Line moving in Iowa's direction

[kilroy]

No the line moved because people were putting money on Iowa.

You've got it backwards. The line moves towards the direction that people are betting, not against it. This means that this afternoon a lot of money started to be put down for Iowa to cover the spread. Not that people were betting on ISU. If too much money was coming in for ISU to cover the line would move closer to zero. That's why I was wondering if somebody got hurt.

Uhh it it is the opposite. More people are betting Iowa. Since too many people were betting Iowa, they make the spread for Iowa to win bigger to encourage more bets on Iowa State.

And it doesn't matter in any way shape or form other than the ability for CPR to tell his team they are the underdogs. It's about vegas wanting to make sure it assumes as little risk as possible.

It is harder for an Iowa bet to win...... I think you are confusing a + sign and a - sign.

Iowa is favored, now they are favored by more. They have to win by more for you to win the bet now.

You have it reversed - if Iowa was -3 and went to -5 then they had too many Iowa bets. Remember that the Vegas line is not an attempt to even out the game - just to even out the money bet on that game. An ideal situation for them is umpteen million bet on each team so they will make the vig % and be very content. Plus they get the sucker bets (parlays & Doyles etc)

No he isn't. Too many people betting Iowa State would make the line go the opposite direction. They would make it harder for a person betting Iowa State to win. This prevents them from taking a big loss.

EDIT: lol second person in this thread to edit their post to the opposing viewpoint as I was correcting them. Understandable though, it is easy to get turned around on these lines.

Guess what, the 'smart money' happens immediately after the line is released (moved in ISU's favor) and the day before the event. We will see what happens on Friday night and Saturday morning. With the movement going on right now I'll make a wager that smart money will be betting on Iowa State.

So I wonder if people are betting on Iowa.:v_SPIN:

 

[kilroy]

Umm, can we get a line change in the betting forum for the IaState v Iowa game?

 

[cyclonepower]

Umm, can we get a line change in the betting forum for the IaState v Iowa game?

Not surprising Iowa seems to play A LOT better at home...

 

[CYme]

Umm, can we get a line change in the betting forum for the IaState v Iowa game?

Unless you are betting the outright win, does it matter? -3.5 or -5.5, you still expect ISU to win, right? Kilroy, tell me you bet on the good guys.

 

[00clone]

Unless you are betting the outright win, does it matter? -3.5 or -5.5, you still expect ISU to win, right? Kilroy, tell me you bet on the good guys.

Yes, it does matter. If you expect to win, but think it's even match and want to hedge your bets, you plunk down on the 3.5 line, then throw more at the 5.5 line with the hopes that you split if they lose close.

*edit: Although, to be honest, I don't bet, but was thinking I'd do that for the credits.

 

[Jambalaya]

Vegas knows that Iowa fans have an unfounded sense of superiority over all things ISU and will bet stupidly.

It's a sucker bet...and Iowa fans are notoriously gullible

 

[cyclone79]

The public will bet on the favorites more, they believe they are betting on the better team at home and it is an easy win. Home field advantage is not as much as the betting public believes when the visiting team is totally motivated.

There are betters waging money on this game that truely know nothing more than the historical statistics of the series. Odds are against a home team dog winning and then traveling on the road the following week. I would throw the stats out, this is a rivalry. The senior team has a huge advantage in my opionion. The bookies may get rich on this one, because the money is flowing on the home team. Go Cyclones!

 

[CynadoAlley]

The more Iowa is favored the better for me (assuming we win of course). Picking ISU all the way the pick-um league I'm in and throwing a lot of points on there

 

[clonestar12]

Vegas is either right on the money or horribly wrong. I'm hoping for the latter.

Vegas has been wrong on this game 85% of the time. Iowa is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games at Kinnick between ISU & Iowa. The hawks are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games against ISU overall. The bet is ISU on the moneyline. The last time the line was anywhere near where it is now, was in 2002......we know how that turned out.

 

[GoClones123]

Im putting my money on over/under how many intro shots coming off commercials from the big10network will focus on a corn field. its at 15 right now. I also have a side bet on how many times the announcer will explain to us about the new "helmet rule", thats at
+/- 1 thousand times per quarter. I chose over.

 

[goclones69]

its because everyone one in vegas knows that iowa is a national title contender again

 

[Judoka]

Well, I'm glad to know it doesn't look like anybody blew out an ACL.

I was asking because the time that the big shift occurred was right about the time practice gets out. So if there had been a key injury and word suddenly got out about it you would expect to quickly see a corresponding shift in the line.

 

[chuckd4735]

Well, I'm glad to know it doesn't look like anybody blew out an ACL.

I was asking because the time that the big shift occurred was right about the time practice gets out. So if there had been a key injury and word suddenly got out about it you would expect to quickly see a corresponding shift in the line.

If word got out of an injury, it would be all over CF before it effected the being line.

 

[Al_4_State]

Vegas knows that Iowa fans have an unfounded sense of superiority over all things ISU and will bet stupidly.

It's a sucker bet...and Iowa fans are notoriously gullible

I don't normally subscribe with Jambalaya's Hawk obsession, but he's pretty much right about this.


