 2xx rpi teams and 3 games against 1xx rpi teams. ISU played 1 game against a 3xx team (0-25 Houston Baptist #342), 4 games against 2xx rpi teams and 3 games against 1xx rpi teams. We need to move 3 or 4 of those non-con games up a 100 pts each on the rpi line - that can be done without much risk to our W-L record. Admittedly, we don't always know ahead of time - we both played 2 Missouri Valley teams, and by luck of the draw, their opponents are about 75 rpi ahead of ours. (UNI 141 and Drake 156 vs Wichita St 105 and Mo. St. 45)

An observation - UConn (rpi # 4) has 8 games against 1xx rpi teams and 3 games against 2xx rpi teams. But their SOS is #5 because the lower teams are offset by higher teams. Our SOS is a respectable 27 while KSU is #4.

 

[Buster28]

I'm still stunned by the rpi disparity between KSU and ISU. In terms of actual team strength, we ought to be much closer to KSU.

The Sagarin ratings were finally updated reflecting the win against the Mildcats. I think maybe these number show what we did in the month of February a little better than the RPI numbers. Here's how the league looks according to this formula:

1) Baylor
9) Texas A&M
18) Oklahoma
25) Iowa State
31) Texas
36) Kansas State
38) Texas Tech
39) Oklahoma State
41) Kansas
79) Missouri

Also, here's a look at Sagarin's SOS numbers from the same update:

2) Texas A&M
3) Kansas State
4) Baylor
5) Oklahoma
6) Texas
7) Oklahoma State
10) Iowa State
18) Missouri
19) Texas Tech
24) Kansas

Gotta say that when the worst team for Big 12 SOS is ranked 24th, anyone who questions that we're the toughest conference has a screw loose.

The Jeff Sagarin/CBN Women's College Basketball Ratings | RPIRatings.com

 

[mred]

As a result they are clearly in and we're hoping.

I think the big thing in our favor right now is recent performance. KSU is currently 5-5 in their last 10. However, they can't make that stat better because their two earliest games in that 10-game stretch are both wins. It'd be more correct to say they are 3-5 in their last 8 games since they have at least two games left. We are 6-2 in our last 8 games, and that includes 2-0 vs. the RPI top-25.

I think KSU is in no matter what with that gaudy RPI. I think we are in no matter what with our late-season run and no bad losses.

The best part of the KSU win is we can relax and not need a miracle @ Baylor. It might actually make us play better in that game with nothing to lose.

 

[Kitkat]

I think the big thing in our favor right now is recent performance. KSU is currently 5-5 in their last 10. However, they can't make that stat better because their two earliest games in that 10-game stretch are both wins. It'd be more correct to say they are 3-5 in their last 8 games since they have at least two games left. We are 6-2 in our last 8 games, and that includes 2-0 vs. the RPI top-25.

I think KSU is in no matter what with that gaudy RPI. I think we are in no matter what with our late-season run and no bad losses.

The best part of the KSU win is we can relax and not need a miracle @ Baylor. It might actually make us play better in that game with nothing to lose.

I have been thinking along the same lines; however, would the situation change if we played and lost to KState in our tournament?

 

[Three4Cy]

I'm still stunned by the rpi disparity between KSU and ISU. In terms of actual team strength, we ought to be much closer to KSU. Deb handled her schedule better to boost their SOS and rpi. As a result they are clearly in and we're hoping. In the non-con portion of the schedule, KSU played 2 games against 2xx rpi teams and 3 games against 1xx rpi teams. ISU played 1 game against a 3xx team (0-25 Houston Baptist #342), 4 games against 2xx rpi teams and 3 games against 1xx rpi teams. We need to move 3 or 4 of those non-con games up a 100 pts each on the rpi line - that can be done without much risk to our W-L record. Admittedly, we don't always know ahead of time - we both played 2 Missouri Valley teams, and by luck of the draw, their opponents are about 75 rpi ahead of ours. (UNI 141 and Drake 156 vs Wichita St 105 and Mo. St. 45)

An observation - UConn (rpi # 4) has 8 games against 1xx rpi teams and 3 games against 2xx rpi teams. But their SOS is #5 because the lower teams are offset by higher teams. Our SOS is a respectable 27 while KSU is #4.

This sums up KSU perfectly from Charlie Creme

Every year, each metric for analyzing teams shows an anomaly or two. This year, the Wildcats are one of those anomalies. They are a tournament team, but their status as a top-20 RPI team makes no sense.

 

[cydney]

This sums up KSU perfectly from Charlie Creme

Every year, each metric for analyzing teams shows an anomaly or two. This year, the Wildcats are one of those anomalies. They are a tournament team, but their status as a top-20 RPI team makes no sense.

It's possible the KSU's strong RPI could be from wins on the road. It struck me early in the season that they were playing better on the road than at home. Doesn't the new RPI formula give greater weight to road wins? Thus getting some road wins early in the Big 12 against good RPI teams, they kind of built up their RPI, and then playing in the Big 12, the RPI is not going to go down much.

Creme's comment somewhat shows his bias against the Big 12. He doesn't want to look far enough into the details to give credit to the difficulty of winning on the road in the Big 12.

 

[NYCy]

It's possible the KSU's strong RPI could be from wins on the road. It struck me early in the season that they were playing better on the road than at home. Doesn't the new RPI formula give greater weight to road wins? Thus getting some road wins early in the Big 12 against good RPI teams, they kind of built up their RPI, and then playing in the Big 12, the RPI is not going to go down much.

Creme's comment somewhat shows his bias against the Big 12. He doesn't want to look far enough into the details to give credit to the difficulty of winning on the road in the Big 12.

Yes, Creme's comment about K-State is off base because he doesn't like the Big 12. K-State's very high RPI is actually justifiable. They opened up Big 12 play by beating TAMU (#7), and during Big 12 they swept Kansas twice (#52), swept Texas twice (#54), and swept OkSt twice (#53). In Non-conference play they had the following victories:

BYU (#46)
Missouri State (#43)
Iowa (#42)
@ SoDakSt (#62)
@ Marist (#48)

Pretty darn respectable if you ask me. Iowa State did well to sweep K-State and ended up the season (after the Baylor loss) at RPI #40. Our RPI shot up 6 spots after the K-State win and Baylor loss. We're dancing.