SoS for 2014

[cycophagus]

ISU football's strength of schedule for season 123 will once again be among the elite, as it has been during the entire Rhode's era. This could be the most difficult ever. Posistive factors, though, are the 7 home games, versus 5 away games on the schedule, in addition to 2 well spaced bye weeks.

Here is Phil Steele's compilation using the traditional NCAA method, which accounts only for opponent's previous season W/L's.:
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/MAR14/DBMar15.html

ISU's schedule, #7 overall, is strongest of all Big 12 schools. OU's, #93, is the lowest. Their oppoents were actually sub .500 last year, as are the I-Hawks, whose schedule comes in at #85.

Interesting note: Dan McCarney's Green Machine will no doubt continue their ascension to prominence versus the #127 schedule, even though it includes a road trip to Austin.

Here is another view from SB Nation, ranking only the non-conference schedules:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...otball-out-of-conference-schedules-best-worst

ISU's schedule rank's #2 overall, trailing only Texas. 3-peat FCS champ NDSU, 4-0 versus the FBS in recent years, is no doubt a big reason for that.

Interesting note: Four Missouri Valley teams are including in the top 10 strongest slates of opponents. Again, these are strictly about W/L's from last year, but it is still something you would not expect.

 

[Aclone]

Who is this Rhode's?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Every year (in perpetuity right now) we are going to have...

Round-robin with 9/10 in the Big XII
Iowa
UNI/MVC team
Somebody else from a Division 1-A low-level conference, typically a MAC team

We might as well get used to this.

 

[pulse]

Our strength of schedule is seriously the biggest non-story of all time. Life in our conference dating back to the Big 8.

 

[Luth4Cy]

I wish the Big 12 would schedule one conference game for each team at a neutral site every season. That way every team would have the same number of home and away conference games.

 

[Istate]

Toughest from Hardest to Easiest

1) OU........Not going to win this one. Too many reasons to list
2) Texas....Not going to win this one. New excitement and toughness at Texas
3) OSU......Highly unlikely. Too many athletes
4) Iowa.....Highly unlikely. Too strong in the trenches
5) TCU......Unlikely but not improbable. Can they find a QB that can throw a forward pass?
6) TTech....Unlikely but not improbable. Tech's offense is going to be very good
7) Baylor.....Unlikely but not improbable. Baylor still has a ton of speed
8) KSU.......Possible. KSU has ISU's # but worst KSU since Snyder has been back
9) WVU......Possible. Home game. 20 degrees out. Thinking Kansas '13 game all over
10) NDSU....Probable. Lost some key starters and the head man himself. Loras coach beat ISU? Nope
11) Kansas..Probable. KU wasn't good last year and won't be better this year.
12) Toledo...Probable. Toledo won't be as bad as some might hope, but ISU doesn't lose to MAC at home

 

[IceCyIce]

Toughest from Hardest to Easiest

1) OU........Not going to win this one. Too many reasons to list
2) Texas....Not going to win this one. New excitement and toughness at Texas
3) OSU......Highly unlikely. Too many athletes
4) Iowa.....Highly unlikely. Too strong in the trenches
5) TCU......Unlikely but not improbable. Can they find a QB that can throw a forward pass?
6) TTech....Unlikely but not improbable. Tech's offense is going to be very good
7) Baylor.....Unlikely but not improbable. Baylor still has a ton of speed
8) KSU.......Possible. KSU has ISU's # but worst KSU since Snyder has been back
9) WVU......Possible. Home game. 20 degrees out. Thinking Kansas '13 game all over
10) NDSU....Probable. Lost some key starters and the head man himself. Loras coach beat ISU? Nope
11) Kansas..Probable. KU wasn't good last year and won't be better this year.
12) Toledo...Probable. Toledo won't be as bad as some might hope, but ISU doesn't lose to MAC at home

Injuries at the end of the year will cost us two of these wins. out of the 5 possible's - that will end up being 2-3 wins for next season. Hope Im wrong

 

[Wesley]

ISU football's strength of schedule for season 123 will once again be among the elite, as it has been during the entire Rhode's era. This could be the most difficult ever. Posistive factors, though, are the 7 home games, versus 5 away games on the schedule, in addition to 2 well spaced bye weeks.

Here is Phil Steele's compilation using the traditional NCAA method, which accounts only for opponent's previous season W/L's.:
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/MAR14/DBMar15.html

ISU's schedule, #7 overall, is strongest of all Big 12 schools. OU's, #93, is the lowest. Their oppoents were actually sub .500 last year, as are the I-Hawks, whose schedule comes in at #85.

Interesting note: Dan McCarney's Green Machine will no doubt continue their ascension to prominence versus the #127 schedule, even though it includes a road trip to Austin.

Here is another view from SB Nation, ranking only the non-conference schedules:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...otball-out-of-conference-schedules-best-worst

ISU's schedule rank's #2 overall, trailing only Texas. 3-peat FCS champ NDSU, 4-0 versus the FBS in recent years, is no doubt a big reason for that.

