2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
We need Connor McCaffrey to show the team how to pass to the post.
You're all cheating m*********ers!
That is interesting and notable. Hopefully ISU can refocus on this area without letting other areas slip offensively. Sometimes when teams focus on not turning it over too much, they lose some of their "free flowing" and better offensive instincts and become more risk adverse and not as good offensively. I will say the defenses we've been playing in the Big XII are more physical and better than the ones earlier in the season, so maybe that's really the bigger part of the turnover issue?
Will be tough at Houston. They'll scratch and claw and come at us just like we do on defense. We shall see....
I think our guys felt like they had to force some things with Milan out of the lineup, as other teams started to collapse on everything in the paint, and I think that led to some bad habits. Plenty of time to work it out and get back to what they had been doing.
I think that is some of it too. There's no single cause.
Another is they sometimes get ahead of themselves trying to make a dynamite play for a teammate, throw a pass that will be a highlight reel or a turnover. They do that a lot on fast breaks trying to push it. Seems to me like the majority of the increased TOs are in transition.
The 2 keys for this team (at least on offense) are turnovers and shooting the 3. If they are good at both, they are just about unbeatable. One or the other, they're still an excellent team. Fail at both, it gets real dicey real fast.
Here is what the committee's top 10 would look like if you accounted for this weekends game results. (There's a couple places you could switch two teams, but not much more than that). After that it gets a little harder to put them in order, but the next three would likely be Purdue, Michigan, and St. John's.
On the right is TeamRankings' projected finish to the regular season for each team, which mainly tells you how hard their remaining schedule is. Auburn and Duke likely have 1 seeds about locked up unless they trip up. Alabama and aTm both have difficult remaining schedule so they have the most opportunity to rise or fall. For the other 6 teams, odds are high they will be a 1 seed if they win out, most will either have 1 or 2 more losses and will shift based on if its 1 or 2, and fall out of the top 10 with 3+ losses.
On the right is TeamRankings' projected finish to the regular season for each team, which mainly tells you how hard their remaining schedule is. Auburn and Duke likely have 1 seeds about locked up unless they trip up. Alabama and aTm both have difficult remaining schedule so they have the most opportunity to rise or fall. For the other 6 teams, odds are high they will be a 1 seed if they win out, most will either have 1 or 2 more losses and will shift based on if its 1 or 2, and fall out of the top 10 with 3+ losses.
| 1 | Auburn | 4.9-1.1 |
| 2 | Duke | 5.4-0.6 |
| 3 | Florida | 4.4-1.6 |
| 4 | Alabama | 3.4-2.6 |
| 5 | Tennessee | 3.4-1.6 |
| 6 | Houston | 4.5-1.5 |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 3.0-3.0 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 4.3-1.7 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 4.3-1.7 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 4.2-1.8 |
How about another update?
Iowa State NET 8 (3rd in Big 12 – UH 3, TTU 7)
Overall: 20-5 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 10-4
NET SOS: 38, NET NonCon SOS: 102
Q1 7-4
..Q1a 2-3 (1 N Auburn L-2, 7 A TTU W+OT, 9 A UA L-OT, 15 A KU L-17, 15 H KU W+17)
..Q1b 5-1 (44 A WVU L-7, 24 H Marquette W+11, 65 A ASU W+15, 28 H BU W+19, 64 A Iowa W+9, 75 A UCF W+12)
Q2 5-1
..Q2a 2-0 (45 H UC W+11, 74 N Dayton W+5)
..Q2b 3-1 (72 H UU W+23, 73 H KSU L-19, 75 H UCF W+25, 104 A CU W+10)
Q3 2-0 (81 H TCU W+30, 104 N CU W+28)
Q4 6-0 (203 H UNO W+32, 247 H UMKC W+26, 291 H JSU+42, 326 H UI Indy+35, 341 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 81.4
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 67.0
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 75.9
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 68.1
Conference contenders (current winning conf record) remaining schedules
Games against other contenders – (Ranked easiest to toughest)
BU (8-6) 0 Road, 2 Home
TTU (11-3) 1 Road, 1 Home
ISU (10-4) 1 Road*, 2 Home *ISU also has @ surging KSU…
BYU (8-6) 2 Road, 1 Home
UH (13-1) 2 Road, 2 Home
KU (8-6) 2 Road, 2 Home
UA (11-3) 3 Road, 1 Home
Notes
Iowa State NET 8 (3rd in Big 12 – UH 3, TTU 7)
Overall: 20-5 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 10-4
NET SOS: 38, NET NonCon SOS: 102
Q1 7-4
..Q1a 2-3 (1 N Auburn L-2, 7 A TTU W+OT, 9 A UA L-OT, 15 A KU L-17, 15 H KU W+17)
..Q1b 5-1 (44 A WVU L-7, 24 H Marquette W+11, 65 A ASU W+15, 28 H BU W+19, 64 A Iowa W+9, 75 A UCF W+12)
Q2 5-1
..Q2a 2-0 (45 H UC W+11, 74 N Dayton W+5)
..Q2b 3-1 (72 H UU W+23, 73 H KSU L-19, 75 H UCF W+25, 104 A CU W+10)
Q3 2-0 (81 H TCU W+30, 104 N CU W+28)
Q4 6-0 (203 H UNO W+32, 247 H UMKC W+26, 291 H JSU+42, 326 H UI Indy+35, 341 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 81.4
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 67.0
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 75.9
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 68.1
Conference contenders (current winning conf record) remaining schedules
Games against other contenders – (Ranked easiest to toughest)
BU (8-6) 0 Road, 2 Home
TTU (11-3) 1 Road, 1 Home
ISU (10-4) 1 Road*, 2 Home *ISU also has @ surging KSU…
BYU (8-6) 2 Road, 1 Home
UH (13-1) 2 Road, 2 Home
KU (8-6) 2 Road, 2 Home
UA (11-3) 3 Road, 1 Home
Notes
- ISU in top 12 of most results based (SOR, WAB) and predictive (BPI, POM, T-Rank) metrics except KPI (16).
