Post Season Thoughts- Weight by Weight

stuclone

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125- I think best case for Kysen is probably a R12 finish, worst case is a bad conference tournament in Tulsa and he doesn't get a bid to NCAAs. With how long he's been out, I am nervous about how he will look in Tulsa. I think he does end up doing enough to get to Philly and goes 2-2 and makes the R16.

133- Best case for Evan is an NCAA title- he can beat anyone at the weight. I think worst case is R12 finish. Most likely, Evan makes the semis and loses and then wins his consi semi and goes for 3rd and 4th. I love how he's been wrestling and I'm hopeful him being held out of Mizzou was truly precautionary and he's good to go in Tulsa.

141- Best case for Jacob is probably a 4th place finish- I am not sure I see him beating Bartlett, Mendez, or Alirez, but I think he can compete with anyone else at 141. At this point, I think worst case is a R16 exit. I think Jacob wins a gritty R12 match and is an AA this year.

149- Paniro's ability would have his best case being an NCAA champion, but I don't think he is consistent enough for that to be his true best case. I think best case is a mid to low AA finish. Worst case is 1-2 and similar to his freshman year. Someone said it in another thread, but Paniro is a wrestler where if you're a top seed, you don't want to see him and if you're a lower seed you probably do want to be matched up against him. No clue what will happen, but I hope he proves me wrong and is a high AA.

157- Before the Mizzou match, I was much more optimistic. Now, I think Cody is in a similar boat to Paniro. He can beat anyone, but can lose to anyone. This will be a big March for Chittum and I hope he does enough to AA and get on the stand.

165- Best case, steals a spot for NCAAs. Worst case, misses NCAAs. At this point, I don't think Riggins will be in Philly, but we will see when allocations are announced and what his draw in Tulsa looks like.

174- Best case is probably R16 in Philly, worst case is missing out on NCAAs. MJ will need to steal a spot, so Tulsa will be very important for him. I think MJ qualifies and then wins a match or two in Philly.

184- Best case is low AA, worst case R16. Evan is pretty consistent and I think the easiest to predict of all our wrestlers. I think he gets to the R12 this year.

197- I don't see Schon stealing a spot to get to nationals, but we will see.

Hwt- Best case he gets to Philly and wins a match. Worst case, he doesn't get an allocation and misses out on a wild card and doesn't qualify. I think Pnut gets to Philly and wins a match. Very good true freshman season and will get to redshirt and focus on improving next year.

Overall, we will for sure have 5 guys in Philly with realistic AA ambitions. I am hoping we qualify 8 total and get 2-3 AAs. It's going to be a grind, and we really need big tournaments from Paniro and Cody- especially with the logjam we have there. Another no-show from Paniro and you have to think Swiderski is the leader in the clubhouse for the spot next year since he is already proven as an AA. Then you'd have Paniro and Cody battling it out for 157. This season has been frustrating, but hopefully we have a good tournament to inject some momentum for what should be a very good squad in 2025-2026.
 

ISU22CY

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125- I think best case for Kysen is probably a R12 finish, worst case is a bad conference tournament in Tulsa and he doesn't get a bid to NCAAs. With how long he's been out, I am nervous about how he will look in Tulsa. I think he does end up doing enough to get to Philly and goes 2-2 and makes the R16.

133- Best case for Evan is an NCAA title- he can beat anyone at the weight. I think worst case is R12 finish. Most likely, Evan makes the semis and loses and then wins his consi semi and goes for 3rd and 4th. I love how he's been wrestling and I'm hopeful him being held out of Mizzou was truly precautionary and he's good to go in Tulsa.

141- Best case for Jacob is probably a 4th place finish- I am not sure I see him beating Bartlett, Mendez, or Alirez, but I think he can compete with anyone else at 141. At this point, I think worst case is a R16 exit. I think Jacob wins a gritty R12 match and is an AA this year.

149- Paniro's ability would have his best case being an NCAA champion, but I don't think he is consistent enough for that to be his true best case. I think best case is a mid to low AA finish. Worst case is 1-2 and similar to his freshman year. Someone said it in another thread, but Paniro is a wrestler where if you're a top seed, you don't want to see him and if you're a lower seed you probably do want to be matched up against him. No clue what will happen, but I hope he proves me wrong and is a high AA.

