Bracket Discussion

ISUCyclones2015

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Would you guys want Louisville, New York, Vegas, or Kansas City for the Sweet 16?

I assume KC for most? I’m a sucker for Vegas and New York and I’m gonna be in Louisville that week anyway so they’re all winners to me
 

twincyties

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Would you guys want Louisville, New York, Vegas, or Kansas City for the Sweet 16?

I assume KC for most? I’m a sucker for Vegas and New York and I’m gonna be in Louisville that week anyway so they’re all winners to me
We would have little fan support in NYC. KC is nearly a home game, we will travel to Vegas, and people would make the trip to Louisville.

I was at the Garden when we lost to UConn which obviously sucked but it’s an experience I won’t forget.
 

twincyties

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Was looking through NET tonight and see we’re one of only 6 teams with at least 7 Q1 wins and no 2/3/4 losses.

Texas, Baylor, KU, Alabama, and Purdue the others. That’s a hell of a resume if we keep it up and says to me we can hang with anyone. I could see us laying an egg early if it’s one of those nights, but we’re not having them like we were last year. We hang on against OSU and TTU and we’re probably 5th in the country right now talking about a one seed. Would not surprise me to see us go deep this year if we can just keep our heads screwed on straight.

For example, I don’t see this team $hitting the bed against Miami last year
 
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NiceMarmot

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Here's my updated bracketology before the NCAA reveals their Top 16 tomorrow.

1676653276287.png

If Iowa State stays on the 4 line AND if Drake gets the Valley autobid, it would probably be the most likely 4/13 matchup for us considering how much the committee values geography during the placement of teams. Drake rising to the 12-line could be likely though.

If you use the Resumes tab at the Google Sheet I linked above and sort by Q1 or Q1/Q2 wins, ISU shows up high in both metrics. Go 3-2 down the stretch and that would mean 2 more Q1 wins plus B12 tourney opportunities. It would take a 1-4 finish to fall below the 5-line in my opinion.
 
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clone52

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Here's my updated bracketology before the NCAA reveals their Top 16 tomorrow.

View attachment 109762

If Iowa State stays on the 4 line AND if Drake gets the Valley autobid, it would probably be the most likely 4/13 matchup for us considering how much the committee values geography during the placement of teams. Drake rising to the 12-line could be likely though.

If you use the Resumes tab at the Google Sheet I linked above and sort by Q1 or Q1/Q2 wins, ISU shows up high in both metrics. Go 3-2 down the stretch and that would mean 2 more Q1 wins plus B12 tourney opportunities. It would take a 1-4 finish to fall below the 5-line in my opinion.
One minor note. If you are correct, they would move Iowa State to the East and Xavier to the Midwest. That would eliminate a Big 12 sweet 16 matchup in the Midwest division.
 
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NiceMarmot

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One minor note. If you are correct, they would move Iowa State to the East and Xavier to the Midwest. That would eliminate a Big 12 sweet 16 matchup in the Midwest division.
You're right, they likely would do that as long as it didn't make the regions unbalanced from a competitive standpoint, which this would not.

The 2019 tournament had 4-seed Virginia Tech lined up with 1-seed Duke in Sweet 16, but that was because Virginia/UNC were also 1-seed and Florida State was 4-seed in the other region. When a conference has more than four teams in the top 16, things can get funky.

I always found it weird in 2017 that ISU was the 5-seed in 1-seed Kansas's region, but once you get past the top 16, they start to ignore those types of things more easily as long as it's not a 1st or 2nd round conference rematch.
 

NiceMarmot

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Here's my updated bracketology before the NCAA reveals their Top 16 tomorrow.

View attachment 109762

If Iowa State stays on the 4 line AND if Drake gets the Valley autobid, it would probably be the most likely 4/13 matchup for us considering how much the committee values geography during the placement of teams. Drake rising to the 12-line could be likely though.

If you use the Resumes tab at the Google Sheet I linked above and sort by Q1 or Q1/Q2 wins, ISU shows up high in both metrics. Go 3-2 down the stretch and that would mean 2 more Q1 wins plus B12 tourney opportunities. It would take a 1-4 finish to fall below the 5-line in my opinion.

Some other updates before tomorrow's NCAA update from the top bracketology people out there. Be pretty surprised if ISU is not a 4-seed tomorrow in the early reveal.

 

cyclones500

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Regarding in-season bracket reveal: I agree ISU is probably a lock for 4 seed. No evidence to think it'd be a 3 and think resume is better than 5 line.

Link to a roundup of how teams have fared after in-season reveal, since the practice began in '17. A lot stayed somewhat close, but a few dropped. (This doesn't elaborate about the teams' remaining schedule between reveal and Selection Sunday).

 

cyclones500

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My best-guess prediction, in advance of bracket reveal.

