Never easy to tell how a guy will be after a season-ending knee injury. Just a hunch, Nelson seems like the type who would come back with a vengeance. I did forget how good Ingram was last year. I think Hopkins is QB proof though, had him last season too and he was a beast with horrible QB play most of the season.
I'm struggling with my strategy. Draft is next week, I pick #5 in 12 guy PPR. I've been hoping AP falls but the guy at 3 is leaning that way. Top pick will either be Antonio or D Johnson. If Johnson, AP and Gurley are all taken before it gets to me I'll be stuck. I always prefer locking down a stud RB1 when I pick in this position, but scared to death to take Elliott. I did a mock where I intentionally took a WR first to see how it would play out, ended up with Hopkins (1) which is ok, but landed on Jamaal Charles as my RB1. That's not good. So I either roll the dice on Elliott or go with a WR first and hope a better RB1 is there for me on the way back down.
Everyone has their strategies, but I always go with an elite wr first pick if I can, but Brown, Julio or OBJ probably won't fall to you. I don't value AP or Gurley as high as some in PPR, but if you go WR first pick, trends this year have wrs going off the board very fast. There will be some value in rb later, and as last year shows, injuries happen to rbs, so just load up on those. Guys like Woodhead, Bernard, Duke, Riddick, Ivory, Forsett will be available later. In my 14 PPR league, I'm hoping for a top 3 pick or a bottom 4 (we haven't drawn order yet). I look for high upside along with some other guys with consistency. At pick 5 I'd lean Julio/OBJ if there, then DJ if he's there. If you are thinking that 2 rbs (AP/Gurley) and 2 wrs (Brown, Julio/OBJ) are off the board, that should leave you maybe 1 of those top tier wrs to choose from and maybe hopkins and DJ. Charles is a top 5 rb, if healthy. What's tough is to know your drafts tendencies. Will it trend WR heavy like my other draft did, or guys still bank on having that rb first pick. This year I actually went Gronk first pick, which was days before him tweaking something.