You're putting far too much emphasis on the tournament to tell how good a team actually is.
The two years prior to Prohm ISU was *this close* several times to having a similar record. I remember they were down by 18 to UNI and still didn't close it out when it went to OT.
I can't tell off hand what ISU's record was when they lost to UAB. I know they were down by a bunch a few times before pulling out the Big 12 tourney and then imploded the next game.
I can't tell you much about the '97 Arizona team's regular season, but they played some crazy good basketball come tourney time.
I don't think this team makes any kind of NCAA run unless someone like Young gets crazy, but if they're remembered for a tourney bid, all will feel fine.