157- Before the Mizzou match, I was much more optimistic. Now, I think Cody is in a similar boat to Paniro. He can beat anyone, but can lose to anyone. This will be a big March for Chittum and I hope he does enough to AA and get on the stand.

165- Best case, steals a spot for NCAAs. Worst case, misses NCAAs. At this point, I don't think Riggins will be in Philly, but we will see when allocations are announced and what his draw in Tulsa looks like.

174- Best case is probably R16 in Philly, worst case is missing out on NCAAs. MJ will need to steal a spot, so Tulsa will be very important for him. I think MJ qualifies and then wins a match or two in Philly.

184- Best case is low AA, worst case R16. Evan is pretty consistent and I think the easiest to predict of all our wrestlers. I think he gets to the R12 this year.

197- I don't see Schon stealing a spot to get to nationals, but we will see.

Hwt- Best case he gets to Philly and wins a match. Worst case, he doesn't get an allocation and misses out on a wild card and doesn't qualify. I think Pnut gets to Philly and wins a match. Very good true freshman season and will get to redshirt and focus on improving next year.

Overall, we will for sure have 5 guys in Philly with realistic AA ambitions. I am hoping we qualify 8 total and get 2-3 AAs. It's going to be a grind, and we really need big tournaments from Paniro and Cody- especially with the logjam we have there. Another no-show from Paniro and you have to think Swiderski is the leader in the clubhouse for the spot next year since he is already proven as an AA. Then you'd have Paniro and Cody battling it out for 157. This season has been frustrating, but hopefully we have a good tournament to inject some momentum for what should be a very good squad in 2025-2026.
Great Breakdown so might as well give my predictions:

125- 1-2
133 - Finals
141 - 5/6th match
149- R12
157- 3/4th match
165- doesn't make it
174- R12
184- 7/8th match
197- doesn't make it
HWT - 1-2
 

JM4CY

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Great Breakdown so might as well give my predictions:

125- 1-2
133 - Finals
141 - 5/6th match
149- R12
157- 3/4th match
165- doesn't make it
174- R12
184- 7/8th match
197- doesn't make it
HWT - 1-2
I started going through weights and honestly I have no clue what to expect outside of the Frosty bros.
 

TheJackWePack5

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Strictly looking at the top Big 12 guys at each weight (without considering allocations and what it takes to earn one):

125 - likely top 5 seeds 1. Figueroa 2. Strickenberger 3. Spratley 4. Poulin 5. Jordan

Kysen can beat any of the top seeds other than Figueroa (my opinion), but can lose to a guy like Trever Anderson and miss nationals (will he have what is needed for an at-large?)

NCAA qualifier - needs to steal a bid (see above for at-large ?)

133 - 1. Frost 2. Farber 3. Serrano 4. Burwick 5. Wittcraft

Frost is the clear favorite here, Serrano and Burwick I think are the biggest threats to Evan.

- NCAA qualifier - lock

141 - 1. Ailirez 2. Happel 3. Frost 4. Jamison 5. Schwartz

Not sure that Jacob can hang with Ailirez (who has not wrestled a top schedule by any means), but he can absolutely be a Big 12 finalist.

- NCAA qualifier - lock

149 - 1. Realbuto 2. Paniro 3. Vasquez 4. McDougald 5. Wilochell

As stated above, Paniro could be a NCAA semifinalist, or a quick 0-2/1-2. I still consider him the favorite in this bracket especially if I can get there, giving him ample recovery time from weigh-ins.

- NCAA qualifier - lock

157 - 1. Chittum 2. Fish 3. Downey 4. Siebrecht 5. Hill

If this is indeed the seeding, I love Cody’s path to the finals. Unfortunately, I am not sure how he will get punished for his bad loss this past weekend, though he has wins over the other top guys. Fish is my biggest threat to win, he’s a big 157.

- NCAA qualifier - lock

165 - 1. Berraclough 2. Hall 3. Amine 4. Steed 5. Rhodes

Looking like 7 allocations for this weight (maybe 6, not sure if Steed has the matches), I think on a perfect day Riggins can beat a Thomsen or Rhodes, just don’t think it happens this year.

