Just finished updating my bracket and the current resumes for each team
heading into the weekend.
I have Iowa State as a 4-seed and the 15th overall team. If we make the assumption that Iowa State wins the games they're favored in and lose the ones they're underdogs to finish 2-2 (and assuming no massive blowout that plummets their NET), the biggest threats at this point in passing ISU are:
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- UConn (honestly was surprised their resume wasn't top 16 last Saturday in the early reveal; it's better than Indiana's)
- Indiana (especially if they upset Purdue on Saturday then win last 2 home games)
- Creighton or Xavier with a Big East tourney run
- St. Mary's if they win at Gonzaga and/or win WCC tourney (although then Gonzaga would/could theoretically drop)
- Texas A&M if they just keep winning (if they finish 16-2 in SEC with a regular season finale win against Alabama plus 1-2 wins in SEC tourney, it's hard to imagine that resume not being a top-4 seed, even with their early struggles and bad losses)
- Northwestern if they win out and/or go on a Big Ten tourney run
- I just don't think there's enough there for that next group of SDSU, TCU, Duke, Providence, Arkansas, or Maryland to pass an Iowa State team that finishes 2-2.
- I guess theoretically if Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, or Iowa win out AND win the Big Ten tourney, that team would accrue a bunch of Q1 wins, but it would come at the expense of other Big Ten teams (including Indiana and Northwestern). And the Big Ten hurts itself by playing its tournament final on Sunday right before the bracket reveal.
Honestly, one of my favorite reasons I've done bracketology is I just love seeing the possible matchups that theoretically *could* happen assuming my seeding is in line with the committee once the actual "placing teams into regions" part of it begins. Some fun possibilities here:
- Creighton/Drake 5-12 matchup
- Kansas playing Illinois in a 1-8 in Des Moines. Think Self has only faced Illinois once at Kansas
- Iowa State/VCU would just be a disgusting defensive battle
- Purdue/Kentucky in round 2 would be fun