Kinda bored tonight, so put together a preview for the week. TL;DR, root against ranked teams and for past opponents for ISU playoff chances. You probably knew that already.
Friday Night
San Diego State @ #15 Boise State (-23, 60% to make playoff per Bet365)
Boise is the odds-on favorite to get the G5 bid at this point. My heart wants to see Jeanty on the playoff stage. My head says a 12-1 Boise with a loss to #1 Oregon and wins over #22 Wazzu and UNLV (x2?) could maybe jump a 2+ loss B12 champ for a bye, so another loss wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Probably not going to happen this week though.
Early Afternoon
Minnesota (-3) @ #24 Illinois (7% to make playoff)
I suppose Illinois is live at 10-2 with two excusable losses (#1 Oregon, #3 PSU), but no wins of note (Michigan? Nebraska?). Weak 10-2/strong 9-3 resumes are usually where the top-12 cutline falls. They have a manageable closing slate, but being home dogs to Minny doesn’t bode well for them running the table.
#19 Ole Miss (-7, 34% to make playoff) @ Arkansas
If Ole Miss runs the table they’ll be safely in at 10-2 with a win over #2 Georgia. If they don’t beat Georgia at home next week, they’ll be 9-3 with a home loss to Kentucky and wins over…South Carolina? That game could be do-or-die for them, but I wouldn’t mind them getting tripped up in a losable matchup here. Arky is kind of live if they knock off Ole Miss, Texas, and Mizzou, but good luck with that.
Duke @ #5 Miami FL (-20.5, 81% to make playoff)
Miami’s 8-0 despite playing with fire a few times, and they’re running out of losable games. Even though they don’t have a ranked team on their regular season schedule, they’d probably have to figure out a way to lose twice to be in any real danger. Here’s hoping Duke isn’t too heartbroken after that SMU game and puts up a fight.
Air Force @ #21 Army (-21.5, 8% to make playoff)
I don’t think Army is a serious threat to pass a B12 champ because their schedule is atrocious outside of ND. They even managed to dodge all the top AAC teams. Credit where it’s due though, they are pounding their cupcakes like a top-25 team should.
#4 Ohio State (-3.5, 88% to make playoff) @ #3 Penn State (84% to make playoff)
The winner is basically a playoff lock, and the loser probably still has one mulligan left. Both teams will be heavily favored the rest of the way, but I feel tOSU has a better chance to slip up against surging Indiana and/or rival Michigan than PSU does of losing to their remaining slate. So I guess PSU is the lesser of two evils (in this particular instance).
Late Afternoon
#17 Kansas State (-13.5, 40% to make playoff) @ Houston
K-State staying strong would technically help our at-large chances, but our best way in is still winning the conference, and Wildcat losses clear the way for that to happen. Not really sold on Houston helping us out though. K-State could get into the playoffs at two losses with road wins over #23 Colorado, and maybe ranked/AAC champ Tulane.
Arizona @ UCF (-6)
Neither team is going anywhere, but multi-way tiebreakers in the B12 are pretty likely to go to conference SoS, so go UCF.
Florida v Georgia (-16.5, 90% to make playoff)
Despite the loss, Georgia already has dominant wins over #11 Clemson and #6 Texas. They can probably lose to Tennessee and Ole Miss and still be pretty comfortable at 9-3 given their schedule. So any chance of them collapsing has to start here. Meanwhile, Florida is our new favorite team this month, as they get shots at Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks.
Texas Tech @ #11 Iowa State (-13.5, 54% to make playoff)
I don’t need to explain the stakes here, but note the oddsmakers are a lot higher on our playoff chances than some of our fanbase. 54% implies we’re getting an at-large at 12-1, and have a good shot at 11-1 or 11-2 if we don’t win the conference. It would be nice if one of those 11 wins managed to be ranked at the end of the year though.
#1 Oregon (-15.5, 94% to make playoff) @ Michigan
Oregon’s making the playoff barring a rash of injuries and them dropping three of their last four to unranked teams. It might actually be better for us if they win to prevent Michigan from becoming a good win for the rest of the B1G hopefuls.
#13 Indiana (-7.5, 46% to make playoff) @ Michigan State
Hopefuls like Indiana, who continues to dominate a weak schedule. They’d have no big wins if they went 11-1 with a loss to tOSU, but 11-1 has always been comfortably in the top 10 in years past. 10-2 with a bad loss is another matter, so Sparty could help us out here.
Prime Time
Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3)
Either Iowa improves our resume or Iowa loses. Win-win for us.
Louisville @ #11 Clemson (-10.5, 63% to make playoff)
Clemson has been pounding not-great teams after getting pounded by Georgia in their opener. They’ll be favored in their remaining games, but four of their last five are losable, including this one to a Louisville team that’s hung around in big games this year. They can probably survive one more loss, but not two.
#10 Texas A&M (-2.5, 53% to make playoff) @ South Carolina
This is the best chance of an unranked team pulling an upset this week. It’s also pretty critical to A&M. Win this one and @Auburn in a few weeks and the Texas game is probably for an SEC title game berth instead of a playoff spot.
Kentucky @ #7 Tennessee (-16.5, 59% to make playoff)
Kentucky can’t score, and Tennessee doesn’t let other teams score, so this seems like a bad matchup. Tennessee doesn’t have a great resume though outside of the Bama win. They’ll be fine if all they do is drop a game to Georgia the rest of the way, but they wouldn’t look good if they dropped another one.
TCU @ Baylor (-3)
Much like Iowa, we either get a Baylor loss or a resume boost. And some tiebreaker help in this case.
#18 Pittsburgh (10% to make playoff) @ #20 SMU (-7.5, 34% to make playoff)
Pitt is not getting any respect, but they’ll get a chance to earn it either here or in a couple weeks against Clemson. Not sure they can lose both and get in at 10-2, but one good win changes everything for them. SMU is also working with no good wins so far, but outside of a CCG appearance they don’t have any more opportunities after this. So this is big for both teams.