Interesting note: Four Missouri Valley teams are including in the top 10 strongest slates of opponents. Again, these are strictly about W/L's from last year, but it is still something you would not expect.

Cue lake Bison.....

 

[cycophagus]

I wish the Big 12 would schedule one conference game for each team at a neutral site every season. That way every team would have the same number of home and away conference games.

I recall this is coach Rhoad's smile opinion as well. Commish Bowlsby said that the same issue in the Pac 10 just could not be solved, so I doubt he will would push it.

Farmageddon @ Arrowhead was awesome. Do you suppose KU would agree to a 2 year deal there?

 

[madguy30]

...the schedule's not that daunting if ISU had some decent talent.

So, it's going to be daunting for them.

 

[Erik4Cy]

Why are we not scheduling like Iowa does?

Toledo is as bad as it gets..

Where is Tennessee Tech when you need them?

 

[bostrem00]

...the schedule's not that daunting if ISU had some decent talent.

So, it's going to be daunting for them.

Isn't that the annual preseason story?

 

[SoapyCy]

How can two teams that both play round Robin in same conference be 90 spots apart?

 

[BBHMagic]

...the schedule's not that daunting if ISU had some decent talent.

So, it's going to be daunting for them.

The 7th toughest schedule isn't daunting? Are you high or not good at math?

 

[huntt26]

No offense, but even if we had an easy schedule I don't think we'd win many games either

 

[dualthreat]

No offense, but even if we had an easy schedule I don't think we'd win many games either

We had a very tough schedule in 2012 and pretty easy in 2013. In 2012 I really think we were in the 25-35 caliber ranking yet only finished 6-7. Last year UNI, Iowa, Tulsa, Texas, Tech, TCU, Kansas and West Va weren't all that great. That's 8 teams we would have beaten with our 2012 team.

 

[madguy30]

The 7th toughest schedule isn't daunting? Are you high or not good at math?

Didn't Steele have it at 6th or something last year? I wouldn't say they played a lot of real good teams. Lots of average teams that looked really good against ISU.

That schedule has a lot of games that a team with some talent should at least be competitive in.

 

[Cycsk]

How can two teams that both play round Robin in same conference be 90 spots apart?

This is a good question. Some of it comes from the fact that we play them (highly rated) and they play us (lowly rated), but that can't account for all 90 spots.

 

[BBHMagic]

Didn't Steele have it at 6th or something last year? I wouldn't say they played a lot of real good teams. Lots of average teams that looked really good against ISU.

That schedule has a lot of games that a team with some talent should at least be competitive in.

I never said we wouldn't be competitive, I'm just saying there are about 100+ other schedules I'd rather face than the one we got.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don't see why everybody is so horrifically down on football for next year.

Granted, I don't think we'll be good, and seeing the Rhoads program "stall" at 6-6 is a little annoying (much better than Chizik, sure, and that one year at 7-5 with the road win at Nebraska and inspiring speeches was great, as was beating Texas in Austin, as was beating the #2 team in the country). Then again, remember how last year went down:

UNI - don't remind me, ugh don't remind me, but I hope we're done losing to MVC teams forever
Iowa - didn't go so well, but they didn't blow us out, neither program is really that good right now
Tulsa - won the rubber match, on the road, easily enough
Texas - remember how we almost won this? granted, that was one of the worst Texas teams we'll ever see, but we can play with some people
Texas Tech - played with them, though that was almost more them trying to give us the game than anything else
Baylor - hey, they were really good
Oklahoma State - likewise
Kansas State - really wasn't hoping for or expecting that...
TCU - one more drive at the end and we win this
Oklahoma - nope
Kansas - easy win
WVU - 3OT thriller, but at least we went out with a win

3-9

Two of those were blowouts in *our direction.*

WVU could have went either way, but we found a way in the end.

Three more were games we easily could have won (Texas, TCU, UNI).

Right there is 6-6. I don't think we were as bad as people thought last year--we've always had these blowout incidents, even in bowl years, we just didn't win close games last year in the same way we did the year or two before, and injuries ravaged us at so many positions.

Let's not forget how horrific our offense was most of the year. Assuming the defense stays the same and Magino can do something to the offense, I'd give us something like this:

NDSU = 80%
KSU = 35%
Iowa = 30%
Baylor = 15%
OSU = 15%
Toledo = 80%
Texas = 10%
Oklahoma = 5%
Kansas = 75%
Texas Tech = 50%
West Virginia = 65%
TCU = 40%

= 5 wins, most likely NDSU, Toledo, Kansas, Texas Tech (at home), West Virginia, and TCU

I would probably scratch TCU as a win and pick an upset (I'll say KSU early in the season in Ames, given neither team is "settled" and I think we're due) in there if I had to guess now for 5-7

We have to remember how awful our offense was the past however while. If Magino breathes some sort of life into it (and his track record suggests he will) we have to take a step forward from "down" last year to "back" to where we were as an average team that might sneak into a bowl game on an extremely tough schedule on winning a few close games and a big upset or two.