- NCAA qualifier - needs to steal a bid (no chance for at-large)

174 - 1. Hamiti 2. O’Toole 3. DeVos 4. Sax 5. Conley

Going to be interesting for MJ. I believe he can beat any of the guys outside of the top 3 and I think he’s clearly better than the guys below him. Going to be very draw dependent IMO.

- NCAA qualifier - needs to steal a bid (any shot at an at large?)

184 - 1. Keck 2. Plott 3. Berge 4. Bockman 5. Hawks

Very clear top 3 here. I believe Berge can push Plott for a spot in the finals vs Keck. I agree with the above that Bockman is so consistent. Not sure he has the firepower to upset either Plott or Berge.

- NCAA qualifier - lock

197 - 1. Surber 2. Novak 3. Voelker 4. Glazier 5. Bush

The crazy part here is, Schon is very likely the 6 seed (weakest weight in the Big 12). Unfortunately Bush won’t have the matches to earn allocation and think he will be the biggest threat to steal one of 4 spots.

- NCAA qualifier - needs to steal a bid (very unlikely at-large)

285 - 1. Hendrickson 2. Schultz 3. Herrera 4. Runyon 5. Nitzel

Could easily see Herrera as the 4 or 5 here. Very clear top 2 in this weight, and 3 through 6 could all be interchangeable. I do think Pnut will get an at large if he doesn’t earn an allocation (depending on who Mizzou goes with the league should have 5 maybe 6 spots)

NCAA qualifier - possible at large?

I’d put us right now at 6 very likely qualifiers, with 7 or 8 being possible.

My other takeaway is that the Mizzou dual could be costly with seeding for 157 and 285.
 

ISU_Cyclones

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Where would 4 AA's put us team wise? Wondering about high end/low end expectations team wise.
Somewhat hard to answer but Flo has us with 3 projected AA's (Frost 3, Johnson 8, Chittum 6) and sitting at 10th. Adding 1 AA at 8th (Frost is the closest ranked 9th) puts us approximately up to 8th place.
 
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ISU_Cyclones

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Somewhat hard to answer but Flo has us with 3 projected AA's (Frost 3, Johnson 8, Chittum 6) and sitting at 10th. Adding 1 AA at 8th (Frost is the closest ranked 9th) puts us approximately up to 8th place.
Once you start going down the rabbit hole though if Frost is sneaking into AA then it's fairly likely he's knocking UNI or Minnesota out of AA at that weight, who are the two teams directly ahead of us in projected rankings, so then you can climb more. It feels like 4th is our absolute ceiling and that's having a hell of a lot go right. For example let's say we have this (I know this is not realistic, just trying to set upper bound of possibility):

125: R12
133: 1st
141: 4th
149: 5th
157: 3rd
165: 1-2
174: R12
184: 7th
197 DNQ
285: 2-2

Then you get into the 60's team point wise, which puts us in contention for 4th but well behind 3rd. Then if you start going the other way...

125: DNQ
133: 5th
141: 2-2
149: 1-2
157: R12
165: DNQ
174: 0-2
184: 2-2
197 DNQ
285: 0-2

You end up in the mid teens point wise and mid 20's team standing wise with 10 points from frost. So lots of variability.
 
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csteve

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7 allocations at 165 means I'll, for some reason, keep believing Riggins can steal a spot. It'd be a home run in we can get 8 to NCAAs, 9 is the absolute best case if everything goes great.
A lot of people get hung up on number of qualifiers, but I focus more on the number of point scorers. I doubt Riggins would score any points at Nats, so his qualification doesn't matter much to me.
 

TheJackWePack5

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A lot of people get hung up on number of qualifiers, but I focus more on the number of point scorers. I doubt Riggins would score any points at Nats, so his qualification doesn't matter much to me.
For me it’s just more about representation and seeing guys hit accomplishments/keep improving.

Riggins or Schon stealing a bid would be incredible, mostly because it feels like both are a ways off.
 

csteve

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For me it’s just more about representation and seeing guys hit accomplishments/keep improving.

Riggins or Schon stealing a bid would be incredible, mostly because it feels like both are a ways off.
I can appreciate that
 

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