- 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 7 H UA (Q1a)
- 73 A KSU (Q1b)
- 104 H CU (Q3)
- 107 A OSU (Q2b)
- 18 FEB - 104 H CU (Q3)
- 22 FEB - 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 25 FEB - 107 A OSU (Q2b)
- 01 MAR - 9 H UA (Q1a)
- 04 MAR - 36 H BYU (Q2a)
- 08 MAR - 73 A KSU (Q1b)
How is BYU a Quad 2a game when they're 36 yet K-State is a Quad 1b game at 73?
BYU game is in Ames. K State is on the road. They weight differently based on that.
Well, playing within 15 of ISU in Hilton was enough for Colorado. They are at NET 99 which (temporarily?) moves the @ CU game up to a Q2a win and the CU in Maui game up to a Q2b win. Still need CU to win at least 1 game to keep them from dropping back down below 100 NET.
Probably should root for them in home games against Baylor on Saturday and/or KU on Monday. They still also have a home game against TCU to end the season.
Interestingly CU beating TCU and/or BU would be the best outcome since ISU only plays those teams once while ISU played KU twice. KU would probably have to win out for the win over KU in Hilton to go back up to a Q1a win if it is even possible. KU is NET 21 now. They would have to get back up to at least NET 15 for it to be a Q1a win.
KSU has dropped to NET 76 which just drops the KSU loss in Hilton to a Q3 loss. KSU has an incredibly easy home stretch except for the home game against ISU to end the season. It would really help ISU to get that loss up to a Q2b (<76) or even Q2a (<56) if they could beat some of @UC, @UCF, ASU, CU. Like I said, incredibly easy home stretch for KSU.
Probably should root for them in home games against Baylor on Saturday and/or KU on Monday. They still also have a home game against TCU to end the season.
Interestingly CU beating TCU and/or BU would be the best outcome since ISU only plays those teams once while ISU played KU twice. KU would probably have to win out for the win over KU in Hilton to go back up to a Q1a win if it is even possible. KU is NET 21 now. They would have to get back up to at least NET 15 for it to be a Q1a win.
KSU has dropped to NET 76 which just drops the KSU loss in Hilton to a Q3 loss. KSU has an incredibly easy home stretch except for the home game against ISU to end the season. It would really help ISU to get that loss up to a Q2b (<76) or even Q2a (<56) if they could beat some of @UC, @UCF, ASU, CU. Like I said, incredibly easy home stretch for KSU.
To expand on this, here are the breakdowns of opponent NET rankings and how where the game is played affects what Quad a game is placed:
Q1a H 1-15, N 1-25, A 1-40
Q1b H 16-30, N 26-50, A 41-75
Q2a H 31-55, N 51-75, A 76-100
Q2b H 56-75, N 76-100, A 101-130
Q3 H 76-160, N 101-200, A 136-240
As you can see, NET 75 and NET 100 are pretty key numbers for a conference opponent that you play home and away. Being just above or below those numbesr can affect where two of your games are placed.
I would put it this way - the two constants for this team (offensively) are FT shooting and offensive rebounding. The two variables are turnovers and 3-pt shooting. The first two are always there (or should be) - but the latter are the ones that determine winning / losing in many cases.
We are pretty much unbeatable if we shoot 50% from 3, I know that
Haha many teams are with that percentage.
They've still won despite high/bad turnovers and have lost at least twice with low turnovers (but still bad) vs. Auburn (9 but the late one was a prime example) and KU (bit of a flush-it game).
I'd like to know if there's a way to determine efficiency/strength in games with like less than 10 turnovers, or types of turnovers.
For the fun of it - I went and looked at W/L for games under TJ based on 3-pt shooting. It's amazing, although maybe what you'd expect.
Games in which ISU has made 10 or more threes: 22-0
Games in which ISU has shot 50% or better from three: 12-1 (lone loss was that barn burner @ Houston last year)
going down a notch;
Games in which ISU has made 8 or more threes: 39-5
Games in which ISU has made 45% or better from three: 21-3
It definitely makes sense, especially with the defense being what it is, that if ISU is hot from 3, we win - but 22-0 is still an astounding statistic.
Games in which ISU has made 10 or more threes: 22-0
Games in which ISU has shot 50% or better from three: 12-1 (lone loss was that barn burner @ Houston last year)
going down a notch;
Games in which ISU has made 8 or more threes: 39-5
Games in which ISU has made 45% or better from three: 21-3
It definitely makes sense, especially with the defense being what it is, that if ISU is hot from 3, we win - but 22-0 is still an astounding statistic.
Is there anything for inside scoring?
I don't want to take away what's good when they're hitting threes but imo it's playing with fire to rely on it vs. getting inside looks which can impact the opponent's defense, etc.
So you’re saying it’s important to make shots in basketball?