I have a buddy who follows lines very closely and likes discussing where a various line is it, and how it got there. He's shown me a million examples of Iowa's line being WAY too big in their favor, and not just when they're playing ISU. It seems that Iowa fans throw a **** ton of coin on the Hawks all year long. Iowa's very rarely covers or beats the spread against anyone, and that's intensified in this series.

 

[Judoka]

I don't normally subscribe with Jambalaya's Hawk obsession, but he's pretty much right about this.

I have a buddy who follows lines very closely and likes discussing where a various line is it, and how it got there. He's shown me a million examples of Iowa's line being WAY too big in their favor, and not just when they're playing ISU. It seems that Iowa fans throw a **** ton of coin on the Hawks all year long. Iowa's very rarely covers or beats the spread against anyone, and that's intensified in this series.

Because only half the people posting seems to actually pay attention to the question... I wasn't posting about the spread itself or whether the betting tends to favor the hawks more than it should based on historical results. I was posting about the fact that between 5:25PM and 6:25PM the line moved a whole two points in the direction of Iowa. That means that in that hour a whole bunch of money was put down for Iowa to cover at +3.5, and the bookkeepers had to adjust the line to bring it back to 50/50. Given that the "Over" also went up this means that people suddenly thought Iowa was going to score more points at 6:25 than they did at 5:25. Two points in an hour in the middle of the week is a lot of movement.

Date    Time    Fav    Dog    Fav    Dog    Over    Under    Fav    Dog    Fav    Dog
09/02    3:25pm             IOWA-4 -110      IOWAST+4 -110                             
09/02    6:05pm             IOWA-4 -115      IOWAST+4 -105                             
09/02    6:45pm             IOWA-4.5 -110      IOWAST+4.5 -110                             
09/02    6:50pm             IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110                             
09/02    6:55pm             IOWA-4 -110      IOWAST+4 -110                             
09/03    9:20am    IOWA-172     IOWAST+158      IOWA-4 -110      IOWAST+4 -110                             
09/03    9:55am     IOWA-162      IOWAST+148      IOWA-4 -110      IOWAST+4 -110                             
09/03    10:00am     IOWA-162      IOWAST+148      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110                             
09/03    5:25pm     IOWA-162      IOWAST+148      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110     47 -110     47 -110                     
09/03    5:40pm     IOWA-162      IOWAST+148      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110     46 -110     46 -110                     
09/04    10:15am     IOWA-165      IOWAST+145      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110      46 -110      46 -110                     
09/04    12:05pm     IOWA-165      IOWAST+145      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110     46.5 -110     46.5 -110                     
09/04    12:25pm     IOWA-162      IOWAST+148      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110      46.5 -110      46.5 -110                     
09/04    12:45pm     IOWA-174      IOWAST+154      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110      46.5 -110      46.5 -110                     
09/04    5:20pm     IOWA-174      IOWAST+154      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110     47 -110     47 -110                     
09/04    5:25pm     IOWA-174      IOWAST+154      IOWA-3.5 -110      IOWAST+3.5 -110     47.5 -110     47.5 -110                     
09/04    6:20pm     IOWA-199      IOWAST+169      IOWA-4 -110      IOWAST+4 -110      47.5 -110      47.5 -110                     
09/04    6:25pm     IOWA-199      IOWAST+169      IOWA-5 -110      IOWAST+5 -110      47.5 -110      47.5 -110                     
09/04    7:25pm     IOWA-196      IOWAST+174      IOWA-5 -110      IOWAST+5 -110      47.5 -110      47.5 -110                     
09/04    8:00pm     IOWA-199      IOWAST+169      IOWA-5 -110      IOWAST+5 -110      47.5 -110      47.5 -110                     
09/04    9:25pm     IOWA-199      IOWAST+169      IOWA-5 -110      IOWAST+5 -110     48 -110     48 -110                     
09/05    12:05am     IOWA-196      IOWAST+174      IOWA-5 -110      IOWAST+5 -110      48 -110      48 -110

(I know this specific sportsbook only moved to -5, but it was the best example to copy/paste, others moved the full 2 points)

 

[CLONECONES]

kinnick is a 6 point stadium usually...

 

[CYlent Bob]

kinnick is a GIANT PORTA JOHN usually...

FIFY

 

[Jambalaya]

its because everyone one in vegas knows that iowa is a national title contender again
________________________________________________________________--


close. Vegas is smarter than that.

its because everyone one in vegas knows that iowa fans think they're a national title contender again

 

[rholtgraves]

Some people must have put a lot of money down to move the line a couple points that fast.

 

[hawkfan]

It seems that Iowa fans throw a **** ton of coin on the Hawks all year long. Iowa's very rarely covers or beats the spread against anyone, and that's intensified in this series.

Tell your friend he is an idiot if this is what he bases his theory on. Iowa is 68-53-2 against the spread since 2002.

2011 & 2006 were the only years since 2002 when Iowa was worse than .500 against he spread (including a putrid 2-10 in 2006, if not for that horrid year, the percentage would be much better). And no, I'm not trying to skew stats by starting at 2002 with these stats - that is as far back as the current Phil Steele mag goes, which is why I started with that date.