I don't think we can afford to look past anybody given the crap performances we have churned out recently.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
SEC is insanely good. But watch them underperform in March.
Let's get a couple wins stacked before we assume the team is cured from the horrendous play we saw over the past several weeks
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
There is definitely a wearing effect to playing through a really, really tough conference season. It's almost like the teams exhale a bit when they're finally through with it and I think the constant demands of tough competition can wear a team out both mentally and physically.
Interesting that they cut offense off at 21 but defense at 26. Here is top 26 for both. Teams in top 26 of both are:
Duke: 5 4 Total: 9
Houston: 8 3 Total: 11
Florida: 4 9 Total: 13
Auburn: 1 16 Total: 17
Iowa State: 18 7 Total: 25
Arizona: 14 18 Total: 32
Michigan State: 26 11 Total: 37
Illinois: 15 23 Total: 38
Maryland: 20 20 Total: 40
Michigan: 23 21 Total: 44
Marquette: 22 26 Total: 48
I would guess 7 out of Elite Eight will come from that list (there is always one upset special). And at least two of Final Four is from top five (total 25 or less).
Edit: looking over these top 25+1 lists, it is interesting the real outliers:
George Mason, San Diego St, UC Irvine, West Virginia, Cincinnati, top 26 Defense, over 100 in offense
Villanova, UConn top 26 offense, over 100 in defense
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How about an update?
Iowa State NET 10 (4th in Big 12 – UH 3, UA 7, TTU 9)
Overall: 18-5 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 8-4
NET SOS: 35, NET NonCon SOS: 101
Q1 6-4
..Q1a 2-4 (1 N Auburn L-2, 7 A UA L-OT, 9 A TTU W+OT, 11 A KU L-17, 11 H KU W+17, 38 A WVU L-7)
..Q1b 4-0 (24 H Marquette W+11, 64 A ASU W+15, 26 H BU W+19, 67 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 3-1
..Q2a 1-0 (75 N Dayton W+5)
..Q2b 2-1 (72 H UCF W+25, 73 H KSU L-19, 110 A CU W+10)
Q3 3-0 (79 H UU W+23, 81 H TCU W+30, 110 N CU W+28)
Q4 6-0 (201 H UNO W+32, 244 H UMKC W+26, 286 H JSU+42, 318 H UI Indy+35, 336 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 81.7
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 67.0
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 75.4
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 68.3
Notes
Iowa State NET 10 (4th in Big 12 – UH 3, UA 7, TTU 9)
Overall: 18-5 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 8-4
NET SOS: 35, NET NonCon SOS: 101
Q1 6-4
..Q1a 2-4 (1 N Auburn L-2, 7 A UA L-OT, 9 A TTU W+OT, 11 A KU L-17, 11 H KU W+17, 38 A WVU L-7)
..Q1b 4-0 (24 H Marquette W+11, 64 A ASU W+15, 26 H BU W+19, 67 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 3-1
..Q2a 1-0 (75 N Dayton W+5)
..Q2b 2-1 (72 H UCF W+25, 73 H KSU L-19, 110 A CU W+10)
Q3 3-0 (79 H UU W+23, 81 H TCU W+30, 110 N CU W+28)
Q4 6-0 (201 H UNO W+32, 244 H UMKC W+26, 286 H JSU+42, 318 H UI Indy+35, 336 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 81.7
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 67.0
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 75.4
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 68.3
Notes
- ISU in top 15 of most results based (SOR, WAB) and predictive (BPI, POM, T-Rank) metrics except KPI (23).
- 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 7 H UA (Q1a)
- 72 A UCF (Q1b)
- 73 A KSU (Q1b)
- 110 H CU (Q3)
- 11 FEB - 72 A UCF (Q1b)
- 15 FEB - 51 H UC (Q2a)
- 18 FEB - 110 H CU (Q3)
- 22 FEB - 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 25 FEB - 98 A OSU (Q2a)
- 01 MAR - 7 H UA (Q1a)
- 04 MAR - 41 H BYU (Q2a)
- 08 MAR - 73 A KSU (Q1b)
We have the exact same record and ranking (18-5 #10) as we did last year at this time. I’d be curious to know what our Ken Pom and net looked like at this exact same time last year as well.
Looking like we’re still set up for a strong finish and a two seed. Those 5 SEC teams in the top 10 are really going to cannibalize each other down the stretch, some really tough schedules. Feeling optimistic
I still think a #4 is low (#3 at worst right now) but...
KSU beat Arizona while shooting 1-19 from three?!? (Arizona show 2-22 from 3 - Love was 0-7 
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)
(This is going to piss you off) AND Caleb Love threw up another 50 foot prayer for the tie and didn't come close.. airballed it.KSU beat Arizona while shooting 1-19 from three?!? (Arizona show 2-22 from 3 - Love was 0-7
Love missed a 60 footer at the buzzer to tie too.KSU beat Arizona while shooting 1-19 from three?!? (Arizona show 2-22 from 3 - Love was 0-7
We always knew K-State had talent but just not coaching or leadership.
Turns out talent can work just fine on its own sometimes.
Torvik has them safely in the tournament if they can win out...
...and their schedule from here isn't too challenging.
At Provo and home against Iowa St. are probably their last great challenges.
Turns out talent can work just fine on its own sometimes.
Torvik has them safely in the tournament if they can win out...
...and their schedule from here isn't too challenging.
At Provo and home against Iowa St. are probably their last great challenges.
Actually helps our resume them continuing to win.
How does that work when every win they get gives a loss to another opponent, moving their ranking down? I suppose it helps a little more since we play them twice.
That loss was a Q3 loss at the time and is now a Q2 which is less damaging at least. I'm not sure if they can move up to Q1 since they spent the first two months of the season being pretty terrible.
I would be annoyed if I was a #1 seed and got K-State as the #9 in my region for the second round in a location like Wichita or Milwaukee... with the Lavender Kitties riding a nine-game regular season winning streak. Even if they lose in Kansas City, the Purple Mildcats are going to be terrifying in that setting.
It got me thinking how we always seem to end up down in manhattan late in the season so I decided to go back and look at the schedules:
Here's our last 20.
2025: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2024: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2023: @KSU on feb 18, home game Jan 24
2022: @KSU on february 26, home game feb 12
2021: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2020: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2019: @KSU on feb 16, home game jan 12
2018: @KSU feb 17, home game dec 29
2017: @KSU feb 15, home game jan 24
2016: home game feb 27, away jan 16
2015: @KSU feb 28, home jan 20
2014: @KSU mar 1, home jan 25
2013: @KSU feb 9, home game jan 26
2012: @KSU Feb 25, home jan 31
2011: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2010: final game of our regular season, senior night in manhattan
2009: home game feb 21, @KSU feb 3
2008: home in Ames on senior night, @KSU jan 26
2007: @KSU Feb 17, home jan 20
2006 @KSU feb 8, home jan 7
Only 3 games in 20 did we have our home game for the second game, and only once on senior night, vs KSU having us in Manhattan for senior night 6 separate times.
On a similar note, we've only finished our regular season at home 6 times in the last 20 years, and only once in the last decade (2019)
