2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
26,913
41,594
113
Waukee
I'm in the camp that I don't have a problem with how we defended it. Bad luck happens...

I think in a perfect world, you go all out for a steal on the inbound pass and do whatever it takes to make contact with the ball. If you touch ball without a foul, that's essentially game over. If you get called for a foul, they still need a perfect storm of things to go their way.

My 2 cents...

I'm still in the camp you intentionally miss the second FT and send Jackson and Chat/Watson out there with orders to make them work for the rebound and then put their arms straight up in the air.

Chances are that alone chews up the time needed to get a shot off.
 

bawbie

Moderator
Staff member
Mar 17, 2006
54,358
47,031
113
Cedar Rapids, IA
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

1739726851476.png
 

chuckd4735

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 29, 2006
29,580
12,031
113
42
Lee's Summit, MO
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
It's been noticable, IMO.
 

qwerty

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 3, 2020
7,678
11,617
113
60
Muscatine, IA
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
I blame Wilson basketballs . . . . .
 

isufbcurt

Well-Known Member
Apr 21, 2006
27,526
44,482
113
46
Newton
Well this is information I wasn't aware of. Every player? Ever?

A shot with a 5% chance of going in is still a 5% shot. I can basically guarantee he doesn't make it last night if he shoots the same shot as he did vs. ISU.

Teams post practice videos all the time shooting half court shots.

Hell go to an actual game and see how many of them shoot half courters after warmups before they head to the locker room.
 
  • Like
Reactions: agentbear

interrobang

Well-Known Member
Oct 9, 2017
851
1,642
93
40
Ankeny
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
Didn't realize you could see those stats for individual players as well. Definitely a lot of stats to look at there!
 
D

Deleted member 71209

Guest
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327
We can beat anybody if we can stop turning it over. It's soft passes and bouncing the ball off legs type stuff that just drives me crazy.
 

madguy30

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 15, 2011
57,264
55,155
113
Teams post practice videos all the time shooting half court shots.

Hell go to an actual game and see how many of them shoot half courters after warmups before they head to the locker room.

So that's still every player on every team ever which was the original question?

Does that change it much from being a 5% chance of going in or whatever it is?

Dumb it all you want but people pointing at some other game with a miss that was defended different and going 'see?! That's all it takes!' is some high level CFism.
 

FinalFourCy

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2017
10,435
10,160
113
41
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327

A product of Lipsey’s injury and film/scouting?
 
  • Like
Reactions: ISUgrad2011

madguy30

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 15, 2011
57,264
55,155
113
We can beat anybody if we can stop turning it over. It's soft passes and bouncing the ball off legs type stuff that just drives me crazy.

There's a lot of possessions when it seems like they're playing like they're down 4 with 10 seconds left instead of playing with a small lead and lots of time left and needing to just take a moment to let things develop if it's not there.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
26,913
41,594
113
Waukee
Playing with Torvik (it is a great site) - this is really odd and I don't really have an explanation for it. Even adjusted for opponent, our turnover rate has skyrocketed over the last month or 6 weeks. Our 5 worst turnover games have been in the last 9. Prior to that, we were one of the best teams at limiting turnovers in the country, and now we can't stop turning it over all the time. And many are silly, unforced turnovers.

I don't think it's a matter of focus, or "turning it on" - but I'm not sure what to attribute it to - it seems to affect all of our players.

View attachment 143327

"Turnover Rate" is the # of turnovers per 100 offensive possessions.

Think of the scale on the right of the y-axis as a %.

Cincinnati is a perfect example -- they won but had 18 turnovers in 69 possessions.

18 / 69 = 26.09%
 

cyfanatic13

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 19, 2008
11,458
10,619
113
Thing I’ve noticed the most is how many turnovers lately have been on post entry passes. About 50/50 bad pass or trying to do much, and then our bigs just straight up don’t catch it cleanly sometimes. Jefferson also just seemed to be not quite on the same page yesterday with some of his passes
 

isufbcurt

Well-Known Member
Apr 21, 2006
27,526
44,482
113
46
Newton
So that's still every player on every team ever which was the original question?

Does that change it much from being a 5% chance of going in or whatever it is?

Dumb it all you want but people pointing at some other game with a miss that was defended different and going 'see?! That's all it takes!' is some high level CFism.

Do you take everything literally or do you just like being a tool?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: madguy30

cyatheart

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 18, 2008
9,433
6,941
113
49
Thing I’ve noticed the most is how many turnovers lately have been on post entry passes. About 50/50 bad pass or trying to do much, and then our bigs just straight up don’t catch it cleanly sometimes. Jefferson also just seemed to be not quite on the same page yesterday with some of his passes
Just not a great passing team really.