New #1 Offense on KenPom
- Thread starter kucyclone
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It's basically your actual win-loss record minus your expected win-loss record based on O and D ratings. It means ISU, according to its efficiency ratings, is a slightly better team than its wins and losses have shown. "Luck" probably isn't the best name for it, but it works.
It's basically how you do in close games, assuming the average team would split those games.
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Interesting that all 10 Big 12 teams in top 30 for strength of schedule, only 1 Big 10 team (Wisconsin) in top 30. Six out of top 8 are Big 12.
A ranking of 304 means Iowa State is "unlucky", and has lost more games that the numbers say they "should" have won.
Last year their luck rating was around 170. The year before it was in the 40s. Of course that was the year with Kane. That dude was a CLOSER. Last year Naz had that role.
No Naz this year and suddenly we are "unlucky".
Without two last second Naz 3 pointers, Kane would have closed his way to a 9-9 B12 record.
Yes, in my experience watching those numbers the higher the luck the worse a team is at closing out tight games and the lower the luck the better they are in clutch situations.
Lots of the headscratcher teams in KenPom over the years have been teams that can't win tight close games. This is the closest ISU has been to one of those teams lately. That Tennessee/Iowa play in game a few years ago was a KenPom clash of the titans but in reality it was just two teams that were very good at keeping it close but couldn't close games.
It's not really hard to figure out, teams that win big when they win and lose close when they lose, are usually ranked higher in KenPom than in other polls, like Tennesee and Iowa as you mentioned. Teams that win a lot of close games, and lose big when they lose, like ISU two years ago and Maryland last year will be ranked a lot lower than most other polls.
#1 Offense in the country without our best shooter Naz Long and an offense dependent on floor spacing. That Fred Hoiberg guy knew how to put an offensive team together.
We're also at our highest ranking ever on Kenpom (#17). Can't wait for March Madness!
We've been ranked as high as 12 this year, 14 last year, and 10 the year before.
I'm talking about end of season not random points in the middle of the season. For this season, we don't know the future, so I'm referring to what we know so far.
I am assuming that has something to do with poor shooters throwing up wild and long shots in desperation that go, which we have seen a lot of this year against ISU.
