2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[cyfan92]

Let's get past Tuesday before taking a serious look at our projected seed. Because the biggest benefit to ISU's seeding, outside of winning (obviously) is to win the next three convincingly. If we keep looking really good with Milan back, the more you can sell a story to slightly disregard that stretch he missed.. But we need more games of data before the national media will credit that approach.

 

[twincyties]

If we are really good enough for a 2 seed we should go 7-1 the rest of the way. If we do worse than 6-2 it will be a disappointment.

 

[VeloClone]

If we are really good enough for a 2 seed we should go 7-1 the rest of the way. If we do worse than 6-2 it will be a disappointment.

I would say 6-2 would be a minor disappointment only. @ Houston is going to be tough no matter how you slice it. But on top of that Arizona at home and @ KSU will be big challenges. Dropping only one of those two and dropping the other would only be a minor disappointment in my opinion.

 

[qwerty]

I would say 6-2 would be a minor disappointment only. @ Houston is going to be tough no matter how you slice it. But on top of that Arizona at home and @ KSU will be big challenges. Dropping only one of those two and dropping the other would only be a minor disappointment in my opinion.

He does say WORSE than 6-2 is a disappointment.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Just barely holding on for a #2 seed --

 

[VeloClone]

He does say WORSE than 6-2 is a disappointment.

Reading comprehension...

Thanks, I did misread that.

 

[NENick]

View attachment 142936

Just barely holding on for a #2 seed --

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How about with a win at KSU?
Without injuries, I believe that's the scenario.

 

[Sigmapolis]

How about with a win at KSU?
Without injuries, I believe that's the scenario.

Still a #2 but a much more secure one.

Torvik basically thinks...

High #2/low #1 is a distant possibility if you win out.

Only lost at Houston? Solid #2.

You get one more "good loss" mulligan after that one and can probably still maintain the #2 depending on how your competitors do. "Good loss" would be at KSU, maybe home UA, and maybe at UCF.

Anything more than that amount and you're sinking to a #3.

 

[NATEizKING]

UCF has lost 6 of 7 including BYU and Cinci at home. Feels like another 30 or bust.

 

[NATEizKING]

 

[Sigmapolis]

I wonder if that HAWKS across his chest gives him a rash. Oh well, at least it's not HAWKEYES.

4/9 Big 12

2/9 Big Ten

2/9 SEC

1/9 ACC

0/9 everybody else (including the Big East)

I know the bottom of the conference is softer but the top is still a murderers' row.

 

[madguy30]

UCF has lost 6 of 7 including BYU and Cinci at home. Feels like another 30 or bust.

At UCF though?

This will be a 'any win is good' kind of deal imo.

They'll be looking to correct their own issues and ISU only has a one game sample of being 'back'.

 

[4theCYcle]

View attachment 142936

Just barely holding on for a #2 seed --

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This is exactly why I had to explain Auburn losing to people on X was a bad thing for ISU. They'll keep slipping if Auburn is upset by teams around them with similar resumes.

 

[NENick]

Who is the largest red M in offense? Maryland?

5 teams appear in both, 3 from Big12. (And no sign of Kansas.)

 

[NATEizKING]

Who is the largest red M in offense? Maryland?

5 teams appear in both, 3 from Big12. (And no sign of Kansas.)

Yes Maryland, and Kansas is 39 O, so long ways to go.

 

[CoachHines3]

At UCF though?

This will be a 'any win is good' kind of deal imo.

They'll be looking to correct their own issues and ISU only has a one game sample of being 'back'.

in their last 10 games, UCF has the 147th ranked defense via Torvik. I'd venture to guess if you shrunk down that even more they are worse. I just can't seem to figure out how to do that.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Stayed in the top ten, I think it is nationally recognized that this team is really, really good, and a lot of them realize that this team has also been missing a big piece during this stretch.

 

[Ankency]

Who is the largest red M in offense? Maryland?

5 teams appear in both, 3 from Big12. (And no sign of Kansas.)

I count 6 in both
Auburn
Duke
Florida
Houston
Arizona
Iowa State

 

[KennyPratt42]

Last Saturday was big from a perception, narrative ,and metrics standpoint. Really stabilized things and give us the opportunity to move back into the mid single digits on the s-curve. I'd say 7-1 or 6-2 put us as a 2 seed, most other finishes put us as a 3 seed unless something real bad happens, and a win at Houston gives us a shot at climbing back into the 1 seed conversation.

 

[NENick]

I count 6 in both
Auburn
Duke
Florida
Houston
Arizona
Iowa State

I somehow missed Florida