[A] SOUTH | Louisville
1 Alabama (Birmingham)
2 Texas (Des Moines)
3 Marquette (Columbus)
4 Miami (Orlando)

[D] WEST | Las Vegas
1 Houston (Birmingham)
2 UCLA (Sacramento)
3 Gonzaga (Denver)
4 Iowa State (Albany)

MIDWEST | Kansas City
1 Kansas (Des Moines)
2 Arizona (Sacramento)
3 Tennessee (Greensboro)
4 Indiana (Albany)

[C] EAST | New York
1 Purdue (Columbus)
2 Baylor (Denver)
3 Virginia (Greensboro)
4 Kansas State (Orlando)

5 seeds ("first four out") (no specific order): Xavier, Saint Mary’s, UConn, San Diego State
 
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NiceMarmot

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Just finished updating my bracket and the current resumes for each team heading into the weekend.

I have Iowa State as a 4-seed and the 15th overall team. If we make the assumption that Iowa State wins the games they're favored in and lose the ones they're underdogs to finish 2-2 (and assuming no massive blowout that plummets their NET), the biggest threats at this point in passing ISU are:
  • UConn (honestly was surprised their resume wasn't top 16 last Saturday in the early reveal; it's better than Indiana's)
  • Indiana (especially if they upset Purdue on Saturday then win last 2 home games)
  • Creighton or Xavier with a Big East tourney run
  • St. Mary's if they win at Gonzaga and/or win WCC tourney (although then Gonzaga would/could theoretically drop)
  • Texas A&M if they just keep winning (if they finish 16-2 in SEC with a regular season finale win against Alabama plus 1-2 wins in SEC tourney, it's hard to imagine that resume not being a top-4 seed, even with their early struggles and bad losses)
  • Northwestern if they win out and/or go on a Big Ten tourney run
  • I just don't think there's enough there for that next group of SDSU, TCU, Duke, Providence, Arkansas, or Maryland to pass an Iowa State team that finishes 2-2.
  • I guess theoretically if Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, or Iowa win out AND win the Big Ten tourney, that team would accrue a bunch of Q1 wins, but it would come at the expense of other Big Ten teams (including Indiana and Northwestern). Also, it's just not very likely based on the quality of those teams that it would happen, and the Big Ten hurts itself by playing its tournament final on Sunday right before the bracket reveal.
Capture-bracket-0224023.PNG

Honestly, one of my favorite reasons I've done bracketology is I just love seeing the possible matchups that theoretically *could* happen assuming my seeding is in line with the committee once the actual "placing teams into regions" part of it begins. Some fun possibilities here:
  • Creighton/Drake 5-12 matchup
  • Kansas playing Illinois in a 1-8 in Des Moines. Think Self has only faced Illinois once at Kansas
  • Iowa State/VCU would just be a disgusting defensive battle
  • Purdue/Kentucky in round 2 would be fun
 
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cyfan92

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Just finished updating my bracket and the current resumes for each team heading into the weekend.

I have Iowa State as a 4-seed and the 15th overall team. If we make the assumption that Iowa State wins the games they're favored in and lose the ones they're underdogs to finish 2-2 (and assuming no massive blowout that plummets their NET), the biggest threats at this point in passing ISU are:
  • UConn (honestly was surprised their resume wasn't top 16 last Saturday in the early reveal; it's better than Indiana's)
  • Indiana (especially if they upset Purdue on Saturday then win last 2 home games)
  • Creighton or Xavier with a Big East tourney run
  • St. Mary's if they win at Gonzaga and/or win WCC tourney (although then Gonzaga would/could theoretically drop)
  • Texas A&M if they just keep winning (if they finish 16-2 in SEC with a regular season finale win against Alabama plus 1-2 wins in SEC tourney, it's hard to imagine that resume not being a top-4 seed, even with their early struggles and bad losses)
  • Northwestern if they win out and/or go on a Big Ten tourney run
  • I just don't think there's enough there for that next group of SDSU, TCU, Duke, Providence, Arkansas, or Maryland to pass an Iowa State team that finishes 2-2.
  • I guess theoretically if Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, or Iowa win out AND win the Big Ten tourney, that team would accrue a bunch of Q1 wins, but it would come at the expense of other Big Ten teams (including Indiana and Northwestern). And the Big Ten hurts itself by playing its tournament final on Sunday right before the bracket reveal.
View attachment 110087

Honestly, one of my favorite reasons I've done bracketology is I just love seeing the possible matchups that theoretically *could* happen assuming my seeding is in line with the committee once the actual "placing teams into regions" part of it begins. Some fun possibilities here:
  • Creighton/Drake 5-12 matchup
  • Kansas playing Illinois in a 1-8 in Des Moines. Think Self has only faced Illinois once at Kansas
  • Iowa State/VCU would just be a disgusting defensive battle
  • Purdue/Kentucky in round 2 would be fun
Nice bracket, I can tell you don't whip that together in 5 minutes like Lunardi...

Get ready for 30 from Jayden Nunn. If Xavier is healthy, we could really struggle against them. The South region in general is really tough..

Would love to trade spots with UCONN